In Cebu City, the Philippines' defence chief, who also chairs the regional defence ministers' gathering, asked his Southeast Asian counterparts to treat the coming climate disruption as a matter of collective security rather than only of weather. The Philippine weather bureau expects a very strong El Niño to take hold between September and December and linger into 2027, a warming of the Pacific whose dryness will reach first the fields and herds and then the tables of ordinary households. As the cost is already being reckoned in lost harvests and billions in farm losses, the question quietly p
Teodoro urges ASEAN defence ministers to expand food and energy cooperation as super El Niño looms
Asking militaries to count a drought as their business
Mark
Why is a defence minister talking about rainfall?
Mimi
Because Teodoro argues a drought hits food, water, electricity and connectivity all at once, and that has security implications. He's asking militaries to count that as their business.
Luke
Worth noting that's his framing. The reporting doesn't say what any ministers agreed to.
Mark
What is the forecast based on?
Mimi
Pagasa's climate models and evaluations. Its forecaster Ana Liza Solis said a very strong El Niño is likely between September and December, lasting into the first half of 2027.
Luke
"Likely" matters there. It's a projection, not a certainty.
Mark
Is there a number attached to the damage?
Mimi
Yes. The Department of Agriculture said on Oct. 21 it expects P20 billion in agricultural losses in the Philippines.
Luke
That's one agency's expectation, and it covers only the Philippines. We have no regional figure.
Mark
So what did the ministers actually decide?
Luke
Nothing is reported yet. Teodoro made a call for expanded cooperation; specific measures are unknown.
Mimi
He also stressed candor and trust, which suggests he knows members' diplomatic positions differ.
O Pulso
- A forecast very strong El Niño is bearing down on Southeast Asia, threatening water, power and food at once.
- The Philippine Agriculture Department projects P20 billion in farm losses, and the damage is already being counted.
- Defence Secretary Teodoro, who chairs the ASEAN defence ministers' meeting, is pushing the region to treat food and energy as security concerns.
- The talks in Cebu aim for candid exchanges and common ground, but whether they yield concrete food and energy measures remains open.
In Cebu City, the Philippines' defence chief, who also chairs the regional defence ministers' gathering, asked his Southeast Asian counterparts to treat the coming climate disruption as a matter of collective security rather than only of weather. The Philippine weather bureau expects a very strong El Niño to take hold between September and December and linger into 2027, a warming of the Pacific whose dryness will reach first the fields and herds and then the tables of ordinary households. As the cost is already being reckoned in lost harvests and billions in farm losses, the question quietly posed is whether a region of militaries, which has long known how scarcity breeds instability, will let the drought of water and power become a shared responsibility before the season turns.
On Wednesday in Cebu City, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr. addressed his counterparts from across Southeast Asia at the 20th ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting, which he chairs. He urged them to see the coming climate shift as a security question, not merely a weather one.
His warning rests on a forecast from the Philippine weather bureau, Pagasa, which expects a very strong El Niño between September and December, possibly lasting into 2027. Its effects are already visible in the sea and soon will be on the land: drier skies, dry spells and drought, with farms and livestock hit first and households after.
The Department of Agriculture has already put a figure on the damage, projecting P20 billion in losses to the sector. Teodoro asked ministers to speak frankly and in a spirit of trust and Asian solidarity, and to look for common ground. Whether that candor becomes concrete measures on food and energy before the meeting ends is what remains to be seen.
On Wednesday in Cebu City, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro Jr. stood before his counterparts from across Southeast Asia and made a case that sounded less like a defence briefing than a weather warning. Speaking at the 20th ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting, which he chairs, he asked the region's militaries to widen their idea of security to include food, water and electricity.
His reasoning was tied to a specific forecast. Southeast Asia, he said, is bracing for a "super El Niño," one that will affect food, water, electricity and connectivity in each of the member countries. In his words, that carries serious potential security implications. He also pointed to supply chain strain caused by conflicts beyond the region's shores, and said there is value in expanding cooperation to secure food and energy supplies.
The forecast comes from the Philippine weather bureau, Pagasa. At a climate forum last month, the agency said a "very strong" El Niño was likely to emerge between September and December and could persist into the first half of 2027. Ana Liza Solis, chief of Pagasa's Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section, said the projection rests on climate models and evaluations. El Niño is already strong, she said, and a very strong event is likely during the September-to-November and October-to-December seasons.
Pagasa describes El Niño as an unusual rise in average sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, producing warmer waters. For the Philippines, that means below-normal rainfall, dry spells and drought in several areas. The effects reach the agricultural and livestock industries first and, ultimately, a large part of the population.
The cost is already being counted. On Oct. 21, the Department of Agriculture said it expects the country's agricultural sector to lose P20 billion because of El Niño.
Teodoro also used his opening remarks to set a tone for the week of talks. He acknowledged that ASEAN members follow their own diplomatic policies, but said he hoped ministers could discuss pressing issues openly and in an "atmosphere of trust." As defence and military practitioners, he said, they know the threats in the region and how those threats affect citizens' safety and regional stability. He hopes for frank and open exchanges in a spirit of candor and Asian solidarity, and believes such discussions can help ministers find common ground on shared challenges.
What to watch now is whether the call for expanded cooperation on food and energy security turns into concrete measures before the meeting ends.
Citações Notáveis
This initiative gains in importance as Southeast Asia braces for a super El Niño, which will likewise affect food, water, electricity, and connectivity in our respective countries.— Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr.
A very strong El Niño is likely to emerge during the September-October-November and October-November-December seasons.— Ana Liza Solis, Pagasa
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