Little more than a month before American voters decide which party will steer the House through the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency, the House still belongs to no one in particular, with Democrats holding a projected 215 seats to Republicans' 201 and 19 races too close to call. Much of the uncertainty traces back to a single chain of consequence: a Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act that loosened limits on how states could draw districts, and a wave of mid-decade redrawing that followed across the South, Florida, and the Midwest. Ten seats now held by Democrats have b
Ten Democrat-Held House Seats Republicans Could Flip as Midterm Sprint Begins
The majority is still anyone's to claim.
Mark
Why does this list matter more than the overall 215-201 number?
Mimi
Because the topline looks comfortable for Democrats, but these ten seats show where the map itself changed. Many lines were redrawn after the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling.
Mark
Which seats are most clearly lost for Democrats?
Mimi
Alabama's 2nd and Louisiana's 6th. Both rankings say Republican, and the Alabama district would have backed Trump by about 14 points.
Luke
Worth noting that those margins are 270ToWin's calculations of how past votes would have landed on new lines. They're not predictions of this November.
Mark
Is there any seat where the Democrats look better off?
Mimi
Moskowitz in Florida's 25th. Fox has it leaning Democratic, partly because of his bipartisan record and his emergency management work under DeSantis.
Luke
But Cook rates the same seat a toss-up, so the two forecasters disagree. And the confidence there rests on a Democratic expectation, not on any polling cited here.
Mark
What about Maine and Ohio?
Mimi
Maine is open after Golden's retirement, with Paul LePage running. In Ohio, Kaptur has beaten Republican redistricting attempts since 1982.
Luke
Her history is real, but it doesn't guarantee anything this time. The article also gives no polling for most of these races, and this is a Fox piece, so the ratings are Fox's and Cook's, not a vote count.
El Pulso
- A Supreme Court ruling on the Voting Rights Act has cracked open the map, and states across the South are redrawing districts mid-decade.
- Democratic seats that once looked safe now carry Trump-leaning margins, leaving incumbents scrambling to rebuild their coalitions.
- Retirements, rival candidates, and member-versus-member maneuvers are reshaping the battlefield district by district.
- Louisiana's delayed December general election and Texas's Hispanic vote in the 35th may decide whether Republicans capture the House.
Little more than a month before American voters decide which party will steer the House through the final two years of Donald Trump's presidency, the House still belongs to no one in particular, with Democrats holding a projected 215 seats to Republicans' 201 and 19 races too close to call. Much of the uncertainty traces back to a single chain of consequence: a Supreme Court decision on the Voting Rights Act that loosened limits on how states could draw districts, and a wave of mid-decade redrawing that followed across the South, Florida, and the Midwest. Ten seats now held by Democrats have become places where a shift of a few points, or a few thousand voters moving across a line, could change who holds the gavel. Whether that shift arrives is a question that will be answered in precincts, not in predictions.
Just over a month before voters choose who controls Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency, Fox News' latest Power Rankings give House Democrats a lead of 215 seats to 201. Nineteen races remain toss-ups, though, so the majority is still open. Fox News has now named ten Democratic-held seats where Republicans see a real chance to flip, and most of those risks trace back to redistricting.
The story begins at the Supreme Court. A 2023 ruling pushed Alabama to create a second Black opportunity district, and the new lines helped Rep. Shomari Figures win a seat that had belonged to Republicans. This year, the Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais narrowed how the Voting Rights Act can be used in congressional maps, opening the door for southern states to redraw districts meant to give minority voters more representation. Alabama's 2nd now leans toward Trump by roughly 14 points, and both Fox and Cook rate it likely Republican. Louisiana's 6th followed the same path. Rep. Cleo Fields is retiring, and the new map dilutes the district's Democratic-leaning Black population. Gov. Jeff Landry delayed the general election to Dec. 12.
Florida supplies four of the ten. Rep. Darren Soto's 9th now favors Trump by nearly 18 points. Rep. Kathy Castor, who has held her Tampa-area seat since 2013, faces former state lawmaker Mike Beltran in a redrawn 14th that moves toward rural and suburban voters. Lois Frankel's open 22nd, where Democrat Pia Dandiya faces Republican Marine Casey Askar, is a toss-up. Jared Moskowitz is running in the 25th, which Trump would now have carried by nearly 10 points. His bipartisan record and his time running emergency management under Gov. Ron DeSantis give Democrats some hope.
Elsewhere, Maine's 2nd opened when Rep. Jared Golden retired, and Republicans have put forward former Gov. Paul LePage. North Carolina's 1st, where Rep. Don Davis faces Laurie Buckhout, has been reshaped to widen Trump's margin. In Texas, Rep. Greg Casar is leaving the 35th for the neighboring 37th, and the open seat leans Republican if the area's large Hispanic population shifts right. In Ohio, Rep. Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in congressional history, has survived earlier redistricting and now faces a district nudged toward Republicans.
Republicans also argue that the Democratic Party's left flank could push it further than most voters want, which may matter in close races. For now, the watch list is clear: the Hispanic vote in Texas's 35th and Louisiana's December general election could settle the final House margin.
Just over a month before voters decide who controls Congress for the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency, the most recent Fox News Power Rankings give House Democrats a lead: 215 projected seats to 201 for Republicans. But 19 races are rated toss-ups, so the majority is still open. Fox News has now listed ten Democrat-held seats where Republicans see a real chance of a pickup, and most of them trace back to redistricting.
The starting point is the Supreme Court. A 2023 decision ordered Alabama to draw a second Black opportunity district before the 2024 election, and the resulting lines helped Rep. Shomari Figures win a seat previously held by Republican Barry Moore. Earlier this year, the court's ruling in Louisiana v. Callais sharply limited how the Voting Rights Act is enforced when it comes to racial considerations in congressional maps. That opened the way for southern states to redraw districts built to give minority voters more representation. Under Alabama's new lines, the 2nd District would have backed Trump by roughly 14 points in 2024, according to 270ToWin. Both Fox and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rate it likely Republican.
Louisiana's 6th District is the other direct product of that ruling. Rep. Cleo Fields is retiring, and Republicans redrew the district to dilute its Black population, which voted mostly Democratic in 2024, by adding more Republican-leaning areas. Because of the ruling, Gov. Jeff Landry signed legislation pushing the state's House primaries to Nov. 3 and the general election to Dec. 12. Fox and Cook both project the seat going Republican.
Florida accounts for four of the ten. In the 9th, Rep. Darren Soto, seeking a sixth term, now has a district that would have gone for Trump by nearly 18 points; Fox calls it lean Republican and Cook likely Republican. In the 14th, Rep. Kathy Castor, in Congress since 2007 and representing the Tampa-area district since 2013, faces former state lawmaker Mike Beltran. The new lines drop Democratic-leaning areas around St. Petersburg for more rural and suburban territory, and Trump would have won by 10.5 points. Both rankings call it a toss-up. The 22nd was redrawn in a way that could have pitted Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz against each other, but both ran elsewhere. That leaves retiring Rep. Lois Frankel's seat open, with Democrat Pia Dandiya, a political newcomer, facing Republican businessman and Marine Casey Askar. Trump would have carried it by about 10 points, and both rankings say toss-up. Moskowitz is running in the 25th, which went from a Harris win by single digits to a district Trump would have won by nearly 10. His bipartisan record and his time as emergency management director under Gov. Ron DeSantis give Democrats some hope; Fox has it leaning Democratic, Cook a toss-up.
Elsewhere, Maine's 2nd opened up with the retirement of Rep. Jared Golden, a moderate who often broke with his party on immigration and tariffs. Trump won it by 9 points in 2024, and Republicans have former Gov. Paul LePage. Fox says toss-up; Cook says likely Republican. In North Carolina's 1st, Rep. Don Davis faces Laurie Buckhout, whom he beat by less than 2 points in 2024, under new maps that widened Trump's margin. Fox calls it a toss-up and Cook leans slightly Republican.
In Texas, Republicans began the national redistricting fight with a map meant to net up to five seats. Among them is the 35th, held by Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Greg Casar, who is now running in the neighboring 37th. Trump would have won the open 35th by roughly 10 points, but a Republican win depends heavily on its large Hispanic population shifting right again. Both rankings lean slightly Republican. In Ohio, Rep. Marcy Kaptur's district was nudged toward Republican areas, and Trump would have carried it by 10.5 points. Kaptur, first elected in 1982, is the longest-serving woman in congressional history and the longest-serving current House member from Ohio, and she has survived earlier Republican redistricting efforts. Both rankings call it a toss-up.
Republicans also see an opening in the Democratic Party's left flank, arguing that victories by socialist candidates could pull it further left than most Americans. The thing to watch is Texas's Hispanic vote in the 35th, and Louisiana's December general election, which could settle the final margin.
Citas Notables
Fox News and the Cook Political Report both rate Alabama's 2nd District as likely Republican after redistricting.— Fox News Power Rankings and Cook Political Report
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