In the narrow waters where the Gulf funnels its oil toward the world, a tanker burned off the coast of Oman on a Sunday in November, one of several ships struck that day for taking routes Iran's Revolutionary Guards had declared off limits. Markets have grown hopeful that the long war with Iran is cooling, and crude prices have slipped to two-month lows on that hope. Yet the sea and the shoreline tell a harsher story, one of rising attacks, drifting oil, and seafarers who have paid the price since the conflict began in late February. It is a reminder that a calm in the price of oil is not alwa
Tankers Keep Burning in Gulf Despite Hopes for De-escalation in Iran War
At least 25 seafarers have been killed in attacks on shipping in the region since the conflict began in late February, according to the International Maritime Organization.
Oil prices fell to two-month lows while tankers kept burning
Mark
Oil is at a two-month low, yet tankers are still burning. Why the gap?
Mimi
Markets are pricing in signals from Washington: officials downplaying more military action, and a softer tone from Trump since the midterms. The ships are responding to a different set of decisions, made by the Revolutionary Guards and others.
Luke
Careful, though. The softer tone is an analyst's reading, not a policy change anyone has announced. The price drop rests on that interpretation.
Mark
What did Iran say about Sunday's strikes?
Mimi
Iranian state media, citing the IRGC Navy, said three tankers were hit for using unauthorised routes. Separately, the Guards said two tankers burned after hitting mines on that route.
Luke
Both are Iranian claims. Reuters verified the video of the Messi burning and the satellite smoke, but not the reasons given. And the Tuesday tanker hit near Lima was attributed to no one by UKMTO.
Mark
The US is part of this too, isn't it?
Mimi
Yes. It's enforcing a blockade of Iranian ports, and Central Command says an aircraft disabled a St Kitts-flagged cargo vessel leaving after an Iranian port call.
Mark
And the environmental side?
Mimi
Verified video shows oil on Oman's shores, and satellite images show spills off Oman and the UAE.
Luke
Scale is unknown. Oman hasn't commented, and nothing here quantifies the spills or says how much oil is involved.
Mark
What's the firmest number we have?
Mimi
The IMO's: 130 confirmed incidents since late February and at least 25 seafarers killed. October's 37 attacked ships come from the Washington Institute, a different source.
Le Pouls
- A refined products tanker, the Navig8 Messi, was set ablaze off Oman after Revolutionary Guards declared its route unauthorised.
- Crude prices fell to two-month lows even as attacks on ships continued to climb, leaving markets and the sea pointing in opposite directions.
- October saw 37 ships attacked, the worst month of the war, and no sign has emerged that November will bring relief.
- Oil has begun washing onto Omani shores while spills spread off both Oman and the UAE, and no one has yet taken responsibility for the damage.
- A US blockade of Iranian ports continues, with American aircraft disabling a cargo vessel that tried to leave regional waters.
- At least 25 seafarers have died in 130 incidents since February, and the coming weeks will test whether the spills grow and the blockade holds.
In the narrow waters where the Gulf funnels its oil toward the world, a tanker burned off the coast of Oman on a Sunday in November, one of several ships struck that day for taking routes Iran's Revolutionary Guards had declared off limits. Markets have grown hopeful that the long war with Iran is cooling, and crude prices have slipped to two-month lows on that hope. Yet the sea and the shoreline tell a harsher story, one of rising attacks, drifting oil, and seafarers who have paid the price since the conflict began in late February. It is a reminder that a calm in the price of oil is not always a calm in the world it is drawn from.
On Sunday, videos showed the Singapore-flagged tanker Navig8 Messi burning off the coast of Oman, verified by Reuters and captured in satellite imagery as a column of black smoke. Iranian state broadcasting, citing the Revolutionary Guards Navy, said the Messi was one of three tankers struck for using what Tehran called unauthorised routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel is managed by Navig8, which is majority owned by ADNOC Logistics & Services, and neither company has answered questions about the attack.
The fires arrived at a strange moment. Crude prices dropped to two-month lows this week after US officials played down the need for further military action, and traders seem to be betting that the war is winding down. The shipping record does not agree. The Washington Institute counted 37 ships attacked in October, the worst month of the conflict, and there is little evidence that attacks eased in November.
The damage is also reaching the shore. Video verified by Reuters showed oil washing up along Oman, and satellite images revealed slicks off both Oman and the UAE. Oman's government has not commented. Attacks have spread beyond the water as well, with Houthi missiles striking an Aramco office building in Riyadh, though Saudi officials reported no injuries.
The heaviest cost has been borne by people at sea. The International Maritime Organization has confirmed 130 incidents since late February, and at least 25 seafarers have been killed. The questions now are whether the oil spreads further and whether the American blockade of Iranian ports holds, because falling oil prices have not brought any real pause to the attacks.
On Sunday, videos posted to social media showed a medium-sized refined products tanker, the Singapore-flagged Navig8 Messi, burning off the coast of Oman. Reuters verified the footage. A satellite image taken the same day by the European Union's Copernicus Sentinel-2 showed a large cloud of black smoke over the same spot.
The Messi was one of three tankers struck that day, according to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, which cited the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. The Guards' stated reason was that the ships had used "unauthorised routes" through the Strait of Hormuz. The vessel is managed by Navig8, which is majority owned by ADNOC Logistics & Services. Neither company replied to Reuters' emailed requests for comment.
The fires come at an odd moment for the markets. On Tuesday, crude prices fell to two-month lows after US officials downplayed the need for more military action against Iran. Analysts have pointed to a more conciliatory tone from President Donald Trump since the Republicans lost ground in the November 3 midterm elections. Traders, in other words, are betting the war is cooling.
The shipping data does not yet say the same. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy counted 37 ships attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the war began. Reuters reported little sign that attacks were easing in November. On Tuesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said another tanker had been struck northeast of Oman's Lima, without saying who was responsible. In a separate statement, the Revolutionary Guards Navy said two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on the "unauthorized route" in the strait.
The United States is also acting at sea. American forces continue to enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports. In the latest case, a US military aircraft fired on and disabled a St Kitts-flagged cargo vessel that tried to leave regional waters on Saturday after visiting an Iranian port, US Central Command said.
The attacks are now leaving a mark on the coastline. A video shared on social media on Monday, and verified by Reuters, showed oil reaching the shores of Oman. Satellite imagery showed oil spills off the coast of both Oman and the UAE. The Omani government did not respond on Tuesday when Reuters asked about the video.
On land, energy infrastructure and civilian sites have been hit as well. Iran and its regional allies have struck targets including offices of Saudi Aramco, the world's largest oil company. Video verified by Reuters showed damage to an Aramco office building in Riyadh after missile strikes claimed by the Houthis on November 8. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry described an attempted attack in which debris caused limited damage, with no injuries or deaths.
The human toll is mostly at sea. The International Maritime Organization has confirmed 130 incidents in the region since the conflict began in late February, most of them attacks, and at least 25 seafarers have been killed. What to watch now is whether the oil spills off Oman and the UAE grow, and whether the US blockade of Iranian ports holds, since falling oil prices have not been matched by any drop in attacks.
Citations marquantes
Three tankers were hit for using 'unauthorised routes' through the strait.— Iranian state broadcaster IRIB, citing the IRGC Navy
A building belonging to Aramco in Riyadh was targeted in an attempted attack, with limited damage from debris and no injuries.— Saudi Energy Ministry (paraphrased)
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