Five years after reclaiming Kabul, the Taliban govern Afghanistan with total formal authority yet diminishing practical legitimacy — a paradox that defines fragile states across history. They have unified the instruments of power while alienating the conditions that make power sustainable: economic vitality, international recognition, and the consent, however reluctant, of the governed. What the world watches now is not a regime on the verge of collapse, but one caught in the slow erosion that comes when force substitutes indefinitely for governance.
Taliban Mark 5 Years in Power as Cracks Emerge in Afghan Control
Millions of Afghans face humanitarian crisis under Taliban rule, including severe restrictions on women's rights, economic collapse, and displacement.
Control through force is not the same as legitimacy through governance
Mark
When you say the Taliban's control is showing cracks, what does that actually look like on the ground? Are we talking about organized insurgency or something more diffuse?
Mimi
It's both, really. You have the Islamic State affiliate conducting suicide bombings in Kabul. You have regional warlords and old mujahideen networks that never fully submitted to Taliban authority. But you also have the everyday kind of fracturing—unpaid soldiers, corruption, local commanders making their own deals. The Taliban can still kill anyone who openly challenges them. What they can't do is make people want to live under their rule.
Mark
The economic collapse seems central to this. How much of the instability is actually about money?
Mimi
It's enormous. The Taliban inherited a state that was entirely dependent on foreign aid. When that dried up, there was no tax base to replace it, no functioning economy to draw revenue from. Now they can't pay their security forces reliably. A soldier who hasn't been paid in months is a recruitment target for a rival group. That's not ideology—that's survival.
Mark
And the restrictions on women—are those a cause of instability or a symptom of how the Taliban govern?
Mimi
Both. They're ideologically committed to those restrictions, so they're not going to reverse them. But the effect is to remove half the population from any productive role in society. You lose teachers, doctors, engineers, business owners. The economy contracts further. The humanitarian crisis deepens. It's a policy that makes their governance problem worse, not better.
Mark
So what's the endgame here? Does the Taliban eventually consolidate and stabilize, or does this spiral?
Mimi
That's the open question. They have the military capacity to suppress opposition indefinitely. But suppression isn't the same as solving the underlying problems. If the economy doesn't improve, if rival groups keep finding recruits, if the international isolation continues—then you're looking at a state that rules through force but never achieves stability. That can persist for years. But it's not sustainable indefinitely.
The Pulse
- The Taliban control every formal institution in Afghanistan, yet their monopoly on violence is being tested by IS-K bombings, mujahideen-rooted armed factions, and fighters who see opportunity in a regime stretched thin.
- Economic collapse has become a weapon against the regime itself — unpaid soldiers are defecting, banks are barely functioning, and the foreign aid that once kept Afghanistan afloat has been severed by international non-recognition.
- Millions of Afghan civilians bear the compounded weight of food insecurity, displacement, and a systematic exclusion of women from education and professional life that has gutted the country's productive capacity.
- Regional neighbors — Pakistan, Iran, Central Asian states — are growing restless, withdrawing the quiet tolerance that once gave the Taliban strategic breathing room along their borders.
- The Taliban's answer to every pressure has been repression, but arrests and executions cannot resolve the underlying arithmetic: a population that is hostile, an economy that cannot pay its enforcers, and rivals who are multiplying.
Five years after reclaiming Kabul, the Taliban govern Afghanistan with total formal authority yet diminishing practical legitimacy — a paradox that defines fragile states across history. They have unified the instruments of power while alienating the conditions that make power sustainable: economic vitality, international recognition, and the consent, however reluctant, of the governed. What the world watches now is not a regime on the verge of collapse, but one caught in the slow erosion that comes when force substitutes indefinitely for governance.
Five years after sweeping back to power, the Taliban hold Afghanistan with a grip that is total in form but increasingly fragile in substance. They command the military, the courts, the bureaucracy — every lever of the state. Yet the very completeness of their control has carried a steep price: the international community has refused recognition, foreign aid has dried up, the currency has collapsed, and millions of Afghans face food insecurity and the absence of basic services.
Into this economic freefall, cracks are opening in the Taliban's monopoly on violence. The Islamic State's Afghan affiliate continues its campaign of bombings and assassinations. Armed groups with roots in the old mujahideen factions have refused to disarm or integrate. These rivals sense vulnerability — a regime managing too many fronts with too few reliable resources. Soldiers who go unpaid become recruits for someone else.
The Taliban's response has been repression: arrests, executions, mass deployments of security forces. But force has not resolved the deeper problem. The exclusion of women from education and most professional roles has not only caused immense human suffering — it has removed a critical share of Afghanistan's workforce from economic life, compounding the very collapse the regime cannot afford.
Regionally, the Taliban find themselves increasingly alone. Pakistan, once a patron, is frustrated by militant groups operating freely from Afghan soil. Iran and Central Asian neighbors watch the border with anxiety. Russia and China expect order; the Taliban are struggling to provide it.
What has emerged is a government that achieved power through force but has not earned legitimacy through governance. The Taliban will almost certainly remain in control — their military superiority over any single challenger is not in doubt. The harder question is whether the accumulating pressures of economic ruin, insurgent activity, and international isolation will eventually force a confrontation with the limits of ruling by force alone.
Five years into their rule, the Taliban hold Afghanistan with an iron grip that reaches into every corner of the country—yet the foundation beneath that control is beginning to shift. What once looked like a consolidated takeover is now showing visible fractures, with rival militant groups testing the regime's authority and internal divisions threatening the unity the Taliban claimed to have achieved when they swept back to power in 2021.
The Taliban's control remains absolute in the formal sense. They command the military, the police, the courts, and the bureaucracy. They have eliminated the parallel power structures that plagued previous Afghan governments. But this very totality has come at a cost. The international community has largely refused to recognize their government, cutting off the foreign aid that once propped up Afghanistan's economy. The country's currency has collapsed. Banks are barely functioning. Unemployment is rampant. The humanitarian situation has deteriorated sharply, with millions of Afghans facing food insecurity and lacking access to basic services.
Within this context of economic freefall and international isolation, cracks are appearing in the Taliban's monopoly on violence. Splinter groups and rival militant organizations have begun launching attacks against Taliban positions and officials. The Islamic State's Afghan affiliate, which the Taliban has fought bitterly, continues to carry out bombings and assassinations. Other armed groups, some with roots in the old mujahideen factions, have refused to fully disarm or integrate into the Taliban's military structure. These groups see opportunity in the Taliban's stretched resources and the regime's vulnerability to pressure on multiple fronts.
The Taliban's response has been characteristically harsh. They have arrested suspected dissidents, executed prisoners they claim are militants, and deployed security forces to suppress any hint of organized opposition. But repression alone has not solved the underlying problem: a significant portion of Afghanistan's population remains hostile to Taliban rule, and the economic collapse has made it harder for the regime to pay its soldiers and security personnel reliably. Unpaid fighters are more likely to defect, to be recruited by rival groups, or to turn to banditry.
The restrictions the Taliban have imposed on women have also deepened the humanitarian crisis and fueled resentment. Girls are barred from secondary education. Women are excluded from most government jobs and professional roles. These policies have not only caused immense suffering but have also removed a substantial portion of Afghanistan's educated workforce from productive activity, further crippling economic recovery.
Regionally, the Taliban's isolation works against them as well. Pakistan, which once supported the movement, has grown frustrated with the Taliban's inability to control Pakistani militant groups operating from Afghan territory. Iran has its own security concerns along the border. Central Asian nations worry about instability spilling across their frontiers. Russia and China, while not openly hostile, have made clear they expect the Taliban to maintain order—a standard the regime is increasingly struggling to meet.
What emerges from this picture is a government that has achieved control through force but has not achieved legitimacy through governance. The Taliban can still crush organized opposition through sheer military superiority. But they cannot solve the economic crisis, cannot satisfy the international community's demands for inclusive government, and cannot prevent smaller armed groups from exploiting the chaos and discontent that pervades the country. As the months ahead unfold, the question is not whether the Taliban will remain in power—they almost certainly will—but whether their grip will tighten further through escalating repression, or whether the mounting pressures will eventually force a reckoning with the limits of rule by force alone.
Notable Quotes
The Taliban have Afghanistan in a chokehold that spares no one. But threats are starting to crack their veneer of stability and control.— Editorial analysis
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