Talarico Wins Texas Democratic Senate Nomination; Cornyn and Paxton Head to GOP Runoff

In Austin on Tuesday night, State Rep. James Talarico told a roomful of supporters, before the race had even been called, that his campaign was trying "to fundamentally change our politics" and that it was working. He was right about the outcome. Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in an expensive, bitterly contested Texas Democratic Senate primary, giving a party that has not won a Senate seat in the state since 1988 another reason to hope for an upset in November.

His opponent in the fall is not yet known. Sen. John Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, and state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a favorite of the MAGA wing, will meet in a May 26 runoff. Wesley Hunt, a U.S. representative, finished a distant third and conceded, but his presence in the race made it harder for anyone to reach the 50% needed to win outright. All three candidates ran on their ties to President Donald Trump, who did not endorse. Cornyn and Paxton will now compete for his favor, and the runoff is expected to turn nasty. Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas opened the midterm season on Tuesday, with control of Congress at stake and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran as the backdrop.

Cornyn was in enough trouble that he skipped an election night party. He spoke to reporters in Austin instead, arguing that a Paxton victory would leave "a dead weight at the top of the ticket for Republicans," and calling Paxton "flawed, self-centered and shameless." He hopes to avoid becoming the first Republican senator in Texas history to seek reelection and fail to be renominated. His cool relationship with Trump is part of his vulnerability. He and allied groups have spent at least $64 million on television advertising alone since July.

Paxton, speaking to supporters in Dallas, said he felt as he had on a recent visit to Mar-a-Lago, and declared that "Texas is not for sale." He only began campaigning in earnest last month, and he has made national headlines by suing over Democratic initiatives. He remains popular despite a 2023 impeachment trial on corruption charges, which ended in acquittal, and accusations of marital infidelity by his wife. Senate Republican leaders, who back Cornyn, worry that Paxton would be harder to defend in the general election and would force spending that could go elsewhere.

The night was marred by trouble at the polls. Voting hours were extended in Dallas County and in Williamson County, outside Austin, after voters said they were turned away and sent to other precincts under new primary rules. Paxton's office challenged the extension, and the state Supreme Court ruled that ballots cast by people not in line by 7 p.m. must be kept separate. It was unclear how that would be carried out, or how many eligible ballots remained uncounted in Dallas County, Crockett's home base. In Harris County, which includes Houston, a spokesperson said voters were still waiting at 20 centers as of 10 p.m. Crockett's campaign said she planned to sue, and she spoke only briefly, warning that "people have been disenfranchised."

The Democratic race was a clash of styles. Talarico, a seminarian who often cites the Bible, held rallies across the state, including in heavily Republican areas. Crockett, known nationally for zinger attacks on Republicans, focused on turning out Black voters around Dallas and Houston. Talarico outspent her on television by more than four to one as of late February, and he gained attention and donations when CBS declined to air his interview with Stephen Colbert, who said the network feared angering Trump's FCC. Voter Tanu Sani of Dallas chose Talarico because he "really spoke to me in the way he tries to unify." Tomas Sanchez of Dallas County backed Crockett because "she cares about immigrants." Both candidates argued they were the stronger pick in a state Trump carried by almost 14 points in 2024, where no Democrat has won statewide in over 30 years.

Down the ballot, new congressional maps drawn by Republican lawmakers at Trump's urging reshaped several contests. Rep. Dan Crenshaw lost to state Rep. Steve Toth, who was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz. Rep. Tony Gonzales, whose troubles followed an alleged affair with a staffer who killed herself, goes to a runoff with gun maker and YouTube personality Brandon Herrera in a district that includes Uvalde. Eric Flores, backed by Trump, beat former Rep. Mayra Flores. Former baseball star Mark Teixeira won the GOP nomination to succeed Chip Roy, and Latin Grammy winner Bobby Pulido won the Democratic nod against Ada Cuellar. Gov. Greg Abbott won easily and will face state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while Roy and Mayes Middleton head to a runoff for attorney general.

What to watch now: whether Trump endorses before May 26, and whether Crockett's lawsuit and the ruling on late ballots change any counts in Dallas County.