Talarico Edges Crockett in Texas Senate Primary as Cornyn and Paxton Head to a Bruising Runoff

Texas voters opened the 2026 election season on March 3 with two Senate primaries that both ended in suspense, and in the early hours of the next morning, CNN, the Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ each called the Democratic side for state legislator James Talarico. His opponent was U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett of Dallas. The count dragged well into the night because tallies from Dallas and Houston came in slowly.

The Republican contest produced no winner at all. Senator John Cornyn, a four-term incumbent, and state attorney general Ken Paxton will meet in a runoff in late May. Congressman Wesley Hunt also ran, and he kept either of the two from reaching a majority. Republicans have not lost a statewide race in Texas since 1994, which is why the shape of this fight matters well beyond the primary.

Polls had split on the Democratic race, though there was general agreement on the broad outlines. Crockett was expected to do exceptionally well with Black voters, and Talarico was expected to do well enough with white voters, especially the white progressives of his hometown, Austin. The open question was the Hispanic vote, and Talarico won it handily. Crockett's strength ran through East Texas and the urban cores of Dallas and Houston, and her highly motivated base was not enough to offset that.

Two factors appear to have shaped the outcome. Crockett did not announce her candidacy until December, which seems to have left her without time to build a statewide get-out-the-vote operation. Talarico, meanwhile, gained a funding advantage and was able to match Crockett's social-media reach after a viral interview with Stephen Colbert that CBS clumsily tried to censor.

On the Republican side, about $70 million was spent on Cornyn's behalf, and he still ran essentially even with Paxton. The analysis from New York Magazine notes that this may actually have beaten expectations, since Paxton led most polls earlier in the cycle. It gives Cornyn a path to survival but leaves his national-party backers with two questions: how much more money they will spend on him, and how much damage they are willing to do to Paxton's viability in a general election. Cornyn's ads have called Paxton a home-wrecker and a font of corruption. Paxton, though, has a devoted MAGA base likely to turn out for a low-turnout runoff held right after the long Memorial Day weekend.

President Trump endorsed all three candidates before the primary, so both finalists will hope for a decisive endorsement and also fear what its absence or its direction could do. At the same time, Republicans are already trying to turn toward Talarico, previewing attacks on his liberal Christian views, which offend conservative Evangelicals.

The turnout numbers are what lift Democratic hopes. Democratic primary turnout on March 3 exceeded Republican turnout and nearly doubled what Democrats achieved in statewide primaries in both 2022 and 2024. The analysis also reads the results as a sign that Trump's 2024 gains among Hispanic voters in Texas are wearing thin. A significant national Democratic wave could, at least for now, make Texas a purple state, even as its Republican Party moves further right.

Democrats do have some repair work. Some Crockett supporters believed Talarico benefited from racist and sexist attitudes dressed up as arguments about electability. Crockett has pledged to campaign for the party ticket. If national conditions line up, the Texas race could be central to Democrats flipping the Senate. For now, the next marker is the late-May runoff, and whether Trump picks a side.