Talarico Defeats Crockett for Texas Senate Nomination; GOP Heads to May Runoff Between Cornyn and Paxton

Late on primary night in Austin, State Representative James Talarico told a room of supporters that something was happening in Texas. The results were still tentative, but the people of the state, he said, had given the country a little bit of hope, and a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing. Major news networks then called the race: Talarico had won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett.

His campaign followed with a short statement: "We're about to take back Texas." On Wednesday morning Crockett conceded in a social media statement. She said she had called Talarico to congratulate him and asked her supporters to get behind him. Texas, she said, is primed to turn blue, and Democrats must rally around their nominees and win. Her loss means she leaves the House at the end of her term.

The contest was the first big one of the 2026 midterm cycle, and Texans turned out in record numbers. It was also the most expensive primary in American history, with candidates spending a combined total of more than $120 million, and more is expected before November. Voting was not smooth. There was widespread confusion at polling places in the Dallas area, and at least one court battle over them.

Crockett entered the race in December, on the last day to file. The Dallas-area congresswoman is known for sparring with congressional Republicans, ranked among the House Democrats' top fundraisers, and had built a national profile as a public foil to President Trump. Republicans, in this telling, liked the idea of facing her and goaded her into running, hoping for a more favorable opponent. Her pitch was that Texas could be won by turning out the Democratic base already in the state, helped by national endorsements, including closing-week robocalls from former Vice President Kamala Harris, and a passionate, often combative social media following. It did not work.

Talarico is 36, a former school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian in his fourth term in the Texas House. He ran a campaign that grounded progressive values in religious doctrine and courted independents, moderates and disaffected Republicans. He framed his left-leaning politics as common sense for fighting wealth inequality and holding a disconnected Washington elite to account. Rolling Stone compares it to the kind of campaign that carried long shots like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani into office. Voters, choosing among different personalities and styles and the question of electability, gave Talarico the edge.

The stakes are large. Democrats have not won a national seat in Texas in more than 30 years, and many in the party consider the state unwinnable. But its population is growing fast and will likely earn it more House seats after the 2030 census, so the party can hardly abandon it. There are signs of hope: in February, Democrat Taylor Rehmet won an upset by 14 points in deep-red Tarrant County. Winning a Senate seat is a different matter.

On the Republican side, no one cleared the field. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton go to a runoff on May 26, and Wesley Hunt is out. Cornyn has won nearly all his elections by double digits and votes reliably with his party, yet much of Trump's base brands him a RINO. After Trump's failed attempt to overturn the 2020 election, Cornyn was mildly critical of the president and suggested he was washed ahead of 2024. Add some support for very modest gun control and a friendship with former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and his hold on the base weakened despite heavy spending to prove his MAGA credentials.

Paxton has been impeached by his own party, accused of professional misconduct and financial fraud, and the subject of whistleblower complaints alleging abuse of office. His wife, Angela Paxton, a former Texas Senate majority leader, divorced him publicly after accusations of infidelity. Those scandals seem to have barely dented him with Texas voters. Cornyn said he would not allow a "flawed, self centered and shameless" Paxton to risk what Republicans have built, and his campaign wrote that "Judgement Day is coming." Paxton accused Cornyn of trying to steal the election with another $100 million, and said that while the money may be on their side, the people are on his.

The primary came as the Trump administration tried to justify its war against Iran amid infighting among Republicans. Nearly three months of runoff campaigning lie ahead, and the outcome may turn on whether Trump endorses one of the two men.