In a Maine where a Bangor church hall fills with the small machinery of local campaigning, Senator Susan Collins is betting that years of quiet distance from Donald Trump will outweigh the anger his unpopularity has stirred. As Republican candidates across the country loosen their ties to a president whose standing is sinking, she leans on her record of crossing him, from his impeachment conviction vote to her objections on tariffs and budget cuts. Whether that record earns her another term, or whether voters judge her too slow to resist, will be settled in the quiet of a ballot box.
Susan Collins Built Her Re-Election on Breaking With Trump. Will Maine Voters Buy It?
She's like an arsonist who wants credit for bringing a cup of water
Mark
Why does one Maine race matter so much to Trump?
Mimi
Republicans see this seat as one they can't afford to lose, and Collins is the candidate whose strategy is built on differing with him. Control of the Senate may ride on that.
Mark
Other Republicans are doing the same thing, right?
Mimi
Yes. Rogers on the Canada trade war, Sununu on Iran, Husted on data centres. But Collins has a record going back years, including voting to convict Trump after January 6.
Luke
Though how much she really broke with him is contested. She voted against the Big Beautiful Bill, but critics like Mary Ann Larson call her mostly complicit.
Mark
And Jackson's arsonist line?
Mimi
It's his argument that her concessions are small. She counters with rural health funding and tariff relief on things like rock salt.
Luke
Worth noting the polls are described as hairbreadth tight, and we don't have the numbers here. The only figure is Civiqs showing disapproval of Trump about double approval.
Mark
Does her history of beating polls help her?
Mimi
She won by nine six years ago when polls said she'd lose. People like Lisa Thomas and Michael Capeci back her for personal contact and federal money.
Luke
But past outperformance doesn't guarantee a repeat. And the piece can't say whether the late tariff cut will move votes; that's still unknown.
O Pulso
- Trump's disapproval in Maine runs roughly double his approval, and local polls show Collins in a tight, nerve-wracking race.
- Longtime supporters like Lee Umphrey are walking away, citing Trump's executive power, the Iran war, and Medicaid cuts as reasons to break with her.
- Collins is pressing her independent record, touting her impeachment vote and her split with Trump on tariffs, while her opponent calls her efforts meagre and complicit.
- A last-minute White House agreement to cut tariffs on Canadian goods, including blueberries and apples, offers Collins a late lifeline.
- Rising diesel, food, and healthcare costs threaten to erode the goodwill she has built, and the outcome hangs on which pressure wins on election day.
In a Maine where a Bangor church hall fills with the small machinery of local campaigning, Senator Susan Collins is betting that years of quiet distance from Donald Trump will outweigh the anger his unpopularity has stirred. As Republican candidates across the country loosen their ties to a president whose standing is sinking, she leans on her record of crossing him, from his impeachment conviction vote to her objections on tariffs and budget cuts. Whether that record earns her another term, or whether voters judge her too slow to resist, will be settled in the quiet of a ballot box.
At a family day for conservatives in a Bangor church, 19-year-old volunteer Sofia Pride handed out Susan Collins lawn signs. Asked about Donald Trump, she passed. It isn't about him right now, she said. It's about Collins winning, and Trump has chosen to stay out of the race, which she thought said a lot.
That moment captures the bet Collins is making. As Trump's polling sinks, Republican Senate candidates across the country are putting distance between themselves and him. Collins has a longer record to point to: she voted to convict Trump after his impeachment over January 6, and she has openly admitted she is not his favourite senator. Her Maine seat is one Republicans cannot afford to lose, and local polls are tight.
For some longtime supporters, the distancing has not been enough. Lee Umphrey, who runs a community development corporation in Bangor, has voted for Collins consistently until this year. He credits her with real good, but says this election is a referendum on Trump's executive power and its abuses, from government cuts and Medicaid reductions to tariffs and the war in Iran.
Collins has split with Trump on many of these, to a degree, and she points to wins such as rural health funding and tariff relief on rock salt for Maine's icy roads. Her opponent, Troy Jackson, calls her effort meek and her concessions meagre. Protester Mary Ann Larson says Collins has mostly been complicit, and still resents her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.
Collins has outperformed polls before, winning by nine points six years ago. Her durability is also attributed to personal contact: Bangor residents recall her sharing recipes and quiet favours, and a three-time Trump voter still backs her for the federal money she has brought Maine.
In the final days, the administration handed her a boost, agreeing to a further cut in tariffs on Canadian products important to Maine's blueberry and apple growers. Umphrey believes rising costs will erode any goodwill she has built. Whether the tariff cut and her local record outweigh that anger is what Maine will decide on election day.
At a family day for conservatives in a Bangor church, co-sponsored by the Republican Party, 19-year-old volunteer Sofia Pride was handing out Susan Collins lawn signs. Asked about Donald Trump, she passed. It isn't about him right now, she said; it's about Collins winning, and Trump has chosen not to be involved in the race, which she thought said a lot.
That small moment captures the bet Collins is making. With the midterms close, Trump's polling keeps sinking, and Republican Senate candidates are putting distance between themselves and him. Michigan's Mike Rogers, an early tariffs supporter, now wants the Canada trade war ended. New Hampshire's John Sununu first praised Trump's decision to attack Iran and now calls the plan flawed. Ohio's Jon Husted, a longtime booster of data centres, says they should only go where locals want them.
Collins has a longer record to point to. She has been in the Senate since Bill Clinton was president, and she voted to convict Trump after he was impeached over the January 6 insurrection. In one recent debate she said she is not exactly his favourite senator; in another, that she votes very independently. Republicans see the Maine seat as one they cannot afford to lose. Local polls are hairbreadth tight, and Civiqs' tracker shows about twice as many Mainers disapprove of Trump's performance as approve.
For some longtime supporters, the distancing has not been enough. Lee Umphrey, who runs a community development corporation in Bangor, where Collins lives, voted for her consistently until this year. He says she has done a lot of good and been very reliable for groups like his, but that this election is a referendum on Trump's executive power and its abuses. He cited the Elon Musk-led cuts to government services, Medicaid cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill, tariffs on Canada and the war in Iran.
Collins did split with Trump on each of those, to a degree. She opposed some DOGE cuts, voted against the Big Beautiful Bill, criticised the Canada tariffs and backed Democrat-led resolutions to end the war. She also cites wins: more rural health funding in the bill, and tariff removal on some Canadian goods, including the rock salt used on Maine's icy winter roads. Her Democratic opponent, Troy Jackson, calls this meek effort for meagre concessions, describing her as an arsonist who helped set the fire and wants credit for bringing a cup of water. Mary Ann Larson, part of a group that protests weekly against Collins and Trump, says Collins has mostly been complicit since Trump arrived. Larson also hasn't forgotten Collins's critical vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh in 2018, and the Supreme Court that overturned abortion rights. So many women felt betrayed, she said.
Collins has outperformed polls before. Six years ago they predicted she would lose; she won by nine points. This year Democratic hopes rose with Graham Platner's grassroots surge, but he left the race in July after an accusation of sexual assault, which he denies. In September, ProPublica published an investigation into alleged bribery. Jackson called it corruption of the highest order; Collins denied wrongdoing, and the allegations do not appear to have significantly dented her campaign.
Part of her durability is attributed to low-key local work and personal contact. Bangor resident Lisa Thomas says that about four years ago, chatting at the shops, Collins gave her her mother's pot roast recipe, which she has used ever since. Michael Capeci, a three-time Trump voter, says Trump promised no new wars in 2024 and then went to war in Iran over nuclear weapons he doubts exist. He still strongly supports Collins for the federal money and business support she has brought to Maine.
In the last days of the race, the administration handed her a boost. Last week Collins announced the White House had agreed to a further cut in tariffs on Canadian products, including some seen as crucial to Maine's blueberry and apple industries. It may suggest Trump's team fears his unpopularity could end her luck. Umphrey thinks cost pressures, from diesel and gasoline to food and healthcare, will erode any goodwill she has built. Whether the tariff cut and her local record outweigh that anger is what Maine will settle on election day.
Citações Notáveis
I'm not exactly his favourite senator.— Susan Collins, during a recent debate
This is really a referendum on President Trump's executive power and the abuses connected to that.— Lee Umphrey, Bangor community development head and former Collins voter
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Leia o original em ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation ↗
Politics & Governance