Markets opened the last trading days of the year in a hesitant mood, with stock futures drifting between small gains and losses as the traditional year-end cheer seemed to waver. Beneath the numbers lies an older human tension: the wish for the economy to be steered by careful, insulated judgment, and the pull of political power toward the central bank that sets the price of money. When a sitting president threatens legal action against the Federal Reserve's chair, and the chair's term is already nearing its end, the question of who truly holds the reins of monetary life becomes unavoidably pu
Stock Futures Mixed as Santa Claus Rally Hits a Snag; Trump-Powell Feud Stirs Fed Independence Concerns
A hesitant start after Monday's declines
Mark
Futures are barely moving, so why is the Trump-Powell story in the headline?
Mimi
Because it touches the one thing markets prize in a central bank: independence. Trump threatened a lawsuit over alleged "gross incompetence," and Powell's term as chair ends in 2026.
Luke
Worth saying what we actually know: a threat was made. The source doesn't say a suit was filed, and it doesn't show markets reacting to it. Futures were flat.
Mark
And the rally itself? It's called a Santa Claus rally.
Mimi
It began Dec. 24, dipped Monday, and appeared to resume Tuesday. But futures were mixed, so "resumed" is a tentative word.
Luke
Right. The SPY and QQQ moves premarket were hundredths of a percent. That's noise, not a trend.
Mark
What do rate traders expect?
Mimi
CME's FedWatch showed an 83.9% chance the Fed holds in January, so a hold is the strong expectation.
Luke
That's a market-implied probability, not a decision. The 2 p.m. FOMC minutes could shift the picture.
Mark
Comerica sounds wary.
Mimi
Cautious optimism: recession risk under 30%, stretched valuations, and a call to look at small caps and financials.
Luke
That's one firm's outlook, a forecast rather than a fact.
Der Puls
- Stock futures flickered between gains and losses on Tuesday, unsettled after Monday's selloff dragged the Santa Claus rally backward.
- President Trump threatened to sue Fed Chair Jerome Powell for "gross incompetence," sending a fresh jolt through worries about central bank independence.
- Traders are bracing for the December FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m. ET, searching for clues in a light, holiday-shortened week with markets closed Thursday.
- Pricing points firmly toward stability, with an 83.9% chance the Fed holds rates steady in January, though the political storm over Powell's successor and his term's end in 2026 keeps uncertainty simmering.
Markets opened the last trading days of the year in a hesitant mood, with stock futures drifting between small gains and losses as the traditional year-end cheer seemed to waver. Beneath the numbers lies an older human tension: the wish for the economy to be steered by careful, insulated judgment, and the pull of political power toward the central bank that sets the price of money. When a sitting president threatens legal action against the Federal Reserve's chair, and the chair's term is already nearing its end, the question of who truly holds the reins of monetary life becomes unavoidably public. For now, investors are waiting for quiet signals, such as the minutes of the Fed's last meeting, to tell them where the story goes next.
U.S. stock futures spent Tuesday morning swinging between small gains and small losses, a hesitant start after Monday's declines. The so-called Santa Claus rally, which began on December 24, seemed to be trying to find its footing again after slipping on Monday, with consumer discretionary, materials and financials taking the heaviest hits.
The political backdrop was less settled. President Donald Trump escalated his long-running feud with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by threatening a lawsuit over what he called "gross incompetence." The move revived fears about central bank independence, arriving only months before Powell's term as chair ends in 2026.
The week is thin on economic data, and markets close Thursday for New Year's Day. Investors are watching for the minutes of the Fed's December meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET and the odds that rates stay put in January, currently 83.9%. Analysts at Comerica Wealth Management struck a "cautious optimism" tone for 2026, citing infrastructure spending, AI adoption and steady consumer demand, while warning that valuations look stretched after a long bull run.
U.S. stock futures spent Tuesday morning swinging between small gains and small losses, a hesitant start to the day after Monday's declines. Futures on the major benchmark indices were mixed. The so-called Santa Claus rally, which began on Dec. 24, appeared to be trying to pick itself back up after losing ground on Monday.
The political backdrop was less settled. On Monday, President Donald Trump sharpened his long-running conflict with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by threatening a lawsuit over what he called "gross incompetence." The threat revived worries about central bank independence, arriving only months before Powell's term as chair ends in 2026.
The week itself is light on economic data, and markets will close Thursday for New Year's Day. In bond markets, the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.12% and the two-year stood at 3.45%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool showed an 83.9% probability that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged in January.
Premarket, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, which tracks the S&P 500, was down 0.0073% at $687.80. The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, slipped 0.0081% to $620.82, according to Benzinga Pro data. On Monday, consumer discretionary, materials and financials took the heaviest losses, while energy and real estate closed higher.
Several individual stocks moved on company news. TEN Holdings (XHLD) jumped 16.31% after announcing a $2.25 million private placement of 991,000 shares at $2.27 each. Fonar (FONR) surged 24.49% after signing a definitive agreement for a take-private sale. Boeing (BA) rose 0.58% after the Pentagon awarded it an $8.6 billion contract for the F-15 Israel Program. Dermata Therapeutics (DRMA) gained 6.45% after closing a $12.4 million private placement priced at-the-market under Nasdaq rules. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) added 1.36% as copper prices climbed past a record $12,000 during the week.
Analysts offered a cautious read on the year ahead. Comerica Wealth Management described its 2026 outlook as "cautious optimism," pointing to infrastructure spending, AI adoption and resilient consumer demand as supports for the U.S. economy. It puts recession risk below 30% but expects inflation to remain sticky above the Fed's 2% target. The firm noted the market is entering a fourth straight year of a bull run with valuations that "appear stretched." Chief Investment Officer Eric Teal urged investors to resist following "the investing Toms and Daisys," a nod to the excess of the 1920s. Comerica recommends a defensive stance, with a look beyond big tech toward small and micro-cap companies as rates fall, and toward traditional value sectors such as financials that fit a steeper yield curve.
Tuesday's calendar includes the October S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index at 9:00 a.m., the December Chicago Business Barometer at 9:45 a.m., and minutes of the Fed's December FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Elsewhere, crude oil futures rose 0.50% to about $58.37 a barrel. Spot gold gained 0.88% to around $4,369.96 an ounce, below its record of $4,550.11. The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.07% to 97.9710, and Bitcoin fell 0.53% to $87,671.07. Most Asian markets closed lower, with China's CSI 300 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng the exceptions, while European markets opened higher. The Fed minutes this afternoon are the next piece of evidence on where rates may go.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Resist the temptation to follow the investing Toms and Daisys.— Eric Teal, Chief Investment Officer, Comerica Wealth Management
Trump threatened a lawsuit against Powell over alleged 'gross incompetence'.— Report on Trump's Monday statement
Möchten Sie die ganze Geschichte?
Das Original lesen bei Benzinga ↗
Economy & Finance