Spain Favored for 2026 World Cup as Messi and Ronaldo Chase Final Glory

The 2026 World Cup draw happens Friday in Washington D.C., and when it does, the shape of football's grandest tournament will finally come into focus. Forty-eight teams will compete across sixteen venues in the United States, Canada, and Mexico—the biggest edition ever, with 104 matches instead of the traditional 64. Six spots remain to be claimed through playoff rounds, but the favorites are already clear, and they tell a story about where the sport's power lies right now.

Spain enters as the tournament's early favorite, carrying a 17 percent probability of winning it all according to predictive modeling. The reigning European champions arrived at that status through relentless, almost boring excellence. They won six of seven matches at Euro 2024 inside ninety minutes, scored fifteen goals—four more than any other team—and have not lost a competitive game in thirty-one straight outings. That run surpasses even their famous thirty-match unbeaten streak under Vicente del Bosque between 2010 and 2013, the one that saw them win both the World Cup and the Euros in the same cycle. If their key players stay healthy—Rodri, the Manchester City midfielder recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament; Pedri and Gavi, both dealing with injury setbacks—Spain will enter the tournament supremely confident of repeating that double feat.

The narrative around Spain centers on Lamine Yamal, their teenage winger who became the youngest player ever to appear in a World Cup or Euros final when he played the day after his seventeenth birthday. He replaced Pelé's record from 1958. That combination of youth and proven excellence gives Spain a template for sustained dominance: old enough to win, young enough to keep winning.

France sits second at 14.1 percent, a team shaped by the imminent departure of Didier Deschamps after fourteen years and 175 games as head coach. He has one last chance to become only the second manager ever to win multiple World Cups, after Vittorio Pozzo. Kylian Mbappé takes over as captain for his first World Cup, and he is chasing Miroslav Klose's all-time tournament goal record of sixteen. Mbappé has twelve in just two editions. Lionel Messi, meanwhile, has thirteen—one ahead of Mbappé—and the prospect of these two icons dueling to end the tournament as the leading scorer is the kind of subplot that makes tournaments memorable.

England enters at 11.8 percent under Thomas Tuchel, who could become only the third manager to win both the Champions League and the World Cup. The Three Lions qualified perfectly, winning all eight of their UEFA qualifying matches with eight clean sheets—only Yugoslavia in 1954 has done that before. Tuchel's arrival promised a more fluid, entertaining style than Gareth Southgate's cautious approach, and a rampant 5-0 victory in Serbia in September suggested the potential is real. Harry Kane, Europe's most in-form striker with twenty-four goals in twenty matches for Bayern Munich, will lead the line, though Tuchel has suggested Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden cannot both start, creating a competitive race for attacking midfield positions.

Argentina, the defending champions, carry an 8.7 percent chance. Lionel Messi is attempting something even Diego Maradona never accomplished: winning a second World Cup. He produced one of the greatest individual World Cup campaigns in Qatar, scoring seven goals and assisting three, becoming the first player to net in every round from group stage through final. He led all players in shots, chances created, and fouls won. This year, playing for Inter Miami, he has contributed thirty-five goals and twenty-seven assists. He already holds the record for World Cup appearances and goal involvements. Argentina dominated CONMEBOL qualifying, finishing nine points clear of Ecuador, and retained the Copa America last year for the first time since 1993. Any team with Messi has a chance.

Cristiano Ronaldo, now forty years old, will appear at a record-breaking sixth World Cup with Portugal, which carries a 6.6 percent probability. He cannot stop making headlines—FIFA recently announced he would not serve a typical three-match ban following his red card against Ireland, freeing him for Portugal's opener. In Qatar, he was dropped for the last sixteen after ineffective displays; his replacement scored a hat-trick. At Euro 2024, he had a penalty saved and ended the tournament without a goal from twenty-three shots. Of his eight career World Cup goals, three came from penalties and none in knockout rounds. Yet he scored eighty-four goals in eighty-six Saudi Pro League games, and Portugal won the Nations League this year. Roberto Martínez, the coach, must find a way to balance Ronaldo's presence with a genuinely talented squad featuring Vitinha, João Neves, and Nuno Mendes from PSG, plus Manchester's Rúben Dias, Bernardo Silva, and Bruno Fernandes.

Germany, Brazil, and the Netherlands round out the teams assigned more than a five percent chance. Germany, at 7.1 percent, has not played a knockout match at a World Cup in twelve years—since beating Argentina in the 2014 final. Brazil, at 5.6 percent, finished fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying and have not won the World Cup in twenty-four years. The Netherlands, at 5.2 percent, have reached three World Cup finals without winning any of them. Norway, though not among the top favorites, stormed through qualifying with eight wins and thirty-seven goals—the most of any team—with Erling Haaland scoring sixteen of them, matching Robert Lewandowski's 2018 record for a single qualifying campaign. Colombia, fresh off a Copa America final run, also deserves consideration. The host nations—the United States at 0.9 percent, Mexico at 1.3 percent, and Canada at 0.4 percent—carry minimal chances, though Mexico will play in the tournament's opening match in Mexico City on June 11. Guillermo Ochoa, Mexico's forty-year-old goalkeeper, could become the third player alongside Messi and Ronaldo to appear at a sixth World Cup if selected.

When the draw concludes and the tournament begins next summer, the story will belong partly to Spain's pursuit of sustained excellence, partly to Messi and Mbappé's race for history, and partly to Ronaldo's final act. But it will also belong to the surprises—the dark horses, the upsets, the moments no model can predict. Six teams are still fighting for their spots. Italy, absent from the World Cup for twenty years, could end their exile. The tournament is bigger than ever. Anything is possible.