Smuggling, Power and Profit: How Eastern Libya's Migration Route to Crete Ties Militias to European Interests

On October 20, Greek authorities registered 710 people arriving on 14 boats. Hundreds more came ashore the next day. The arrivals were on Crete, and nearly all had set out from the coast of eastern Libya.

The numbers are large. Almost 20,000 people have tried to cross from Libya to the Greek island this year, according to the Greek daily Kathimerini, which describes the route as an increasingly significant corridor into Europe. Many boats leave from the area around Tobruk, a port city on Libya's eastern Mediterranean coast. Migrants pay as much as $4,000 (€3,600) for the passage, which takes about a day and a half.

The route is busy partly because other routes were squeezed. In 2023, eastern Libyan armed forces moved against smugglers sending people toward Italy. The networks adapted, switching to smaller boats and pointing them at Crete. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, a Swiss-based think tank, says other groups have since joined the trade, including some that had mostly moved goods, vehicles or drugs.

Researchers describe this as part of a "conflict economy," in which armed actors gain money and political influence by controlling informal markets and transport routes. Local power brokers can also use measures against smuggling to win financial or political backing. Chatham House researchers, after studying three transit hubs in Libya, wrote that instability created a fertile environment for smuggling and trafficking in persons, which in turn expanded the conflict economy. Hager Ali of the German Institute for Global and Area Studies told DW that a whole business has grown around smuggling routes, whether they carry weapons, goods, people or drugs. Where contacts, transport and security arrangements already exist, she said, they can be reused for trafficking.

Libya has been split since 2014. A UN-backed administration sits in Tripoli, while the second leadership, in the east, is backed by Khalifa Haftar, a former warlord turned politician. He has consolidated control over various armed militias, and his sons hold important positions. The reporting is explicit that there are no proven links between the Haftars' networks and the smugglers on that coast. Ali's point is that the appearance of control can be enough: the more apparent one's grip on the market, the greater one's influence. High-profile operations against smugglers can signal legitimacy, presenting someone as able to restore order and curb migration.

Geopolitics adds another layer. In late October, the Tobruk government signed a maritime agreement with Turkey, a deal Turkey had originally concluded with the Tripoli government. Turkey fought Haftar-sponsored militias in the Libyan civil war, so the agreement marks a rapprochement. Greece rejects it, arguing it infringes on Greek economic rights around islands such as Crete and Rhodes. A direct link between the deal and rising arrivals on Crete is not established, though Ali said it would not be inconceivable for migrants to be used as leverage in such disputes.

The European Union, meanwhile, has cooperated with Libyan actors to keep migrants from reaching Europe, despite their ties to armed groups and disputed legitimacy. Andreas Dittmann, a retired Giessen University professor of human geography, sees a plain contradiction: such cooperation may restrain migration but also strengthens local power. If eastern Libya's leaders can shape the scale and timing of departures, he told DW, they demonstrate their strategic importance to European governments.

For migrants, the position is precarious. An IOM report based on May and June data counted around 950,000 migrants and refugees registered in Libya. Many have limited access to healthcare and lack residence or work permits, which deepens their reliance on informal markets and their exposure to exploitation. What to watch next is whether the Turkey-Tobruk agreement and Europe's dealings with eastern Libya change either the flow of boats or the leverage of those who appear to control it.