Expectations remain below pre-crisis levels in February
Singapore's labour market enters 2026 with its eighteenth consecutive quarter of employment growth, yet the pace has visibly slowed — a reminder that even resilient economies breathe in rhythm with the world around them. The Ministry of Manpower recorded 5,000 new jobs in the first quarter, a figure shaped as much by seasonal patterns as by the gathering caution of employers watching geopolitical tensions reshape global trade. Beneath steady unemployment numbers, a sharper story is emerging: hiring and wage expectations have fallen with unusual speed, suggesting that businesses are quietly repositioning before any storm fully arrives.
- Employer confidence cracked in a single month — the share of businesses expecting to hire dropped from 54.6% in February to 44.6% in March, one of the sharpest single-month retreats in recent memory.
- Wage expectations fell even harder, sliding from 39.3% to 25.4%, signaling that companies are hedging their payroll commitments against an uncertain external environment.
- Headline numbers hold their composure: unemployment stayed at 2.9% for residents, retrenchments remained flat at 3,700, and the 18-quarter employment growth streak remains intact.
- MOM is threading a careful message — framing the slowdown as seasonal and manageable while simultaneously urging workers and employers to begin adapting before conditions force their hand.
- A safety net is being reinforced: displaced workers can access up to S$6,000 over six months through SkillsFuture Jobseeker Support, while reskilling pathways and graduate traineeships are being actively promoted as buffers against further softening.
Singapore added 5,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2026, a marked step down from the 17,700 hired in the final quarter of 2025, though still ahead of the 2,300 recorded in the same period a year prior. The Ministry of Manpower, releasing the figures on Thursday, attributed the deceleration to seasonal effects — the traditional slowdown around Chinese New Year and a natural correction from an unusually strong quarter — rather than any structural deterioration. Employment has now grown for 18 consecutive quarters, a streak MOM cited as evidence of the market's underlying durability.
Both resident and non-resident workers found employment, with residents gravitating toward transportation, storage, and administrative services, while non-residents continued entering construction at a more measured pace. Unemployment held steady at 2.9% for residents and edged up marginally to 3.1% for citizens. Retrenchments remained flat at 3,700, most tied to business reorganization rather than acute distress.
Yet the mood beneath these stable figures has shifted noticeably. Hiring expectations among businesses collapsed from 54.6% in February to 44.6% in March, while wage increase expectations fell from 39.3% to 25.4% over the same span. MOM noted early signs of stabilization in April but acknowledged that expectations remain well below pre-crisis levels, suggesting employers are hedging against further deterioration in external conditions — particularly the geopolitical tensions the Monetary Authority had flagged earlier in the month.
Looking to the second quarter, MOM expects the labour market to stay tight but anticipates more deliberate hiring. The ministry is actively steering both employers and workers toward adaptation: companies are being encouraged to invest in workforce transformation through career conversion and mid-career programmes, while workers are pointed toward SkillsFuture training and Workforce Singapore coaching. For those who lose jobs, temporary financial support of up to S$6,000 over six months is available. The labour market, MOM's message implies, is not in crisis — but it is in motion, and standing still is no longer a safe option.
Singapore's job market added 5,000 workers in the first quarter of 2026, a slowdown from the 17,700 hired in the final quarter of 2025, but still ahead of the 2,300 added in the same period a year earlier. The Ministry of Manpower released these figures on Thursday, framing the deceleration as a natural correction rather than a sign of deeper trouble. Employment has now grown for 18 consecutive quarters, a streak the ministry emphasized as evidence of underlying resilience.
The moderation, according to MOM, reflects two forces working in tandem: the seasonal dip that typically occurs around Chinese New Year, when construction activity slows, and the inevitable step-down from an unusually strong quarter. When adjusted for these seasonal patterns, employment growth still outpaced the year-ago figure, though it remained below the previous quarter's pace. Both resident and non-resident workers found jobs, with residents concentrated in transportation, storage, and administrative support services, while non-residents continued to flow primarily into construction—though at a more measured rate than before.
Unemployment held steady. The resident jobless rate remained at 2.9 percent in March, unchanged from December, while the citizen unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.1 percent from 3 percent. Retrenchments stayed flat at 3,700 workers, or 1.5 per thousand employees, comparable to the previous quarter. Most of these separations stemmed from business reorganization or restructuring rather than sudden distress.
But beneath these stable headline numbers lies a more cautious mood. The Monetary Authority of Singapore had warned earlier in April that the broader business outlook had softened, citing the Middle East conflict as a drag on growth expectations. That wariness is now visible in employer behavior. Hiring expectations among businesses collapsed to 44.6 percent in March from 54.6 percent just one month earlier. Wage increase expectations fell even more sharply, from 39.3 percent to 25.4 percent over the same span. These are not marginal shifts; they represent a significant retrenchment in employer confidence in a matter of weeks.
MOM offered a measured reading of these figures. While there are early signs of stabilization in April, the ministry noted, expectations remain well below the pre-crisis levels seen in February. This suggests companies are preparing for a slower hiring pace and are hedging their wage commitments against potential further deterioration in external conditions. The geopolitical tensions driving this caution show no immediate sign of resolution.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, MOM expects the labour market to remain tight and continue expanding, but with employers moving more deliberately. The ministry has begun signaling to both sides of the employment relationship that adaptation is necessary. Companies are being urged to use existing reskilling programs—career conversion initiatives, the Mid-Career Pathways Programme—to transform their workforces. Workers, in turn, are being encouraged to upgrade their skills through Career Health SG, SkillsFuture training, and coaching services provided by Workforce Singapore and NTUC's Employment and Employability Institute.
For fresh graduates struggling to break in, the Graduate Industry Traineeships scheme offers a pathway. Those who lose jobs involuntarily can access up to S$6,000 in temporary support over six months through the SkillsFuture Jobseeker Support scheme while searching for new work. The message is clear: the labour market is not broken, but it is shifting, and both employers and workers need to move with it.
Notable Quotes
The moderation this quarter reflects seasonal effects and a step-down from a high base, rather than a broad-based weakening in the labour market.— Ministry of Manpower
Although there are early signs of stabilisation in April, expectations remain below pre-crisis levels in February. This suggests a more measured pace of hiring, with potential softening if external conditions weaken.— Ministry of Manpower
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does the ministry keep emphasizing that this slowdown is seasonal and not structural? Isn't that a way of downplaying real weakness?
It's partly that, yes—but also partly true. Construction genuinely does slow around Chinese New Year. The question is whether the slowdown goes beyond that. When you adjust for seasonality, growth is still ahead of last year, which suggests the underlying trend hasn't reversed. That said, the hiring expectations data tells a different story. Employers are clearly spooked.
The hiring expectations fell from 54.6 to 44.6 percent in a single month. That's a 10-point drop. How do you square that with "resilient"?
You don't, really. The employment numbers are lagging indicators. They reflect what already happened. The expectations data is forward-looking—it's telling you what employers are thinking right now, which is "we're going to be more careful." Resilience doesn't mean nothing is changing. It means the system hasn't broken yet, but it's bracing for impact.
So what's the actual risk here? Is Singapore heading into a recession?
The ministry isn't saying that. It's saying the global environment has gotten murkier, and Singapore is exposed to that. The Middle East conflict is creating uncertainty that makes businesses hesitant. If that uncertainty clears, hiring could rebound. If it deepens, you'd expect to see retrenchments rise and unemployment climb. Right now, those haven't moved much.
The wage expectations fell even more sharply than hiring expectations. What does that tell you?
That employers are protecting margins. They're not just planning to hire fewer people; they're planning to pay them less, or at least not raise wages as aggressively. That's a sign of real caution—not panic, but a shift from growth mode to preservation mode.
And the government's response is to push reskilling programs. Does that actually help if the jobs aren't there?
It helps if the jobs are there but the workers don't have the right skills. It doesn't help if demand itself collapses. The ministry seems to be betting that this is a transition moment, not a contraction—that the economy will keep growing, but the composition of jobs will shift, and workers need to move with it. Whether that bet is right depends on whether external conditions stabilize.