Ships attacked in Hormuz as Trump weighs major Iran offensive

Two tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, their hulls breached by projectiles in waters that have become a flashpoint for a widening conflict. One vessel caught fire before the crew extinguished it; another was hit days earlier. The attacks came as President Trump told reporters he faces an imminent "big decision" on whether to launch a major military offensive aimed at what he called the "annihilation" of Iran's leadership. "It's a big decision," he said. "Anything could happen with me." He is scheduled to meet with Persian Gulf leaders next week at the United Nations General Assembly.

The immediate trigger for the escalating tensions is the seizure of strategic Red Sea ports by Yemen's Houthi militia, an Iranian-backed force that has upended global shipping and energy markets in a matter of days. Last week, Houthi fighters overran the coastal city of Mokha in a lightning offensive, taking control of territory that overlooks the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most critical shipping channels. The group now commands chokepoints on both sides of the Red Sea—the same waterway through which Saudi Arabia exports millions of barrels of oil daily. Life in Mokha has essentially stopped. Shops close by 8 p.m. when the city goes dark. A 34-year-old bus driver, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of Houthi reprisals, said he has not worked in a week. "People are afraid," he told reporters. "There is electricity, but at 8 p.m. the whole city is plunged into darkness."

The economic consequences are already severe and spreading. Saudi Arabia's state oil company, Aramco, has informed European customers they will receive no crude oil in October after a key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked by Houthi drones. The same pipeline, which allows Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, remains offline. Weekly traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has fallen to under one-third of normal levels. In the past seven days, only five laden vessels carrying Saudi products have exited the Red Sea through the strait—the lowest figure since late July. Overall traffic through the waterway has dropped from 35 to 40 vessels per day to between 26 and 35. International benchmark Brent crude oil is hovering near $104 a barrel, up from $88 three weeks ago. Prices soared roughly 20 percent in September alone. The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, imposed as part of the broader conflict with Iran, has redirected 105 commercial vessels and trapped over 30 million barrels of Iranian crude in the Persian Gulf. Another 60 million barrels valued at nearly $9 billion sit on sanctioned vessels outside the Gulf, being offloaded at a fraction of the normal pace.

The human toll is mounting rapidly. Nearly 3,000 people—more than half of them women and children—fled Yemen to Djibouti across the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in less than a week, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Thousands more are waiting to cross. "Mothers quickly gathered their children and whatever they could carry before heading to the coast and boarding small boats," the UNHCR said in a statement. Arrivals at reception centers in Djibouti describe fleeing "sudden bombardment, shelling and gunfire." Over 100,000 people have been internally displaced within Yemen, and the UNHCR is preparing for an additional 10,000 to attempt the crossing. The fighting restarted in recent weeks after a truce signed in April 2022. This time, the Houthis are explicitly targeting Saudi oil tankers in solidarity with Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has responded with sustained airstrikes. The Houthis reported that Saudi forces launched 26 strikes in a single 24-hour period on Friday, bringing the weekly total to 300. The kingdom has also mobilized regional allies. Pakistan's military spokesman declared Thursday that his country would go "to any extent" to defend Saudi Arabia, citing the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed just over a month ago by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. "We will go to any extent," Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry told Arab News. "We are there and we will continue to defend Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against any aggression."

Meanwhile, Iran is preparing its own population for potential escalation. On Friday, hundreds of thousands of Iranians rallied in a government-organized display of national unity, with state media reporting that more than 600,000 people have registered for limited military training to defend the country. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it expects over 1 million to eventually participate. Participants trampled American and Israeli flags and chanted slogans of defiance. The mobilization comes as Iran faces mounting economic pressure from the war, which has now lasted more than six months without clear resolution.

Global markets and governments are scrambling to manage the fallout. France announced it will convene an emergency G7 energy summit in the coming weeks to coordinate responses and consider releasing strategic oil reserves. Central banks across the world—the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England—have all recently raised interest rates in an effort to control inflation driven by energy prices. The U.S. State Department is offering up to $15 million for information on the financial networks of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including the elite Quds Force, as part of a broader campaign to isolate Tehran economically. At the same time, the Trump administration has approved visas for Iran's top officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, to attend next week's U.N. General Assembly—an unusual move given the active conflict and the absence of any sign that negotiations on reopening the Strait of Hormuz or reviving nuclear talks are imminent.