Two years into her historic presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum governs a Mexico where progress and deterioration coexist in uneasy tension — homicide rates falling even as the missing multiply, wages rising even as transparency erodes. She is the first woman to lead a nation whose deepest wounds predate her and may outlast her, navigating the impossible geometry of a country pressed from within by cartels and from without by Washington. Her record so far is less a verdict than a mirror: it reflects the limits of political will when the forces demanding change are structural, and the forces resistin
Sheinbaum's Mixed Record: Mexico's First Female President Shows Progress on Wages, Struggles With Violence
At least 1.6 million people displaced by violence between 2020-2025; 135,271 missing persons as of June 2026, up from 115,000 at Sheinbaum's October 2024 inauguration.
cooperation without subordination
Mark
The homicide rate dropped 51 percent—that's a significant number. Why is there debate about whether Sheinbaum deserves credit?
Mimi
Because a 51 percent decline is real, but attribution is harder. One think tank says there isn't enough statistical evidence to connect it directly to her policies. The cartels could be consolidating, the economy could be shifting, enforcement could be working—or it could be some combination. The headline number doesn't tell you the mechanism.
Luke
And meanwhile, disappearances jumped 127 percent over the decade. So we're seeing fewer bodies, but more people vanishing. That's not necessarily progress—it might just be a different kind of violence.
Mark
The article mentions 1.6 million people displaced by violence. That's an enormous number. How does that fit into the security picture?
Mimi
It's the human cost that the homicide statistic doesn't capture. Violence doesn't just kill people—it uproots entire households. Families leave their homes, their livelihoods, their communities. It's a form of control that doesn't show up in a murder count.
Luke
But we should note: that 1.6 million figure covers a five-year period from 2020 to 2025, so it's not all on Sheinbaum. She inherited a violence problem that was already severe.
Mark
What about the corruption crackdowns? Operation Enjambre arrested over 100 officials. That sounds like real action.
Mimi
It does, and it was. But the pattern matters. No governors from her own party have been prosecuted. So the question becomes: is this genuine anti-corruption work, or is it selective targeting of political opponents and lower-level officials?
Luke
The article says "critics have accused" her of selectivity, but it doesn't name those critics or quantify how many governors from other parties were prosecuted versus Morena. We know the absence—no Morena governors charged—but we don't know the full comparison.
Mark
She disbanded the transparency agency that had been independent for twenty years. Why would she do that if she's serious about accountability?
Mimi
The government said it was about efficiency, consolidating functions. But the result is fragmentation. Now you have to go directly to each agency instead of having one central place to request information. It's harder to see the whole picture.
Luke
And her daily press conferences—they're described as "effective political communication" but not providing accountability. That's a careful distinction. She's good at messaging, but that's different from being transparent about what the government is actually doing.
Mark
What's the Trump factor doing to all of this?
Mimi
It's become the dominant constraint. Migrant apprehensions dropped 84 percent at the border. Mexico is cooperating heavily on enforcement, but Sheinbaum keeps saying "cooperation without subordination." She's trying to show she's not just taking orders from Washington.
Luke
But the numbers suggest she is cooperating substantially. Whether that's subordination or pragmatism depends on your perspective. The article doesn't resolve that tension—it just names it.
Il Polso
- A 51% drop in homicides offers Sheinbaum a headline victory, but experts warn the numbers may reflect a shift in violence rather than its defeat — kidnappings and enforced disappearances have surged 127% over the past decade.
- The missing have grown by roughly 20,000 since her inauguration, now totaling 135,271 — a quiet catastrophe unfolding beneath the administration's preferred metrics.
- At least 1.6 million people were displaced by violence between 2020 and 2025, entire communities reorganized around fear while cartels remain largely beyond the government's reach.
- Sheinbaum's anti-corruption drive has netted over 100 officials, but no Morena governor has faced prosecution — critics see political calculation where reform was promised.
- The dismantling of Mexico's independent transparency agency has fragmented public accountability, even as daily presidential press conferences project an image of openness.
- Donald Trump's pressure on cartels, migration, and trade forces Sheinbaum into a narrowing corridor — she calls it 'cooperation without subordination,' but the terms are still being written.
Two years into her historic presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum governs a Mexico where progress and deterioration coexist in uneasy tension — homicide rates falling even as the missing multiply, wages rising even as transparency erodes. She is the first woman to lead a nation whose deepest wounds predate her and may outlast her, navigating the impossible geometry of a country pressed from within by cartels and from without by Washington. Her record so far is less a verdict than a mirror: it reflects the limits of political will when the forces demanding change are structural, and the forces resisting it are sovereign.
Two years after becoming Mexico's first female president, Claudia Sheinbaum can point to real but uneven gains. Homicide rates have fallen 51% since her October 2024 inauguration, minimum wages have risen, and social benefits for the elderly and disabled have expanded. Yet the number of missing persons has climbed from roughly 115,000 to 135,271 in the same period — a surge that reveals how selectively the administration's progress has landed. Violence in Mexico has not retreated so much as it has changed shape.
The homicide decline is contested. The Mexico Evalua think tank argues there is insufficient evidence to credit Sheinbaum's specific policies for the drop, while other indicators tell a grimmer story: crimes against life up 197%, femicides up 53%, and at least 1.6 million people displaced by violence between 2020 and 2025. Edgar Cortez of the Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy attributes the persistence of disappearances to fragmented coordination and a lack of political will — the government, he suggests, sees little electoral reward in pursuing cases that don't generate headlines.
On corruption, Sheinbaum's Operation Enjambre arrested more than 100 officials across party lines, but no sitting or former Morena governor has faced prosecution. Eduardo Bohorquez of Transparencia Mexicana acknowledges a shift in focus toward federal employees linked to organized crime, but reserves judgment on whether this is genuine reform or political recalibration. Sheinbaum has announced anti-corruption legislation; its implementation will be the test.
The Trump administration has become the defining external pressure of her presidency. Since January 2025, Washington has designated Mexican criminal organizations as terrorist groups and threatened unilateral military action. Sheinbaum has responded with what she calls 'cooperation without subordination' — and cooperation has been substantial, with border migrant contacts falling more than 84% in a single year. She is simultaneously negotiating USMCA terms and seeking tariff relief, all while trying to preserve Mexico's political independence from its most essential trading partner.
Her transparency record complicates the picture further. Sheinbaum disbanded the independent national transparency agency that had operated for two decades, distributing its functions across multiple state bodies. The result, critics say, is fragmentation — citizens must now navigate separately to Congress, the military, the judiciary, and local authorities for information that once flowed through a single institution. What emerges after two years is a presidency constrained by forces larger than any office: cartels that persist, a neighbor that presses, and a country still searching for a path that does not require choosing between security and sovereignty.
Two years into her presidency, Claudia Sheinbaum stands at an awkward crossroads. Mexico's first female leader can point to concrete gains—homicide rates have fallen 51% since she took office in October 2024—and she has expanded minimum wages and social benefits for the elderly and disabled. Yet the same period has seen the number of missing persons climb from roughly 115,000 to 135,271, a surge that underscores how selective her administration's progress has been. The violence that defines contemporary Mexico has not retreated so much as it has shifted shape, and Sheinbaum's record reflects the limits of what any single leader can accomplish against forces that run deeper than policy.
The homicide decline, while real, remains contested terrain. The Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy has acknowledged the downward trend, but the Mexico Evalua think tank argues there is insufficient statistical evidence to credit Sheinbaum's specific measures for the drop. Meanwhile, other metrics tell a grimmer story. Over the past decade, kidnappings and enforced disappearances have surged 127 percent. Crimes against life have climbed 197 percent. Femicides have risen 53 percent. These are not marginal shifts—they represent a fundamental deterioration in personal security across broad categories of harm. As of June 2026, the national registry documented 135,271 missing persons, a jump of roughly 20,000 since Sheinbaum took the oath. Edgar Cortez, a project coordinator at the Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy, attributes this persistence partly to a lack of political will and partly to fragmented coordination between state and federal authorities. The government, he suggests, sees little political payoff in pursuing disappearances with the same vigor it applies to headline-grabbing homicide counts.
The human displacement wrought by this violence has been staggering. Between October 2020 and October 2025, violence or crime forced at least one member of 510,000 households—approximately 1.6 million people—to abandon their homes and seek safety elsewhere. These are not statistics; they are families uprooted, communities hollowed out, lives reorganized around fear. The cartels that drive this displacement remain largely beyond the reach of Sheinbaum's administration, a reality that has forced her into an increasingly delicate dance with Washington.
On corruption, Sheinbaum has pursued what critics describe as a selective strategy. Operation Enjambre, a high-profile crackdown, resulted in the arrest of more than 100 public officials across various political affiliations—mayors, former mayors, police commanders. Yet no sitting or former governor from Sheinbaum's own Morena party has been prosecuted or detained for corruption or ties to organized crime. Eduardo Bohorquez, director of Transparencia Mexicana, a civil society watchdog, has noted a shift in the government's focus toward federal employees with links to organized crime, but he remains cautious about whether this represents genuine reform or merely a recalibration of political convenience. Sheinbaum has announced a package of anti-corruption reforms; Bohorquez said their implementation will reveal whether her administration intends to break with the patterns established by her predecessor and mentor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
The Trump factor has come to dominate both Sheinbaum's domestic and foreign policy calculus. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, his administration has intensified pressure on Mexico over drug cartels, migration, and trade. Washington has designated several Mexican criminal organizations as terrorist groups and has repeatedly threatened unilateral military action against them. Sheinbaum has resisted this pressure, insisting on what she calls "cooperation without subordination," a formulation that attempts to thread an impossibly narrow needle. Yet cooperation has been substantial. Between 2024 and 2025, migrant contacts registered by US authorities along the border plummeted more than 84 percent, from 1.5 million to around 238,000. Mexico is also negotiating with the Trump administration over the future of the USMCA trade agreement and seeking relief from tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. For Sheinbaum, the balancing act is existential: cultivate the closest possible economic relationship with Mexico's most vital trading partner while preserving the appearance—and substance—of political independence.
On transparency and accountability, Sheinbaum's record is decidedly mixed. She disbanded the National Institute for Transparency, Access to Information and Protection of Personal Data, an independent agency that had operated for two decades, and distributed its responsibilities among several state entities. The result, according to Bohorquez, is fragmentation rather than efficiency. Anyone seeking information from Congress, the judiciary, the military, or local authorities must now navigate directly to each source. Sheinbaum's daily press conferences, while effective as political communication, have not translated into meaningful accountability, Bohorquez said. For Cortez, this reflects a deeper priority: social programs deliver immediate political benefits, while advances in civil and political rights demand long-term investment with no immediate electoral payoff. A proposed nationwide law against femicide could represent progress, Cortez acknowledged, but only if the government can translate legislation into enforcement—a gap that has historically swallowed many Mexican reforms.
What emerges from Sheinbaum's first two years is a portrait of a leader constrained by forces larger than her office. She has delivered on some promises—wages and benefits have risen, and homicides have declined. But disappearances have multiplied, corruption prosecutions remain selective, and the machinery of transparency has been dismantled in the name of efficiency. The cartels continue their work. Trump continues to press. And Mexico continues to search for a path that does not require choosing between security and sovereignty, between economic necessity and political independence. Sheinbaum's record suggests that path may not exist.
Citazioni salienti
There is a lack of political will to address the issue of disappearances; the government sees little political benefit, and lacks the technical expertise to coordinate measures across state and federal levels.— Edgar Cortez, Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy
New social programs bring instant political benefits, while advancing on civil and political rights requires long-term effort and doesn't allow the government to immediately capitalize on political gains.— Edgar Cortez, Mexican Institute of Human Rights and Democracy
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