Serbia's Student List Projected to Win Majority as Vučić Concedes Defeat in Landmark Election

By half past midnight in Belgrade, the numbers had settled. Ipsos/CeSID, updating its projection with partial results, gave the Student List 141 of the 250 seats in Serbia's new parliament, on 52.9% of the vote. A majority needs 126. Aleksandar Vučić's list was projected at 103 seats and 38.8%, and four minority parties would share the remaining six.

Vučić himself made it official earlier in the evening. "It is clear that we have lost these elections," he said, and crowds poured into the streets of Belgrade and other Serbian cities. The Student List is a leaderless movement that began less than a year ago as a protest against alleged widespread state corruption. It has now ended the rule of a man who emerged in the 1990s as a radical nationalist backing the expansionist policies of Slobodan Milošević, and who has been the country's leading government figure for more than a decade.

Turnout was a large part of the story. Ipsos/CeSID put it at 60.8% by 5pm local time, with three hours of voting still ahead, more than 13 points above 2023. The final figure was projected at just under 70%, the highest since the first election in 1990. Diaspora voters joined the surge, queuing around the world, with waits of up to three hours in London.

On the streets of Belgrade, voters described what it meant. Sara, 24, said the crowd was standing on the very streets where police had beaten students and where they had retreated again and again before the gendarmerie. "Serbia only wins when the students win," she said. Nemanja, 29, said that after 14 years people finally felt freedom again. Student List candidate Radomir Saičić called the result "a victory of courage over fear, of hope over indifference," and stressed the movement's "great responsibility." "Tonight, we celebrate... Tomorrow, the work begins," he said.

Foreign reaction came quickly. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and European Council president António Costa congratulated the Student List and said they were ready to support reforms on rule of law, media freedom and anti-corruption, and to advance Serbia's future in the EU. Enlargement commissioner Marta Kos wrote that the door to the EU is open. Council of Europe secretary general Alain Berset welcomed Vučić's acceptance of the result and his commitment to a peaceful transition. Montenegro's president Jakov Milatovic spoke of a new chapter in relations between the two countries. The Guardian's reporting notes the movement's positioning on the EU is ambiguous, so the path may not be straightforward.

Hungary's prime minister Péter Magyar was the first national EU leader to call. He spoke by phone with the Student List's leaders, pledged Hungary's support, and said he was delighted to hear how much strength his April victory over Viktor Orbán had given them. Analysts at the Guardian see real similarities: both movements are broad in their appeal, focused on corruption, and campaigned door to door. They also see differences. The Student List has no single leader, and it is not yet known who its prime minister might be. Serbia's electoral system gives no outsized winner's bonus, so a larger win was needed. And Tisza is far more openly pro-European.

Vučić's own position is awkward. He resigned the presidency to contest this election, and his close ally Ana Brnabić, the outgoing speaker and former prime minister, is acting president. Once the new parliament forms, its speaker must set the process in motion, and a presidential vote has to take place before the end of the year. Given tonight's results, Vučić may not like that outcome either.