Serbia Wakes to a New Reality as Student Movement Ousts Vučić at the Ballot Box

Serbia woke on Monday, 26 October 2026, to a parliament-to-be that almost no one had expected a day earlier. A grassroots opposition movement led by students had beaten the bloc of Aleksandar Vučić, the authoritarian leader who had dominated the country, in the early parliamentary election held on Sunday. The Guardian's Jakub Krupa described the result as raising hopes for a reset in relations with the EU and other partners.

The latest projection from the polling group CeSID gave the Student List 140 seats, comfortably above the 126 needed for a majority. Vučić's bloc was projected at 103. No other party cleared the 3% threshold, and national minority parties took the remaining seven seats. More than 97% of polling stations had been counted, but some localised problems could, in extreme cases, force a revote at individual stations. None of that would change the overall outcome, though it could delay official results by a week or two.

International observers, including the OSCE's ODIHR and the European Parliament, called the election broadly positive on the day itself, but their preliminary statement was blunt about the conditions around it. It described high turnout and vigorous competition between two main contenders, yet an atmosphere of profound polarisation and seriously compromised equality of campaign opportunity. They cited entrenched advantages for the ruling party, grave misuse of public resources, and intimidation and pressure on voters, candidates and civil society. Special coordinator Gilles Baum, a Luxembourgish MP, said widespread distrust in voter registration persisted despite earlier recommendations. He also said reported incidents of physical violence raised serious concerns, and that some procedural shortcomings were noted. Polling-day procedures were assessed positively in the vast majority of stations observed; Italian MP Pierro Fassino said the process passed muster in 96% of those visited.

Eoghan Murphy, who heads the ODIHR mission, went further on media. State media showed pronounced imbalances in exposure and treatment of contestants, he said, contrary to legal obligations and its public service mandate, and most monitored broadcasters failed to give voters impartial information. Online campaigning, he said, remains largely unregulated, with no dedicated oversight mechanism. Arrangements for voting abroad also drew criticism for lacking clear criteria on polling stations, locations and hours; Austrian MEP Andreas Schieder said this needs to change. Serbia's largest domestic observer group, CRTA, urged the incoming government to make re-establishing the integrity of elections a top priority.

Reactions arrived quickly. Several EU leaders congratulated the student movement and voiced hope for renewed engagement with Serbia. Russia, whose preferred candidate was Vučić, said it hoped for cooperation with the new authorities.

The next question is who will lead. The Student List has no single leader, and most of its 250 candidates were experts from academia and the arts with little political experience. Every candidate was vetted through extensive consultations with student plenums across the country, a process that finished literally one day before the list was submitted, according to Nikola Burazer of the Centre for Contemporary Politics. He said it will not be decided by a small group in a room, but will have to be faster. Colleague Aleksandar Ivković said constitutional deadlines will force quicker choices. Former central bank governor Dejan Šoškić, who resigned in 2012 two years into the job in protest at alleged interference with his independence, is widely seen as the frontrunner for prime minister.

The timeline is fixed. Once final results are published, the National Assembly must meet within 30 days, by early to mid-December at the latest, starting a 90-day clock to form a government. Because the students hold a majority, many experts expect a government by December. A presidential election is also required by 27 December, after Vučić resigned the presidency to run for parliament. Until then Ana Brnabić, a close Vučić ally, serves as acting president as the last parliamentary speaker, and a new speaker, presumably from the Student List, would take over that role.