For eight unbroken weeks the Indian equity market has bled, and in doing so it has written the longest such run in a quarter century into its own ledger. Foreign investors pulling money out, crude oil that stays expensive, a rupee losing ground and rising global bond yields have all leaned on the same fragile structure at once. Traders now stand at a familiar crossroads, where a long-watched floor near 22,400 to 22,600 may either hold and seed a recovery or give way and open a deeper descent.
Sensex and Nifty Eye Rebound After Eighth Straight Weekly Loss, But Analysts Urge Caution
The longest weekly losing streak in 25 years
Mark
Eight weeks down in a row. Why does that number matter so much?
Mimi
Because it's the longest weekly losing streak in 25 years for both the Sensex and the Nifty. It's not just a bad week; it's a pattern that has gone on for two months.
Mark
What's driving it?
Mimi
Persistent foreign institutional selling, high crude prices, a weaker rupee and higher global bond yields. Ponmudi R of Enrich Money also said the selling has spread across several sectors.
Luke
Worth noting that's one analyst's reading of the causes. The reporting doesn't give figures for how much foreign money has left, so the weight of each factor isn't established.
Mark
And the technical levels? They seem to carry a lot of the story.
Mimi
The Nifty revisited its 200-week moving-average zone, around 22,400 to 22,600, for the first time in nearly six years. The Sensex dipped below 71,425.01 intraday but closed above it.
Luke
Those are chart readings, though, not facts about the economy. Mishra himself says the broader trend is still bearish and that a rebound is only a possibility.
Mark
So does the higher Gift Nifty reading mean a rally?
Mimi
It points to a positive open, nothing more. It's up nearly 50 points from the previous close of the Nifty futures.
Luke
Right, and we don't know how the session will unfold. A break below the April low would, by Mishra's account, push the Nifty toward 21,700 to 22,000.
Mimi
Which is why he urges hedging and strict stop-losses.
Der Puls
- The Sensex shed 1,670.84 points to close at 71,909.70 and the Nifty fell more than 3%, marking an eighth consecutive weekly loss.
- Foreign institutions keep selling, spreading the pressure across several sectors while investors hold back in the face of global uncertainty.
- Crude prices, a weakening rupee and climbing global bond yields add fuel, and the Sensex briefly broke its April 2025 low before recovering.
- Analysts are steering toward a hedged, stop-loss-disciplined rebound play, with 22,800 as the first target and a break below the April low as the warning sign.
- Gift Nifty points to a firmer Monday open, but everything now hinges on whether the 22,400 to 22,600 band holds.
For eight unbroken weeks the Indian equity market has bled, and in doing so it has written the longest such run in a quarter century into its own ledger. Foreign investors pulling money out, crude oil that stays expensive, a rupee losing ground and rising global bond yields have all leaned on the same fragile structure at once. Traders now stand at a familiar crossroads, where a long-watched floor near 22,400 to 22,600 may either hold and seed a recovery or give way and open a deeper descent.
The Indian stock market closed a week that stretched its losing streak to eight straight weeks, the longest run in 25 years. The Sensex lost 1,670.84 points to finish at 71,909.70, and the Nifty dropped more than 3% to settle near 22,422. Each session carried its own weight, starting with a sharp fall on Monday and easing somewhat before another decline on Thursday.
Analysts pointed to a familiar set of pressures. Foreign institutions kept selling, crude oil stayed expensive, the rupee weakened and global bond yields rose. Investors grew cautious as uncertainty spread across sectors. The Sensex dipped below its April 2025 low during the week before recovering, and its relative strength index fell to levels that signal deeply oversold conditions.
All eyes are now on the Nifty's support zone between 22,400 and 22,600, where long-term moving averages sit. Some analysts see that area as a base for a short-term rebound, with 22,800 as the first target, while warning that a decisive break below the April low could push the index toward 21,700 to 22,000. Gift Nifty suggested a firmer start on Monday, though the path ahead remains uncertain.
Gift Nifty was trading around 22,580 early on Monday, 5 October 2026, nearly 50 points above the previous close of the Nifty futures. That points to a firmer start for Indian equities after a week that closed out the longest weekly losing run the market has seen in 25 years.
The Sensex and Nifty 50 have now fallen for eight consecutive weeks. Last week's damage began on Monday, when the Sensex dropped 1.52%. The next two sessions brought milder declines, and on Thursday the index slipped another 0.79%. For the week, the Sensex lost 1,670.84 points to finish at 71,909.70. The Nifty shed more than 3% and settled at 22,421.95.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, named the forces behind the slide: persistent selling by foreign institutions, elevated crude oil prices, a weaker rupee and higher global bond yields. He said selling had spread across several sectors, with investors staying cautious amid geopolitical and global macroeconomic uncertainty.
The technical picture is where the story gets more delicate. The Sensex fell below its April 2025 swing low of 71,425.01 during the session, then recovered to close above it. Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking, noted that the index still trades below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, at 75,544.56 and 77,684.60. Its relative strength index has dropped to 24.55, a reading that signals deeply oversold conditions. He marked 71,000 to 71,200 as a key support zone and 72,300 to 72,500 as resistance.
For the Nifty, Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, pointed to a zone where the 200-week simple and exponential moving averages sit, around 22,400 to 22,600. The index revisited that area for the first time in nearly six years. It also came close to its previous major swing low of 22,182.55 before closing at 22,421.95.
Mishra said the broader trend remains bearish. Still, he argued that strong technical support combined with oversold conditions could produce a short-term recovery. He advised a hedged approach, with 22,800 as the first upside target and 23,100 to 23,200 after that. A decisive break below the April low, he cautioned, would invalidate the rebound case and could pull the Nifty toward 21,700 to 22,000. He stressed strict stop-losses and disciplined risk management.
Overseas, the mood was better. US stock futures were largely unchanged on Sunday evening, as investors worried about elevated Treasury yields and waited for minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting for hints on the next rate decision. On Friday the Dow rose 250 points, or 0.5%, to 51,176.46. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2% to 27,190.86 after touching a record high during the session.
In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose around 2%, led by technology stocks, and the broader Topix advanced 0.79%. Taiwan's TAIEX was up 2.29% in early trade. South Korean markets were shut for the National Foundation Day substitute holiday. The Kospi had ended the 28 September to 2 October week 77.18 points, or 1.1%, lower at 7,003.74, as semiconductor gains could not offset steep early-week losses.
What to watch now is whether the Nifty holds the 22,400 to 22,600 band and the April low, since analysts tie the rebound case to those levels. The views here belong to individual analysts and brokerages, not to Mint.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
A decisive break below the April low could invalidate the potential rebound and pull the Nifty toward 21,700–22,000.— Ajit Mishra, SVP–Research, Religare Broking (paraphrased)
Foreign institutional selling, elevated crude, a weaker rupee and higher global bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment.— Ponmudi R, CEO, Enrich Money (paraphrased)
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