Saxony-Anhalt's economy lags, but AfD's narrative oversimplifies complex reality

Saxony-Anhalt is about to hold a state election, and Germany is watching closely—not because of what the governing coalition might do next, but because of what the far-right Alternative for Germany party, the AfD, might win. Polls suggest the AfD could emerge as the clear victor in this eastern state, building on momentum from the 2021 election when it captured around 20 percent of the vote and became the largest opposition force. The state's domestic intelligence agency has classified the AfD's Saxony-Anhalt branch as "right-wing extremist."

The AfD's central campaign message is straightforward: Saxony-Anhalt has been abandoned. The state lags behind Germany as a whole on measures that matter to working people—unemployment runs higher here than the national average, and full-time workers earn less. With roughly 2.1 million residents, just under 800,000 hold jobs covered by social security contributions. The chemical industry, historically the backbone of the regional economy around the cities of Leuna, Merseburg, and Bitterfeld-Wolfen, remains significant but faces headwinds. Machinery and plant engineering firms, many supplying the automotive sector, also anchor the manufacturing base. Tourism and hospitality account for about one-fifth of employment, drawing visitors to the Harz Mountains, the Luther cities of Wittenberg and Eisleben, and the UNESCO-listed medieval town of Quedlinburg.

The numbers do support part of the AfD's narrative. Saxony-Anhalt's economic output per capita sits at roughly three-quarters of the national average—one of the lowest in Germany. The state's economy has grown more slowly than the country's overall economy in recent years. There is also a demographic reality worth noting: the state has a higher proportion of pensioners than the national average. Contrary to older claims, eastern and western German pensions have largely equalized, but many eastern retirees depend solely on their state pension, while western counterparts often receive supplementary company or private retirement income. This structural difference contributes to the state's lower per-capita output.

Yet the AfD's broader narrative—that Saxony-Anhalt has been left behind and abandoned—obscures as much as it reveals. The state's population has actually grown in recent years. Since 2016, more non-Germans have moved to Saxony-Anhalt than have left, and the net migration balance for German citizens has also been positive for the past six years. This is not the picture of a region hemorrhaging people.

The AfD has made immigration central to its campaign, warning of "too much immigration" and "foreign influence." The messaging appears to resonate, particularly among younger voters. But the demographic reality contradicts the alarm. At the end of 2025, foreign nationals made up around 9 percent of Saxony-Anhalt's population—roughly half the share in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany's most populous state. The claim that "foreigners are living off taxpayers" also does not hold up under scrutiny. Compared with other German states, Saxony-Anhalt has a relatively low proportion of foreign nationals among recipients of welfare benefits such as basic income support.

What is genuinely shifting is the political landscape. The two parties that have long dominated German politics—the center-right Christian Democrats and the center-left Social Democrats—are losing ground steadily. The CDU, which currently governs Saxony-Anhalt as part of a three-party coalition with the SPD and the Free Democrats, is struggling to maintain its status as a broad-based mainstream party. The SPD is approaching the 5 percent threshold in some regions, raising the prospect that it could eventually fail to win seats in state parliaments. Support for radical parties, by contrast, is becoming increasingly entrenched. The economic disparities are real enough, but the AfD's explanation for them—and its proposed solutions—rest on a selective reading of the data, one that attributes complex regional challenges to immigration and foreign influence rather than to structural economic shifts, demographic aging, and the uneven pace of post-reunification development.