In the small eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, a regional election has grown into something larger than its geography suggests — a referendum on whether the center can hold in a democracy under pressure from the far right. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who came to power promising to weaken the Alternative for Germany party through firm migration policy, now watches as that party threatens to claim an outright majority in a state wedged between the Elbe and the Harz. The vote will not merely determine who governs a region of 1.6 million; it will test whether a federal coalition built on compr