Saudi Arabia signs mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed Pakistan

On Wednesday, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a mutual defense agreement that treats an attack on one nation as an attack on both. The timing was unmistakable: the pact arrived in the immediate aftermath of Israel's strike on Qatar, and it appeared designed as a signal to Jerusalem about the shifting security architecture of the Gulf.

The agreement itself uses careful language. It states that "any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both" and commits the two nations to "develop aspects of defence co-operation" and "strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression." But what made the pact significant was what a senior Saudi official told the Financial Times: that Pakistan's nuclear protection was embedded in the deal, which would "utilise all defensive and military means deemed necessary depending on the specific threat." The language was diplomatic, but the implication was direct.

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have been bound by security ties for decades, rooted in Islamabad's historical role as protector of Islam's holiest sites in Mecca and Medina. Pakistani troops first deployed to the kingdom in the late 1960s during Egypt's war in Yemen. Those connections deepened after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, when Saudi Arabia grew anxious about confrontation with Tehran. But the relationship carried a second, less visible dimension: Saudi Arabia had long been a financial backer of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. Retired Pakistani Brigadier General Feroz Hassan Khan documented this in his book on the country's atomic arsenal, describing Saudi support as "generous financial." A 2007 US diplomatic cable, later published by WikiLeaks, showed that Pakistani officials had even floated the idea of Saudi Arabia developing its own weapons program alongside Islamabad.

For years, analysts and Pakistani diplomats had speculated that Saudi Arabia might operate under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella—a protective shield that would extend Islamabad's deterrent to the kingdom, particularly as tensions with Iran's atomic program mounted. This pact appeared to formalize that arrangement, at least in principle. Neither Israel nor the United States immediately acknowledged the agreement, though India's foreign ministry said on Thursday that it would "study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability."

The broader context made the timing consequential. Israel has conducted a sprawling military offensive since Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, stretching across Iran, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Qatar, Syria, and Yemen. The strike on Qatar last week had prompted international concern. This was the first firm defense decision any Gulf Arab state had made in response. Pakistan, for its part, possesses nuclear weapons and delivery systems capable of reaching targets across the Middle East, including Israel, and is developing systems with longer range still.

Zalmay Khalilzad, a former US diplomat with extensive experience in Afghanistan and Pakistan, flagged the agreement as a concerning development in "dangerous times." He noted on X that Pakistan's nuclear reach extended not only across the Middle East but potentially to the United States as well.

The nuclear dimension of the pact intersected with another Saudi initiative that had drawn scrutiny from non-proliferation experts. Saudi Arabia has been pursuing a civilian nuclear power program, in part as part of what had been a proposed normalization deal with Israel before the 2023 Hamas attack. The kingdom has sought US assistance to advance uranium enrichment on its own soil—a capability that experts worry could open a pathway to a weapons program. Pakistan has roughly 170 nuclear warheads, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, while India, its longtime adversary, is believed to possess around 172. The two countries have fought multiple wars and came close to open conflict again after an attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir in April. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, maintains close ties with India as well, adding another layer of complexity to the region's security calculations.