Saudi Arabia mobilizes 100,000 Yemeni troops for Houthi offensive at Bab el-Mandeb

Saudi Arabia is preparing to move against Houthi forces in Yemen with a military operation that could unfold within weeks. The plan centers on retaking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway at the southern mouth of the Red Sea that has become one of the world's most consequential shipping lanes. According to reporting from Reuters, which spoke to six people with knowledge of the preparations, more than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized for the campaign, supported by Saudi air strikes. The timing remains fluid—estimates range from as soon as a week to after the US midterm elections in early November—but the strategic urgency is clear. Last month, Houthi forces, backed by Iran, advanced rapidly down Yemen's Red Sea coast and seized control of the strait. That seizure matters far beyond Yemen's borders. The Bab el-Mandeb has become a critical alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by regional tensions. Shipping between the Mediterranean and Asia now depends on this narrow passage, making its control a question of global commerce and geopolitical leverage.

The immediate military objective is narrower than it might appear. Michael Ratney, who served as US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Reuters he expected a limited operation focused on coastal areas rather than a sweeping campaign to defeat the Houthis across Yemen. The goal, as Ratney framed it, would be to retake the Red Sea coast and restore normal maritime traffic. This suggests Saudi planners are thinking tactically about the strait itself, not strategically about remaking Yemen's political landscape. But even a limited operation faces a fundamental problem: the forces that would carry it out are not a unified military.

The anti-Houthi forces that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have armed and trained over years of conflict are a collection of factions with competing political and territorial interests. Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha told Reuters that many of these groups remain "not organised or prepared" for the sustained offensive required to push back Houthi pressure, which is being applied across multiple fronts. The fractures run deep. Last winter, UAE-backed southern fighters clashed with Saudi-backed forces in eastern Yemen as they competed for territory. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst with close ties to government thinking, acknowledged that the operation's success would depend entirely on how these local forces perform—whether they can transition from defending fixed positions to mounting an effective offensive.

Saudi Arabia's international allies are providing support, but mostly at arm's length. The United States, Riyadh's most powerful partner, is supplying military advisers and intelligence, including targeting data for Saudi air operations. But President Trump had previously rejected Saudi requests for direct US military involvement, including American air strikes. That leaves Saudi Arabia to conduct the air campaign itself. Pakistan, bound to Saudi Arabia through the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August alongside Turkey, has stopped short of committing combat forces to Yemen. Instead, Islamabad has sent air-defence systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone equipment. Some 30,000 to 40,000 Pakistani troops are deployed inside Saudi Arabia for border defence and missile interception. Turkey has supplied military equipment and drones for operations over Yemen. France has announced defensive systems and troops for protecting Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu.

The diplomatic machinery is moving. Military chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey met in Riyadh on September 25 to discuss the situation. Pakistan's foreign minister said on October 2 that the three countries would convene an emergency meeting in Riyadh the following week. These consultations suggest the operation is being treated as a matter of regional security, not merely a Saudi-Yemeni affair. Yet the core challenge remains unchanged: whether a collection of fractured, competing Yemeni forces—however well-armed and supported from the air—can execute a sustained offensive against an adversary that has demonstrated both tactical skill and staying power. The coming weeks will test whether Saudi Arabia's strategy of mobilizing local forces and providing air support can overcome the organizational weaknesses that have plagued anti-Houthi efforts throughout Yemen's conflict.