Satellite imagery confirms major Saudi oil pipeline damage, threatens global supplies

Satellite photographs taken this week reveal extensive damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, the country's critical alternative route for shipping crude oil to global markets. The strike occurred last week at a pumping station along the line, which the Saudi government has increasingly relied upon to bypass the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint where Iranian forces and their allies have repeatedly attacked commercial vessels over the past six months. Experts analyzing the imagery told BBC Verify that repairs could stretch four to six weeks, depending on spare-parts availability and the current state of supply chains. During that time, the pipeline's closure could eliminate as much as 3.6 million barrels per day from global supplies, representing roughly 3.6 percent of worldwide demand.

The economic consequences are already visible. Brent crude oil surged to $109.80 per barrel on Monday, settling slightly lower at $108 on Tuesday—a sharp climb that began when Saudi Arabia announced the pipeline's closure as a precaution on Friday. Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at the trade intelligence firm Kpler, emphasized that the repair timeline assumes access to necessary components and functioning supply chains, neither of which is guaranteed in the current environment. Anne-Sophie Corbeau, an energy analyst at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, framed the vulnerability more starkly: pipelines designed to circumvent traditional shipping lanes are "like sitting ducks," she said, and the recent strikes signal that alternative routes meant to avoid the Strait of Hormuz "may not be super useful because they can be destroyed."

The Saudi government has attributed the pipeline attack to Iranian-backed militias operating from Iraq, though the broader campaign of strikes on Saudi territory has been carried out by Yemen's Houthi movement, which is also backed by Iran. The Houthis have intensified their operations in recent weeks, launching repeated waves of missile and drone attacks on southwestern Saudi Arabia. Last week alone, they seized significant new territory along Yemen's southwestern coast, including areas that overlook the Bab al-Mandab waterway—a crucial maritime chokepoint. This territorial gain strengthens their ability to enforce a declared blockade on Saudi shipping, effectively extending their reach beyond conventional military strikes.

Satellite imagery also documents damage to King Khalid Air Base near Khamis Mushait, where the Houthis struck with ballistic missiles and drones last week in retaliation for Saudi air operations in Yemen. At least three aircraft hangars or shelters at the Royal Saudi Air Force facility appear to have sustained damage; the base houses U.S.-made F-15 fighter jets. The Saudi-led military coalition fighting the Houthis reported that 13 people were injured in the attacks on what the coalition characterized as civilian objects, though the Houthis disputed this characterization.

The cycle of escalation has accelerated. Saudi Arabia responded to the Houthi strikes with more than 50 air strikes on western Yemen within a 24-hour period, according to Houthi claims. The Saudi government announced on Tuesday that it would respond "firmly" to further Houthi attacks. Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll continues to mount: the UN Refugee Agency reports that more than 100,000 people have been internally displaced by the renewed conflict. The Houthis, for their part, have targeted other Saudi oil infrastructure with drones and missiles, forcing some operations to suspend work.

The damage to the East-West Pipeline exposes a fundamental vulnerability in Saudi Arabia's strategy to diversify its export routes. For years, the kingdom has sought to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran has demonstrated both the capability and willingness to disrupt shipping. The pipeline was meant to provide a safer alternative, routing crude through the Red Sea to ports on the western coast. Yet the recent strikes reveal that this workaround carries its own risks—and that the forces threatening the Strait of Hormuz have extended their reach to target the very infrastructure designed to bypass it. As repairs begin, global oil markets will remain sensitive to any further disruptions, and the question of how long alternative routes can withstand sustained attack will shape energy security calculations for months to come.