Sabalenka seeks rare US Open three-peat against rising Rybakina

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will meet Saturday afternoon at Arthur Ashe Stadium in what amounts to the year's defining rivalry match played out on tennis's biggest stages. The two top seeds clash in the US Open women's singles final at 4pm local time, a rematch that carries weight far beyond a single trophy. For Sabalenka, the 28-year-old Belarusian defending champion, victory would place her in rare historical company—only Chris Evert and Serena Williams have won three consecutive US Open titles. For Rybakina, the 27-year-old Kazakh rising toward the summit, the final itself is almost secondary to what has already been decided: she will become world No. 1 on Monday, regardless of the outcome.

They have already met twice this year in major finals, with Sabalenka claiming both. She defeated Rybakina at Indian Wells in March and again in Miami, victories that kept her atop the rankings through the spring and summer. But Rybakina struck back where it mattered most, winning the Australian Open in Melbourne earlier this year—a title that proved decisive in the mathematical race for the No. 1 ranking. Now they arrive at Flushing Meadows having faced each other 17 times in their careers, with Sabalenka holding a 10-7 edge in their head-to-head record. This will be their third Grand Slam final meeting.

Sabalenka's path to Saturday was methodical and commanding. She dismantled Jessica Pegula, the top-ranked American, 7-5, 6-2 in Thursday's first semifinal, displaying the relentless power off the ground that has defined her game. She spoke afterward with the hunger of someone who knows the window for this particular achievement is narrow. "I wanted it badly to go to the finals, and of course, I want to go all the way," she said. "The mentality was just I'm ready. I'm ready for whatever it's going to take to get the win." She acknowledged that Rybakina presents a formidable challenge—a big server whose baseline game has sharpened considerably over recent years, a player who will demand everything physically and mentally.

Rybakina's semifinal told a different story, one of resilience under pressure. Facing Coco Gauff, the 2023 champion, in front of a crowd heavily favoring the American, Rybakina fell a set down before rallying to win 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. The comeback silenced the partisan noise and announced her readiness for the final stage. When asked about the weight of what awaits, she deflected pressure with pragmatism. "It's an important match, and since it's a final, I feel like it doesn't matter who's on the other side," she said. "I don't want to put too much pressure on myself, because we're very close in the rankings. Even if something goes wrong in the final, I'll still have other opportunities and other tournaments until the end of the year." She framed the matchup as a test, a chance to measure herself against an opponent who pushes her to her limits.

Sabalenka arrives as the statistical favorite. She has not lost at the US Open since falling to Gauff in the 2023 final, a span that includes her back-to-back titles in 2024 and 2025. She has dropped only one set on her way to this year's final, suggesting she has found her peak form precisely when it matters most. Her four Grand Slam titles—two Australian Opens and two US Opens—give her the experience and the muscle memory of closing out major tournaments. Yet Rybakina's two major titles, including the 2022 Wimbledon crown and this year's Australian Open, demonstrate she belongs in this conversation. Her ability to stay composed under pressure, as she showed against Gauff, is precisely the quality that could trouble Sabalenka.

The prize money underscores the stakes: the winner takes home $5.5 million, while the runner-up receives $2.8 million. But for Sabalenka, the historical significance outweighs the financial reward. Joining Evert and Williams in the three-peat club would cement her place among the sport's all-time greats at the US Open. For Rybakina, the final itself is almost a bonus—she has already secured the No. 1 ranking that will be official when the updated standings are released Monday. What remains is whether she can claim the title that would make her ascent to the top complete.