I don't fear it too much any more. It's taken a long time to get comfortable.
Eight years after their first meeting at the 2018 US Open, Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka arrive at Wimbledon's fourth round as two players who once seemed destined for the same story but lived entirely different ones — one stepping away to tend to her mind and her family, the other quietly building toward a breakthrough that finally came. Their rivalry, renewed four times in three months this year, is less a simple contest of skill than a meditation on how careers bend under the weight of circumstance, and how two people can begin in the same place and arrive somewhere altogether different. On grass — a surface that has humbled them both despite 31 combined titles — neither holds the advantage of history, and that uncertainty is precisely what makes Sunday's match worth watching.
- Sabalenka has beaten Osaka three times already in 2026, sometimes with a clinical dominance that left little room for doubt — 80-minute dismantlings, 12 aces, broken serves — and the weight of that pattern presses on every point Osaka plays.
- Grass disrupts the script: neither player has ever won a title on the surface, and Wimbledon remains the one Grand Slam where Sabalenka has never reached a final, stripping away the comfort of precedent.
- Osaka has quietly rebuilt her relationship with the surface — her serve is faster, her fear of slipping has faded, and a first grass-court final at Bad Homburg signals that something real has shifted in her game and her confidence.
- Both players have spoken of each other with unusual warmth, framing their meetings as high-level battles rather than grudge matches, which lends the rivalry a rare quality — competitive without being corrosive.
- A quarter-final berth and, for both, the chance to finally claim grass as their own are on the line Sunday, making this not just a match but a potential turning point in two careers that have already turned so many times.
Eight years after their first meeting at the 2018 US Open — when both were 20, climbing fast, and full of promise — Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka meet again at Wimbledon's fourth round, this time for the fourth occasion in just three months. What makes the matchup compelling is not its frequency alone, but what it says about two careers that began on nearly identical trajectories before diverging in ways neither could have predicted.
Osaka won that first encounter in New York, then five days later defeated Serena Williams to become the first Japanese player to win a Grand Slam. Over the following 28 months she added three more majors. Sabalenka, meanwhile, claimed none — watching from outside the circle of champions while her rival accumulated titles. But careers are not linear. Osaka stepped away in 2021 to address her mental health, then took 15 months for maternity leave after the birth of her daughter Shai in 2023. In that same window, Sabalenka finally broke through, winning the Australian Open for her first Grand Slam. "She went through different things. I went through different things," Sabalenka said after her third-round win at Wimbledon. "I feel like we both were completely different players and people."
This year on hard courts and clay, Sabalenka has been dominant. She dispatched Osaka at Indian Wells in 80 minutes, fought back from a deficit in Madrid, and at the French Open outserved her comprehensively — 12 aces, 83 percent of first-serve points won, to Osaka's 53 percent first-serve rate. The 2026 head-to-head stands 3-0 in Sabalenka's favour.
But Wimbledon resets the terms. Neither player has won a grass-court title despite their combined 31 WTA victories. For Sabalenka, grass is the only Grand Slam surface where she has never reached a final. For Osaka, it was long a source of anxiety — a bad slip years ago left a fear she carried forward. Something has shifted this season, though. Her average first-serve speed has risen from 105 to 109 miles per hour, letting her take the ball earlier and dictate with her flat groundstrokes. She reached the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time in her career and made her first grass-court final at Bad Homburg last month. "I don't fear it too much any more," she said. "It's taken a long time to get comfortable but I would say I am at that point now."
Sabalenka, too, has looked composed — moving past two-time grass champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets with just six unforced errors. On Sunday, on a surface where neither has truly conquered and where the history between them is still being written, they meet again.
Eight years after their first meeting at the 2018 US Open, Aryna Sabalenka and Naomi Osaka are about to face each other for the fourth time in three months. This Sunday at Wimbledon, they will collide in the fourth round with a quarter-final berth on the line. What makes the matchup remarkable is not just its frequency, but what it reveals about two players who started their careers on nearly identical trajectories and have since diverged in ways both dramatic and instructive.
When they first met in New York in 2018, both were 20 years old and climbing the rankings with the kind of momentum that suggested they would define the next era of women's tennis. Osaka won that match 6-3 2-6 6-4, and five days later she proved Sabalenka's instinct correct by defeating Serena Williams to become the first Japanese player to win a Grand Slam. Over the next 28 months, Osaka added three more major titles. Sabalenka, meanwhile, claimed none. The Belarusian watched from outside the circle of champions while her rival accumulated hardware and accolades.
But tennis careers are not linear, and the paths that seemed so clear in 2018 became obscured by circumstance and choice. Osaka stepped away from the sport in 2021 to address her mental health, then took 15 months away for maternity leave after the birth of her daughter Shai in July 2023. During that absence, Sabalenka finally broke through, winning the 2023 Australian Open for her first Grand Slam title. The two players who had once seemed destined to trade majors had instead lived through completely different stories. "She went through different things. I went through different things," Sabalenka said after her third-round win here. "I feel like we both were completely different players and people."
Yet this year, on hard courts and clay, Sabalenka has dominated their renewed rivalry. At Indian Wells in March, she dispatched Osaka 6-2 6-4 in 80 minutes, hitting eight aces without a double fault and saving every break point she faced. In Madrid, Osaka threatened—she won the first-set tiebreak and broke serve in the second—but Sabalenka raised her level and fought back. At the French Open last month, the disparity was even more pronounced. Osaka managed only 53 percent of her first serves in play and was broken four times, while Sabalenka won 83 percent of points on her first serve, aided by 12 aces. Sabalenka now leads their 2026 head-to-head 3-0.
But Wimbledon is a different proposition entirely. Neither player has won a grass-court title despite their combined 31 WTA Tour victories. For Sabalenka, grass remains the only Grand Slam surface where she has not reached a final. For Osaka, the surface has long been a source of anxiety. She was spooked by a bad slip years ago and carried that fear forward, but something has shifted this season. Her average first-serve speed has climbed from 105 miles per hour last year to 109 this year, allowing her to take the ball earlier on the forehand and dictate points with her flat, powerful groundstrokes. She reached the fourth round at Wimbledon for the first time in her career after dismantling Daria Kasatkina, and she made her first grass-court final at Bad Homburg last month, though she was forced to retire injured in the second set.
"I don't fear it too much any more," Osaka said of grass. "It's taken a long time to get comfortable but I would say I am at that point now." Sabalenka, for her part, has looked composed on the surface this year. She moved past Jelena Ostapenko—a two-time grass-court champion—in straight sets with just six unforced errors. "The plan is to get better every day and do a little bit better than I usually do on this beautiful grass," she said. Both players have spoken warmly of their rivalry. Sabalenka called it "a battle" and "high-level matches." Osaka said that if she had to lose to someone, she would pick the world's number one player. On Sunday, they will meet again on a surface where neither has truly conquered, where the history between them is still being written, and where the outcome remains genuinely uncertain.
Notable Quotes
When she won that match, I had a feeling she is going to win a Slam.— Sabalenka, reflecting on their 2018 US Open meeting
It's been a great rivalry. Every time I'm enjoying playing her, it's a battle, it's high-level matches.— Sabalenka on their renewed rivalry
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
It's striking that they've played three times in three months. Does that kind of frequency change how you approach a rivalry?
It does. You start to see patterns in each other's game that don't reveal themselves in a single match. Sabalenka has figured out how to neutralize Osaka's power on hard courts and clay. But grass is different—it's faster, more chaotic. The patterns break down.
Osaka seems to have made a real shift in her confidence on grass. What changed?
She stopped being afraid. That's the simple version. The longer version is that she worked on her serve—nine miles per hour faster on average—and that gave her permission to be aggressive earlier in points. Fear and technique are connected.
They've both won four Grand Slams, but their timelines couldn't be more different. Does that matter when they play each other?
It matters in how they carry themselves. Osaka won hers early and then had to rebuild. Sabalenka had to wait, then had to prove she could do it again. They've earned their confidence in different ways. That shows up on court.
Neither has won a grass-court title. Is that a vulnerability they share?
It's more like an opportunity. For Sabalenka, Wimbledon is the last frontier—the only Slam where she hasn't reached a final. For Osaka, it's a chance to prove her grass-court renaissance is real. They're both hunting something.
What do you think happens Sunday?
Sabalenka is the favorite—she's number one and she's beaten Osaka three times this year. But Osaka has momentum on grass and nothing to lose. If Osaka's serve holds up and she can take the ball early, she has a chance. It's genuinely uncertain.