SA tariff probe finds 90% dumping margins on Mozambique cement imports

South Africa's trade regulator has opened a formal investigation into cement imports from Vietnam and Mozambique after finding strong evidence that the products are being sold at artificially depressed prices. The International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa, known as Itac, announced Friday that it had reviewed a complaint filed by Afrisam and Dangote Cement—the country's two largest domestic producers—and determined the case had sufficient merit to proceed.

The commission found dumping margins of 90 percent on Mozambican cement and 37 percent on Vietnamese cement. A dumping margin measures the gap between what a product costs in its home market and what it sells for when exported; these figures suggest the foreign producers are pricing their exports far below domestic levels, undercutting local competitors. Itac concluded that Afrisam and Sephaku Cement, which Dangote owns, had presented credible evidence linking their own deteriorating business conditions directly to these cheap imports. Both companies documented losses in market share, sales volume, profit, and employment.

The investigation arrives at a moment of significant change in the region's cement landscape. Mozambique is in the midst of a major production expansion, having secured $333 million in Chinese investment last year to build two new cement plants and related infrastructure. This capacity increase threatens to intensify the flow of low-priced cement into South Africa, a concern that animated the domestic producers' complaint. The timing also coincides with a pending ownership shift: Afrisam is being acquired by West China Cement in a deal already approved by South Africa's Competition Commission. PPC, the country's leading cement supplier, has warned publicly that this Chinese takeover could prompt Afrisam to abandon local manufacturing in favor of importing cheaper cement from Mozambique, where West China Cement already operates spare production capacity.

The cement industry has long sought government protection against what it characterizes as predatory pricing from foreign competitors. Companies have pointed to Pakistan as a historical source of dumped imports, and they have repeatedly asked regulators for tariff measures to level the playing field. South Africa's high energy costs make cement production domestically expensive, a structural disadvantage that tariffs could help offset. Yet some producers have continued to invest despite the pressure: PPC is constructing a new R3 billion cement plant in the Western Cape designed to produce 1.5 million tonnes annually as part of a broader turnaround strategy.

Beyond pricing, the industry has raised a second concern about quality. The National Regulator for Compulsory Specifications has identified cement products on hardware store shelves that fail to meet required strength standards, suggesting that some imported cement may not meet South African specifications. This compounds the competitive pressure on domestic producers, who must meet regulatory requirements while competing against cheaper, potentially substandard alternatives.

Itac's investigation will now examine whether the dumped imports pose a threat of future material injury, considering factors such as the exporters' available production capacity, the trajectory of import volumes, economic conditions in Vietnam and Mozambique, and the likely downward pressure on local prices. The commission's findings will determine what tariff levels, if any, will be imposed. The outcome will reshape cement trade across the region and signal whether South Africa's regulators view protecting domestic production as a priority even as the country's energy disadvantages persist.