Russia's 'Historic Return' to Africa: Trade Is Thin, Military Footprint Is Real, and Influence Is Concentrated

On October 28 and 29, Moscow hosts the third Russia-Africa summit, the latest in a series held at roughly three-year intervals since 2019. The program leans on economic cooperation, with politics, security, science and culture also on the agenda. The numbers behind it tell a more modest story than the billing. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova calls Russia's push a "historic return" and says nothing compares to what Moscow did for Africa in the 20th century.

The push follows Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the rift with the West that came with it. President Vladimir Putin has looked to other parts of the world for support, and Africa has become a focus, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visiting more often. But Ivan Klyszcz of the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn notes that Russia works actively with only a few African countries, mostly in the north. South Africa remains the continent's largest national economy, he says, yet its trade with Russia is far smaller than that of Egypt or Algeria. Efforts to deepen ties with Tanzania and Ethiopia have had no appreciable success so far.

Egypt is the anchor. It is Africa's second-largest economy, and its trade with Russia has more than doubled since 2021. Russia's Federal Customs Service puts the 2025 figure at $10.5 billion. Russian grain drives it, followed by metal products, while Egypt sells fruit and vegetables. Russia is also building a large nuclear power plant at El-Dabaa on the Mediterranean coast, financed by a $25 billion Russian loan covering about 85% of the cost. Analyst Nikita Smagin says Egypt could become Moscow's gateway to Africa and other markets, but cautions that Cairo pursues its own interests and that expecting pure political solidarity would be too optimistic.

Across the whole continent, the picture is thin. Russian customs data show about $27 billion in trade with all 54 African countries in 2025, roughly 39% of it with Egypt. That is 3.9% of Russia's foreign trade, which is out of proportion to the attention Moscow gives the relationship. Africa's side looks similar. The European Union is its main partner at around $385 billion in 2025, followed by China at more than $348 billion, the United States at almost $105 billion and India at $103 billion. Fidel Owusu of Geopolitical Intelligence Services says middle powers such as Turkey and the UAE are doing far better than Russia. Beverly Ochieng of Control Risks adds that Western countries still dominate raw materials, finance and energy, though she expects Russia to compete harder for critical minerals and energy projects, citing lithium in Mali and nuclear initiatives.

Russia's footprint is more visible in security. Wagner Group mercenaries began backing African governments, especially in the unstable Sahel, and their affiliated companies received access to raw materials in return. After the death of Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, most of these operations passed to the Africa Corps, a paramilitary force set up and controlled by Russia's defense ministry. The Congressional Research Service says the largest contingents, each several thousand strong, are in the Central African Republic, Mali and Libya. The Africa Corps wants to expand in Burkina Faso and Niger, and Russian fighters have also been spotted in Equatorial Guinea.

Irina Filatova of the University of Cape Town lists the reasons: gold and uranium deposits, leverage over Europe's southern borders on migration and security, and Libya's value as a logistics hub toward the Sahel and central Africa, including landlocked states. Arms sales matter too. SIPRI estimates Russia held 15% of Africa's arms market in 2021–2025, third behind the United States at 19% and China at 17%. In 2020–2024 it ranked first with 21%, ahead of China at 18% and the US at 16%.

Klyszcz argues that food and fertilizer supplies and military presence give Moscow more influence than trade figures suggest. Owusu points to diplomacy: Africa has the most countries of any continent, and Russia wants their votes in the UN General Assembly, where it has recently done better than before. Putin, speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, said Russia's aim is not to make money or take from Africa as colonial powers did, but to develop together. Filatova says that message lands unevenly. Elites and ordinary citizens often differ, South Africa receives the Russian narrative very positively, and anti-colonial sentiment elsewhere is not necessarily tied to Russia.

The Moscow summit will show whether the economic agenda can produce anything to match the rhetoric.