Pada pagi Jumaat di Kuala Lumpur, ringgit tergelincir sedikit terhadap dolar AS setelah data harga pengeluar Amerika melampaui jangkaan, menghidupkan semula spekulasi bahawa Rizab Persekutuan akan menaikkan kadar faedah minggu hadapan. Dalam arus pasaran mata wang global, berita dari seberang Pasifik sering menentukan nasib mata wang negara-negara membangun — namun ringgit bukan sekadar daun yang hanyut mengikut arus. Ia disokong oleh pendirian Bank Negara Malaysia yang lebih tegas dan ekonomi domestik yang kukuh, didorong oleh ledakan pelaburan dalam kecerdasan buatan yang memperkukuh keduduk
Ringgit weakens as stronger US inflation data boosts dollar
Businesses passing costs to consumers, keeping inflation elevated
Mark
So the ringgit weakened because US prices went up more than expected. Why does that matter to someone in Malaysia?
Mimi
Because when US inflation is higher, the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates. Higher US rates make dollar investments more attractive, so money flows toward dollars and away from other currencies—including the ringgit.
Luke
But the ringgit didn't actually fall that much. It went from 4.0630 to 4.0680. That's a fraction of a percent. And it gained against most other currencies. So is this really a story about weakness, or is it more about the dollar being strong?
Mimi
Fair point. The dollar was the story. The ringgit held up reasonably well, which is why the analysts weren't panicking.
Mark
What's keeping the ringgit from falling further?
Mimi
Bank Negara Malaysia is also signaling it might raise rates, so Malaysian assets stay competitive. And the economy is growing because of AI-related investment and exports. That gives the ringgit real support.
Luke
But we don't know yet what the consumer price index will show tonight. The PPI was hot, but CPI could surprise either way. And the Fed rate hike probability is 75 percent—not certain.
Mimi
True. The story is really about what *might* happen next, not what has happened yet.
Mark
So if the Fed does raise rates next week, what happens to the ringgit?
Mimi
It could weaken further, unless Bank Negara matches the move quickly. But the AI boom and export strength give it a cushion.
Luke
And if the Fed doesn't raise rates? If CPI comes in cooler than expected?
Mimi
Then the dollar loses momentum and the ringgit could recover some ground. But that's speculation at this point.
Der Puls
- Indeks harga pengeluar AS melonjak kepada 5.4 peratus setahun pada Ogos — melebihi ramalan dan mencetuskan kebimbangan bahawa inflasi Amerika belum reda.
- Kebarangkalian kenaikan kadar faedah Rizab Persekutuan minggu hadapan melonjak kepada 75 peratus, menjadikan aset berasaskan dolar lebih menarik dan menekan mata wang pasaran membangun.
- Ringgit melemah kepada 4.0680 terhadap dolar, namun secara serentak mengukuh terhadap yen, euro, pound sterling, dolar Singapura, dan baht Thailand — menunjukkan tekanan itu bersifat terpilih, bukan menyeluruh.
- Bank Negara Malaysia berdiri teguh dengan pendirian hawkish, sementara boom AI global terus memacu permintaan terhadap semikonduktor buatan Malaysia, memberikan ringgit asas yang lebih kukuh daripada yang kelihatan di permukaan.
Pada pagi Jumaat di Kuala Lumpur, ringgit tergelincir sedikit terhadap dolar AS setelah data harga pengeluar Amerika melampaui jangkaan, menghidupkan semula spekulasi bahawa Rizab Persekutuan akan menaikkan kadar faedah minggu hadapan. Dalam arus pasaran mata wang global, berita dari seberang Pasifik sering menentukan nasib mata wang negara-negara membangun — namun ringgit bukan sekadar daun yang hanyut mengikut arus. Ia disokong oleh pendirian Bank Negara Malaysia yang lebih tegas dan ekonomi domestik yang kukuh, didorong oleh ledakan pelaburan dalam kecerdasan buatan yang memperkukuh kedudukan Malaysia dalam rantaian bekalan semikonduktor dunia.
Pada Jumaat pagi, ringgit membuka perdagangan pada paras 4.0680 berbanding dolar AS, merosot daripada penutupan 4.0630 hari sebelumnya. Pencetusnya ialah data indeks harga pengeluar Amerika yang lebih tinggi daripada jangkaan — 5.4 peratus setahun pada Ogos berbanding ramalan 5.3 peratus, melompat jauh dari 4.8 peratus bulan sebelumnya. Harga teras turut meningkat kepada 4.6 peratus. Pakar ekonomi Bank Muamalat Malaysia, Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, menyatakan bahawa jika perniagaan Amerika sedang memindahkan kos kepada pengeluar, kemungkinan besar mereka akan berbuat demikian kepada pengguna — bermakna data inflasi pengguna yang dijadualkan malam itu berpotensi datang lebih panas.
Dolar AS bertindak balas serta-merta. Indeks Dolar AS naik 0.26 peratus kepada 99.077 mata, sementara ahli strategi global Quintex Intel, Stephen Innes, menganggarkan kebarangkalian kenaikan kadar faedah Fed minggu hadapan kini berada pada 75 peratus. Kadar faedah yang lebih tinggi menjadikan aset berasaskan dolar lebih menguntungkan, dan ringgit — seperti kebanyakan mata wang pasaran membangun — merasai tekanan itu.
Namun gambaran keseluruhannya lebih bernuansa. Ringgit sebenarnya mengukuh terhadap yen, euro, pound, dolar Singapura, dan baht Thailand. Hanya terhadap dolar AS ia tergelincir. Innes tidak menjangkakan pelemahan mendadak akan berlaku, kerana dua faktor menyokong ringgit dari dalam: pendirian Bank Negara Malaysia yang lebih hawkish, dan ekonomi domestik yang terus mendapat manfaat daripada ledakan AI global yang mendorong permintaan terhadap semikonduktor — bidang yang Malaysia mempunyai kelebihan daya saing yang nyata. Ringgit, dengan kata lain, bukan sekadar mangsa pasif data inflasi Amerika.
On Friday morning in Kuala Lumpur, the ringgit slipped against the US dollar as fresh economic data from across the Pacific shifted the calculus of global currency markets. By 8 a.m., the ringgit had weakened to 4.0680 against the greenback, down from the previous day's close of 4.0630. The trigger was straightforward: American businesses had raised their prices more aggressively than anyone expected.
The US producer price index—the measure of what manufacturers and wholesalers charge for goods before they reach consumers—jumped to 5.4 percent year-on-year in August. Economists had forecast 5.3 percent. The month before, it had been 4.8 percent. Core prices, stripping out volatile food and energy, climbed to 4.6 percent from 4.3 percent. These were not marginal misses. They suggested something real was happening in American supply chains and pricing power. Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia, noted the implication: if businesses were passing costs along to producers, they would likely do the same to consumers. That meant the consumer price index, due to be released that same evening, could come in hot. And a hotter inflation reading would strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.
The dollar responded immediately. The US Dollar Index, a broad measure of the greenback's strength against a basket of major currencies, climbed 0.26 percent to 99.077 points. Stephen Innes, global strategist at Quintex Intel, calculated that the stronger-than-expected PPI reading had pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike the following week to around 75 percent. Higher US interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors worldwide, which typically strengthens the currency. The ringgit, like most emerging-market currencies, felt the pressure.
Yet the weakness was not uniform across Malaysia's currency portfolio. Against the Japanese yen, the ringgit actually gained ground, moving to 2.6337 from 2.6431. It edged up against the euro to 4.7238 and rose against the British pound to 5.4967. Among regional peers, it strengthened against the Singapore dollar and the Thai baht, though it slipped slightly against the Philippine peso and held steady against the Indonesian rupiah. The pattern suggested that while the dollar was broadly ascendant, the ringgit was not in free fall—it was holding its own against most currencies except the one that mattered most in global markets.
Innes offered a measured view of what lay ahead. He did not expect the ringgit to weaken dramatically against the dollar, despite the near-term headwinds. Two factors were working in Malaysia's favor. First, Bank Negara Malaysia had taken a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, meaning it too was signaling readiness to raise rates if needed, which could support the ringgit by making Malaysian assets more attractive. Second, the domestic economy was showing resilience. Investment and export activity were being buoyed by the global artificial intelligence boom, which was driving demand for semiconductors and related goods—areas where Malaysia has real competitive advantage. The ringgit, in other words, was not just a passive victim of American inflation data. It was anchored by its own economic fundamentals.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
Businesses are inclined to pass on their rising costs to consumers, which means consumer price index could stay elevated— Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, Bank Muamalat Malaysia chief economist
The ringgit continues to draw support from a more hawkish Bank Negara Malaysia and resilient domestic economic indicators, benefiting from investment and export activity linked to the artificial intelligence boom— Stephen Innes, Quintex Intel global strategist
Möchten Sie die ganze Geschichte?
Das Original lesen bei Malay Mail ↗
Economy & Finance