On a Monday morning in Kuala Lumpur, the ringgit eased slightly stronger against the US dollar, a small movement that carries a larger story. Markets are holding their breath over West Asia peace talks whose signals remain contradictory, while oil, climbing above US$104 a barrel, quietly presses on the budgets of businesses and households far beyond the region. Traders are steadying themselves for Malaysia's first-quarter growth figures, which may offer a clearer reading of how the economy is weathering the shock.
Ringgit Opens Higher Against US Dollar as West Asia Peace Talks Keep Markets Guarded
Peace talks appeared elusive amid inconsistent reports on their progress.
Mark
The ringgit only moved a few hundredths against the dollar. Why is that worth reporting?
Mimi
Because of what's behind it. The analyst ties the market's mood to the war in Iran and the peace talks, and oil at nearly US$105 a barrel is how that mood reaches businesses and households.
Luke
Worth noting the move itself is tiny: 3.9170 against 3.9185. It's a modest opening, not a trend.
Mark
So what is the analyst actually predicting?
Mimi
A narrow trading range. Guarded risk appetite on one side, possible support from Malaysian growth on the other.
Luke
That's one economist's view, given to Bernama. It's a forecast, not a confirmed outcome.
Mark
What about the US jobs number?
Mimi
April payrolls were 115,000 against an expected 62,000. He reads that as the Fed not rushing to cut rates.
Luke
That's his interpretation. The figures are reported, but the Fed's next move isn't known.
Mark
And Friday's GDP?
Mimi
He expects healthy first-quarter growth, which could help the ringgit.
Luke
Expects, yes. The actual number isn't out, and the source doesn't say how the peace talks are really going, only that reports are inconsistent.
Le Pouls
- The ringgit opened at 3.9170 against the dollar, a modest gain that masks nervous trading across the currency board.
- Brent crude jumped 3.55 per cent to US$104.93 a barrel, squeezing margins and tightening household budgets.
- Peace talks over the Iran war are sending conflicting signals, leaving investors unsure whether relief is near or still distant.
- A strong US jobs report, with 115,000 payrolls against 62,000 expected, suggests the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high.
- All eyes now turn to Friday's Q1 GDP release, which could give the ringgit firmer footing if growth holds.
On a Monday morning in Kuala Lumpur, the ringgit eased slightly stronger against the US dollar, a small movement that carries a larger story. Markets are holding their breath over West Asia peace talks whose signals remain contradictory, while oil, climbing above US$104 a barrel, quietly presses on the budgets of businesses and households far beyond the region. Traders are steadying themselves for Malaysia's first-quarter growth figures, which may offer a clearer reading of how the economy is weathering the shock.
At 8 am on Monday in Kuala Lumpur, the ringgit stood at 3.9170/9230 against the US dollar, a shade stronger than Friday's close. The movement was small, and the analysts watching it were careful not to read too much into it. Traders are following peace negotiations over the West Asia crisis, and the reports coming out of them have been contradictory.
Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia, told Bernama that market sentiment still revolves around the war in Iran. In his view, the talks appear elusive, with conflicting accounts of how far they have progressed. Oil carries the conflict into everyday life: Brent crude had climbed to US$104.93 a barrel, and higher prices are eating into business margins and household budgets across the world, which could slow both investment and spending.
US data added to the caution. April's non-farm payrolls came in at 115,000, well above expectations, suggesting the American labour market is resilient and the Federal Reserve may not rush to cut rates. Mohd Afzanizam expects the ringgit to trade within a narrow range until Malaysia's first-quarter GDP figures arrive on Friday. If the economy shows healthy growth, as he believes it has, the currency may find some support.
At 8 am on Monday in Kuala Lumpur, the ringgit stood at 3.9170/9230 against the US dollar, a shade stronger than Friday's close of 3.9185/9230. The move was small, and the analyst quoted on it was careful to say why: traders are watching peace negotiations over the West Asia crisis, and the news coming out of them has not been consistent.
Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, chief economist at Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd, told Bernama that market sentiment continues to revolve around the war in Iran. In his reading, the peace talks appear elusive, with conflicting reports on how far they have actually progressed.
Oil is the channel through which the conflict reaches ordinary balance sheets. At the time of writing, Brent crude had climbed 3.55 per cent to US$104.93 a barrel. Mohd Afzanizam said higher oil prices are eating into business margins and consumer budgets around the world, which could slow both investment and consumption. For that reason, he said, risk appetite among traders is likely to stay guarded.
The US data added another layer. The American non-farm payrolls report for April came in at 115,000 jobs, well above the consensus estimate of 62,000. Mohd Afzanizam took that as a sign the US labour market remains resilient, and that the US Federal Reserve may not be in a hurry to cut interest rates.
Putting those pieces together, he expects the ringgit to trade in a narrow range. One local event could nudge it: Malaysia's gross domestic product figures for the first quarter of 2026, due this Friday. He said the economy appears to be holding a healthy growth path through the first three months of the year, and perhaps through the first half. That view, he said, could give the ringgit some support, since the government remains proactive in responding to the current shock.
The ringgit's opening gains reached beyond the dollar. Against the Japanese yen it rose to 2.4970/5010 from 2.5010/5040. Against the British pound it moved to 5.3248/3329 from 5.3354/3416, and against the euro to 4.6095/6166 from 4.6121/6174.
Among regional currencies, the picture was mostly positive but modest. The ringgit edged up against the Singapore dollar to 3.0886/0936 from 3.0910/0948, and strengthened against the Thai baht to 12.1322/1579 from 12.1640/1844. It inched up against the Indonesian rupiah, at 225.3/225.7 versus 225.4/225.7. The one exception was the Philippine peso, where the ringgit was unchanged at 6.46/6.47.
The next fixed marker is Friday's GDP release. Until then, the direction of the peace talks and the price of oil are likely to set the tone.
Citations marquantes
Higher oil prices are eating into businesses' margins and consumers' budgets across the globe, so risk appetite among traders is likely to remain guarded.— Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid, Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist
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Economy & Finance