Republican Setbacks Mount Across the South as Democrat Scott Colom Upsets Hyde-Smith in Mississippi

On Wednesday, Scott Colom became the first Democrat in 44 years to win a Senate race in Mississippi. He defeated Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, who had held the seat since 2018. His win capped a midterm season that has left Republicans across the South facing a region that is no longer a sure thing for them.

The losses piled up elsewhere. Republicans were routed in Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff, the Democratic incumbent, beat Representative Mike Collins by about 18 percentage points. Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, won the governor's race comfortably, becoming the first Black person elected governor of Georgia and the first Black woman elected governor anywhere in the country. In North Carolina, Republicans lost a Senate race by nearly 20 points. In Louisiana, the Republican Senate candidate won by less than two points against a little-known Democrat who ran just two TV commercials. South Carolina saw 10 state legislative seats flip to Democrats, and Republicans also gave up state house seats in Tennessee, Alabama and Arkansas.

Mississippi carried special weight because the state has long been seen as a base of loyal conservatives. Colom also became the state's first Black senator since the 1800s. Black voters make up about 40 percent of Mississippi's population, the largest share of any state, and they largely back Democrats, repeatedly electing Representative Bennie Thompson, the state's lone House Democrat. White voters have long backed Republicans in huge numbers. Colom was lifted by strength in the Memphis suburbs of the northwest. In DeSoto County, a majority-white area that Donald Trump won by 24 points in 2024, Colom beat Hyde-Smith by about eight.

Brian Robinson, a Republican strategist in Georgia, said the result suggests the racial polarization that has powered Southern Republicans for decades is weakening, and that white college graduates, once safely Republican, are moving toward Democrats. "That's changed forever," he said, adding that he expects North Carolina and Mississippi to stay competitive for a long time and hopes Georgia will too. Bill Armistead, a former chair of the Alabama Republican Party, said Republicans "fell asleep at the wheel" and could face more losses if they stay that way.

The backdrop is a party in flux, with Trump in the lame-duck stage of his second term, his coalition fracturing, and Republicans losing ground among Black voters. Many were angered by Republican efforts to redraw congressional districts in ways that diluted their influence. This year the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act of 1965, and the scramble that followed to undercut majority-Black districts across the South helped galvanize Black voters in Mississippi and turn out Democrats regionwide.

Some Mississippi Republicans downplayed the lasting significance. State Senator Scott DeLano noted that it was one statewide race and that all three of the state's Republican congressmen comfortably won re-election. He said voters were making a statement against the Iran war and high food and gas prices, and that Colom capitalized. State Senator Michael McLendon agreed that Hyde-Smith was "absolutely" outworked, called the result "a perfect storm," and warned, "You better not take any races for granted." Democrats, who still have brand and image problems, could struggle to hold these gains in friendlier climates for Republicans.

Mike Hurst, chairman of the Mississippi Republican Party, called Colom's victory an "incredible milestone" and said he hoped it was a wake-up call. He expects next year's governor's race, to replace the term-limited Tate Reeves, to be competitive. In his victory speech, Colom promised to "treat your future the way I want my future to be" and to keep working to improve every Mississippian's life.

Two questions hang over what comes next: whether the coalition of Black voters, white liberals and disaffected conservatives Colom assembled will hold together, and whether Mississippi Republicans will redraw district lines in the coming weeks. Lawmakers held public hearings before the election but have not said whether or how they will change the maps. Democrats, for their part, have signaled they will keep focusing on the South, with their 2028 presidential nominating process beginning in South Carolina.