Republican Approval of Trump's Government Management Slips, AP-NORC Poll Finds

Beverly Lucas, 78, a retired educator in Ormond Beach, Florida, and a Republican, says she is thoroughly disturbed by a government shutdown that has now run past forty days. She compares Trump's second term to having a petulant child in the White House with unmitigated power. Her frustration is part of a shift measured in a new AP-NORC poll.

The survey, conducted Nov. 6-10, finds that Americans are less likely to approve of how Trump is managing the federal government than they were in March. The decline is driven largely by Republicans and independents. Among Republicans, approval fell from 81% in March to 68%, so that only about two-thirds now approve. Among independents it dropped from 38% to 25%. Democrats were already overwhelmingly negative, and 95% now disapprove, up from 89%.

Republicans have generally stood firmly behind the president, which is what makes the slippage notable. The poll points to the risks of the shutdown, which Trump and his administration have tried to place squarely on Democrats. Adults have assigned blame to both parties as the funding lapse has snarled air traffic, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers without paychecks and compromised food aid for some of the most vulnerable Americans. The drop could also reflect wider discontent with other dramatic and polarizing changes Trump has made in recent months, including gutting agencies and directing waves of mass layoffs.

Lucas pointed to a Great Gatsby-themed Halloween party at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club. When people are hungry, she said, he had a party, and it struck her as callous. She also objected to the idea of letting civilians go unpaid over ideological disputes. Air traffic controllers, she asked, the people in whose hands lives rest every day? Conflicts, she said, should be handled like intelligent people, not thugs and bullies on a playground.

Yet the poll's broader numbers are steadier. Trump's overall approval stands at 36%, roughly in line with 37% in October's AP-NORC poll. His ratings on immigration and the economy have barely moved since last month, though both have eroded slightly since spring. On health care, which became central to the shutdown fight as Democrats demanded negotiations over tax credits that expire Jan. 1, approval was already low and sits at 34%, compared with 31% in October.

Many supporters remain firmly with him. Susan McDuffie, 74, a retired Republican in Carson City, Nevada, says she has great confidence in Trump and believes the country is on the right track. She blames Democrats for the shutdown and the suffering it has caused, scoffed at the idea that they are forcing a debate over soon-to-skyrocket health care costs, and said she has no patience for their lame excuses. In her view, people frightened about SNAP benefits expiring and struggling to feed their families are the more pressing matter.

Nora Bailey, 33, a moderate in the Batesville area of Arkansas who aligns with neither party, thinks everyone is being stubborn. After recently giving birth, she faced delays getting a breast pump through a government program for new mothers while her son was in intensive care, and she worries about her disabled parents, who rely on SNAP. She disapproves of Trump's management of the government, but for a different reason than Lucas: she doesn't see enough evidence that the federal government has been downsized rather than still carrying excess people.

The poll surveyed 1,143 adults from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Management approval may rebound if the government reopens, but the shutdown could leave a more lasting mark on how Trump is viewed.