As the rivalry between Washington and Beijing freezes global consensus on artificial intelligence, smaller coalitions of nations are discovering that shared geography and shared stakes can accomplish what universal agreement cannot. Regional bodies like ASEAN and the Pacific Islands Forum are converting local urgencies — deepfakes distorting elections, data flows crossing borders without rules — into binding treaty-level commitments, moving at the speed the technology demands. This is not a failure of global ambition so much as a recognition of an older truth: governance, like trust, tends to
Lowy Institute
· Sep 03, 2026
· governance
· 4 min de leitura
High
Apuração: Verificado
Regional AI blocs emerge as faster path than global consensus
Southeast Asian countries face electoral integrity crises from AI-driven deepfakes influencing elections.
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Technology
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Viés e Enquadramento
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Article presents regional AI governance coalitions as pragmatic alternative to stalled US-China global competition, with selective framing favoring multilateral regional approaches over bilateral superpower models.
Bias Direction
center-left
Confidence
MED
Problem-solution framing that positions US-China rivalry as obstacle, then elevates regional coalitions (ASEAN, Pacific Islands Forum) as superior 'realistic path,' while treating EU AI Act as success model without equivalent scrutiny.
wildly different speeds
stalls global AI rules
binary framing gets more complicated
rightly points to the gap
more realistic path
valuable but non-binding communiqués
US perspective on why security-focused 'trusted networks' approach may be necessary
China's rationale for state-directed multilateralism beyond characterization as competing camp
Concerns about regional fragmentation creating multiple incompatible standards rather than solving coordination problems
Developing nations' views on being excluded from democracy-aligned coalitions
Critiques of EU AI Act's regulatory burden or effectiveness
Perspectives from tech companies on compliance costs of regional vs. global approaches
Impacto Geopolítico
🌎
US-China AI governance rivalry stalls global consensus, prompting regional blocs like ASEAN to establish binding frameworks as a pragmatic alternative to competing superpower models.
Escalation Risk
moderate
Confidence
HIGH
United States
China
European Union
ASEAN
Pacific Islands
India
Turkey
Australia
Fragmentation of AI governance into competing spheres: US pursuing security-focused 'trusted networks' of allies; China promoting state-directed multilateralism. Regional coalitions (ASEAN, Pacific Forum) gaining autonomy by establishing independent frameworks, reducing reliance on superpower models and creating new centers of AI regulatory authority.
Similar to Cold War-era technology bifurcation and competing standards (COMECON vs. Western bloc), but with greater economic interdependence and faster technological change, reducing likelihood of complete separation while increasing friction points.
Lente Econômica
📈
Regional AI governance coalitions are emerging as a pragmatic alternative to stalled global consensus, with ASEAN and Pacific Forums establishing binding frameworks faster than US-China-led competing blocs.
Market Signal
mixed
Confidence
HIGH
Technology and Software
Artificial Intelligence
Telecommunications
Finance and Banking
Healthcare
Manufacturing
Digital Services
Consumers will face fragmented AI regulations across regions, potentially increasing costs for cross-border digital services and creating compliance complexity. Regional standards may improve data privacy protections in some areas while limiting AI innovation access in others. Prices for AI-enabled products may vary significantly by region due to different regulatory burdens.
Expect accelerated regional AI governance frameworks outside traditional multilateral structures. Governments will prioritize regional coalitions (ASEAN, EU, etc.) over global consensus. Supply chain controls and 'trusted networks' will reshape tech trade patterns. Regulatory divergence will increase compliance costs for multinational tech firms. Potential fragmentation of global AI development into competing regional ecosystems with different standards and values.