Petro's tax reform could raise Colombian airfares, hitting lower-income travelers hardest

Lower-income Colombians (75% of airline users from strata 2-3) would face reduced air travel accessibility due to ticket price increases.
Airlines cannot simply switch to greener fuel because it does not exist here
The carbon tax aims to encourage sustainable aviation fuel, but Colombia has no supply and no legal framework to support it.

En Colombia, una reforma tributaria impulsada por el presidente Gustavo Petro propone casi duplicar el impuesto al carbono sobre el combustible de aviación, una medida que, en lugar de incentivar alternativas más limpias, amenaza con encarecer los tiquetes aéreos para quienes menos pueden permitírselo. La paradoja es reveladora: el gobierno busca castigar el uso de combustibles contaminantes en un sector que aún no tiene acceso a opciones sostenibles en el país. Tres cuartas partes de los pasajeros aéreos colombianos pertenecen a estratos medios y bajos, y son ellos quienes cargarían con el peso de una política ambiental sin salida práctica.

  • El impuesto al carbono sobre el combustible de aviación pasaría de 202 a 420 pesos por unidad, un aumento del 108% que se traduciría casi de inmediato en tiquetes más costosos.
  • El combustible ya representa más del 30% de los costos operativos de las aerolíneas en Colombia, por encima del promedio global, lo que convierte cualquier alza en un golpe directo a la tarifa final.
  • El 75% de los usuarios del transporte aéreo pertenece a los estratos 2 y 3, personas para quienes volar ya es un esfuerzo económico considerable y que podrían quedar excluidas del servicio.
  • La industria no tiene alternativa: el combustible de aviación sostenible no está disponible en Colombia, y la legislación para promoverlo apenas supera su primer debate en el Congreso.
  • Las aerolíneas piden al Congreso eliminar las disposiciones más gravosas de la reforma y, a futuro, reducir el IVA del 19% que ya pesa sobre tiquetes y combustible, citando el precedente pandémico en que una rebaja temporal disparó la demanda.

La reforma tributaria del presidente Gustavo Petro ha encendido las alarmas en el sector de la aviación colombiana. El proyecto radicado en el Congreso en septiembre pasado contempla elevar el impuesto al carbono sobre el combustible de aviación de 202 a 420 pesos por unidad, un incremento del 108% que, dado que el combustible representa más del 30% de los costos operativos de las aerolíneas en el país, se reflejaría inevitablemente en el precio de los tiquetes.

Paula Bernal, directora general de la Asociación Internacional de Transporte Aéreo para Colombia, fue directa: el alza encarecerá las tarifas en cuanto la reforma sea aprobada, y no traerá ningún beneficio ambiental real, porque el combustible de aviación sostenible sencillamente no está disponible en Colombia. Aunque la Aeronáutica Civil publicó una hoja de ruta en enero, el proyecto de ley para promover su producción y distribución apenas ha superado su primer debate parlamentario. El impuesto, en otras palabras, castiga a una industria que no tiene cómo cumplir con la intención verde de la política.

El impacto más duro recaería sobre quienes menos pueden absorberlo. El 75% de los pasajeros aéreos colombianos pertenece a los estratos 2 y 3, colombianos de clase trabajadora y media-baja que vuelan para visitar familia, buscar empleo o acceder a servicios que no existen en sus regiones. Un aumento significativo en las tarifas los dejaría sin esa opción. Esto se suma a una carga tributaria que ya supera el promedio global: el 30% del costo de un tiquete doméstico corresponde a impuestos y tasas; en vuelos internacionales, esa cifra supera el 50%.

Bernal recordó un dato elocuente: durante la pandemia, cuando el gobierno redujo temporalmente el IVA sobre los tiquetes del 19% al 5%, la demanda creció de forma notoria. La aviación es el único servicio de transporte público en Colombia gravado con el IVA pleno del 19%, tanto en tiquetes como en combustible. El sector le pide al Congreso que elimine las disposiciones más dañinas de la reforma y que, en el mediano plazo, considere reducir ese IVA. Si ese llamado será escuchado, aún está por verse.

President Gustavo Petro's proposed tax reform has set off alarms in Colombia's aviation sector, and for good reason: the government is planning to nearly double the carbon tax on jet fuel, a move that would ripple directly into the pockets of the country's working poor.

The numbers are stark. Under the reform bill filed in Congress last September, the per-unit tax on jet fuel would jump from 202 pesos to 420 pesos—a 108 percent increase. For airlines, this is not an abstract policy concern. Aviation fuel accounts for more than 30 percent of their operating costs in Colombia, a figure that exceeds the global average of around 25 percent. When fuel gets more expensive, tickets follow.

Paula Bernal, the general manager of the International Air Transport Association for Colombia, laid out the problem plainly: the tax hike would immediately drive up airfare prices once the reform passes, and the magnitude of those increases would vary depending on each airline's particular situation. But the direction is certain. She emphasized that the reform offers no environmental benefit to justify the cost—airlines cannot simply switch to greener fuel because sustainable aviation fuel is not currently available in Colombia, despite a roadmap issued by the Civil Aeronautics Authority in January.

The timing of this tax increase reveals a deeper problem. The government's stated goal is to incentivize cleaner fuels, but the aviation industry has no alternative to jet fuel right now. A bill to promote sustainable aviation fuel production and distribution is still working through Congress—it only passed its first committee debate. So the tax is being imposed on an industry with no escape route, no way to comply with the environmental intent behind the policy.

The burden falls hardest on those least able to absorb it. Three-quarters of Colombia's airline passengers come from income strata 2 and 3—working-class and lower-middle-class Colombians for whom air travel is already a stretch. These are people flying to visit family, attend job interviews, or access services unavailable in their home regions. A meaningful increase in ticket prices will price many of them out entirely. The reform also cuts the ability to offset emissions from 50 percent to 30 percent, further tightening the squeeze without offering any compensating benefit.

Airlines in Colombia already operate under a competitive disadvantage. About 30 percent of the cost of a domestic ticket goes to taxes and fees; for international flights, that figure exceeds 50 percent. These percentages sit above the global average, meaning Colombian carriers are already burdened with a heavier tax load than their international competitors. The proposed reform would make that gap wider still.

Bernal pointed to a precedent from the pandemic: when the government temporarily reduced the value-added tax on airfares from 19 to 5 percent, demand surged noticeably. Aviation is the only public transportation service in Colombia subject to the full 19 percent VAT on both tickets and fuel. The industry is asking Congress to consider eliminating the two most damaging provisions of the reform and, looking ahead, to reduce the VAT as a way to support the sector. Whether that plea will be heard remains an open question as the debate unfolds.

This increase in the carbon tax creates concern, especially because no environmental benefits emerge while ticket prices rise
— Paula Bernal, general manager of the International Air Transport Association for Colombia
The reform does not include a reduction in VAT, which would be very important to consider
— Paula Bernal
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Inventor

Why does the carbon tax on jet fuel matter so much if the goal is environmental?

Model

Because there's no alternative. The government is taxing the only fuel airlines can use. It's like putting a heavy toll on the only road to a city and calling it an environmental policy.

Inventor

But doesn't that pressure airlines to find greener options?

Model

In theory, yes. In practice, sustainable aviation fuel doesn't exist here yet. There's a bill in Congress, but it's barely moving. You can't force an industry to use something that isn't available.

Inventor

Who actually pays when ticket prices go up?

Model

The 75 percent of passengers from lower-income neighborhoods. These aren't wealthy business travelers. They're people flying to see family or chase a job opportunity. A 10 or 15 percent ticket increase could mean they stop flying altogether.

Inventor

Is Colombia's aviation sector already expensive compared to other countries?

Model

Yes. Taxes and fees already eat up 30 percent of domestic ticket prices and over 50 percent of international ones. That's above the global average. This reform makes it worse.

Inventor

What would actually help?

Model

The industry wants the VAT reduced, like it was during the pandemic. That worked—demand jumped. But this reform doesn't touch VAT. It only adds more weight.

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