The incumbent's advantage is clear—but whether it will prove decisive remains open.
Na maior cidade da Amazônia, o prefeito David Almeida chega à reta final da campanha municipal de 2024 com uma vantagem sólida, mas não definitiva: 32% das intenções de voto em um campo fragmentado revelam tanto a força do incumbente quanto a incerteza que ainda paira sobre o destino da eleição. Pesquisas são retratos do momento, não profecias — e com quatro por cento do eleitorado ainda sem decisão e a oposição dividida entre múltiplos candidatos, Manaus ainda não escreveu o desfecho desta disputa.
- David Almeida lidera com 32% e abre dez pontos de vantagem sobre os rivais mais próximos, uma margem real em qualquer eleição competitiva.
- Roberto Cidade (22%) e Amom Mandel (16%) disputam o segundo lugar dentro da margem de erro, tornando a briga pelo vice-liderança estatisticamente indefinida.
- A oposição se fragmenta em pelo menos quatro candidatos viáveis, impedindo a consolidação de uma alternativa única ao incumbente.
- Com 4% de indecisos e 6% propensos ao voto nulo ou à abstenção, o eleitorado flutuante ainda pode redesenhar o cenário antes do primeiro turno.
- Almeida está próximo de evitar o segundo turno, mas ainda distante dos 50% necessários — a campanha entra em sua fase mais decisiva com o resultado em aberto.
David Almeida, prefeito em exercício de Manaus, lidera a corrida pela reeleição com 32% das intenções de voto, segundo pesquisa da Real Time Big Data divulgada na segunda-feira. O levantamento, realizado nos dias 20 e 21 de setembro com mil eleitores manauaras, revela um campo eleitoral ainda em formação — o incumbente à frente, mas longe de uma vitória garantida.
O segundo escalão da disputa é marcado pela proximidade estatística: Roberto Cidade, deputado estadual pelo União Brasil, aparece com 22%, enquanto Amom Mandel, deputado federal pelo Cidadania, registra 16%. Ambos estão dentro da margem de erro de três pontos percentuais, o que torna sua ordem relativa incerta — mas a distância de dez pontos que os separa de Almeida é estatisticamente robusta.
Mais atrás, o campo se fragmenta. Capitão Alberto Neto, do PL, marca 13%; Marcelo Ramos, do PT, aparece com 7%; e dois outros candidatos não registram apoio mensurável. Quatro por cento dos entrevistados ainda não decidiram o voto, e seis por cento indicam intenção de votar em branco, anular ou se abster.
A pesquisa, encomendada pela TV Record ao custo de 15 mil reais e registrada na Justiça Eleitoral sob o número AM-01611/2024, segue os padrões técnicos habituais do setor. Para Almeida, o desafio das próximas semanas é transformar a liderança em maioria absoluta — tarefa possível, mas que depende de uma oposição que, por ora, prefere se dividir a se unir.
David Almeida, the sitting mayor of Manaus, holds a commanding lead in the race to keep his job. A poll released Monday by Real Time Big Data shows him drawing support from nearly a third of voters—32 percent—a substantial margin in a crowded field. The survey, conducted over two days in mid-September among 1,000 Manaus residents, captures a municipal election still taking shape, with the incumbent well ahead but the outcome far from settled.
The second tier of candidates clusters tightly together, separated more by statistical noise than by any clear distinction in voter preference. Roberto Cidade, a state legislator from the União Brasil party, sits at 22 percent. Amom Mandel, a federal deputy representing Cidadania, trails just behind at 16 percent. Both men fall within the poll's margin of error—three percentage points in either direction—meaning their actual support could be nearly identical. The gap between them and Almeida, however, is real: ten points is a substantial lead in any election.
Behind these three frontrunners, the field fragments further. Capitão Alberto Neto, the PL candidate, registers at 13 percent. Marcelo Ramos, running for the Workers' Party, draws just 7 percent support. Two other candidates—Wilker Barreto and Gilberto Vasconcelos—register no measurable support in the survey. Four percent of respondents remain undecided, and six percent say they will either cast blank ballots, spoil their votes, or skip the election entirely.
The poll was conducted September 20 and 21, 2024, and carries the standard markers of professional survey work: a 95 percent confidence interval, a registered filing with Brazil's electoral authority under number AM-01611/2024, and a cost of 15,000 reais, paid by TV Record. The sample size of 1,000 voters is typical for municipal-level polling in Brazil.
Almeida's lead suggests he could potentially avoid a runoff if he can consolidate support and push above 50 percent before the first round. But the presence of four viable candidates below him, combined with the undecided voters still in play, means the race retains genuine fluidity. In a city where the opposition is split across multiple candidates and parties, the incumbent's advantage is clear—but whether it will prove decisive remains an open question as the campaign enters its final weeks.
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does a ten-point lead feel significant when the second-place candidates are so close together?
Because Almeida's 32 percent is a floor of actual support, while Cidade and Mandel are fighting over the same voters. If one of them consolidates the anti-Almeida vote, the race tightens fast. Right now they're splitting it.
What does that 4 percent undecided number tell us?
It's small enough that it won't swing the election on its own, but it's a reminder that people are still making up their minds. In a fragmented field like this, late movement matters.
Could Almeida win outright in the first round?
Mathematically, yes—if he holds his 32 and the opposition stays split. But 50 percent is a high bar. More likely this goes to a runoff, and then the dynamics change completely. Whoever finishes second will probably consolidate the anti-Almeida vote.
What's the significance of TV Record paying for this poll?
It's worth noting because media outlets have their own interests. But the poll is registered with the electoral authority and has a transparent methodology, so the numbers themselves are reliable. The question is just what the outlet does with them.
Is 1,000 voters enough to trust this?
For a city the size of Manaus, yes. That sample size with a three-point margin of error is standard professional work. You're not going to get perfect precision, but you're getting a genuine picture of where the race stands.