At a moment when Australians are watching their savings thin and their spending shrink, Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn has offered a measured but uncertain reading of the country's economic horizon. He believes the Reserve Bank has likely finished raising interest rates, yet cautions that November's board meeting remains genuinely open — contingent on inflation data that has not yet arrived. His words carry the weight of a man who sees both the immediate pressure on households and the longer structural questions about productivity, housing, and fiscal resilience that will shape the nation's
RBA's November rate decision 'live,' CBA chief says, pending inflation data
It's much easier to distribute a growing pie than one that isn't.
Mark
So when Comyn says the November meeting is "live," what does that actually mean for someone with a mortgage?
Mimi
It means the RBA might raise rates again if inflation data comes in hot. Right now CBA thinks they're done, but they're not certain. That uncertainty is the whole story.
Luke
But we should be clear: this is CBA's view, not the RBA's. Comyn is reading the same tea leaves as everyone else. The actual decision depends on data we haven't seen yet.
Mark
He talks about housing bouncing back. Is that realistic given how much prices might fall?
Mimi
He's betting on two things: rates falling next year, and structural undersupply driving demand back up. Housing is 57 percent of household wealth in Australia, so the bank has skin in the game.
Luke
True, but he's also comparing to 2023 when prices fell 8.2 percent, and saying current predictions are 10 percent. That's not a huge difference. The "bounce back" depends entirely on rates actually falling as expected.
Mark
What about his productivity argument? Is that just banker talk?
Mimi
He's saying Australia can't grow living standards without growing productivity, and productivity is being strangled by regulation and fragmentation between state and federal governments. It's a real constraint.
Luke
It's a diagnosis, not a solution. He identifies the problem—too many approval layers, too much duplication—but doesn't say how to fix it or what the political cost would be.
Mark
He seems worried about government deficits. Why does that matter now?
Mimi
Because when the next shock hits—and he thinks shocks are coming more often—the government won't have fiscal room to respond. He's thinking about future generations.
Luke
Fair point, but he doesn't quantify what "too much deficit" means or compare Australia's position to other developed economies. It's a concern flagged, not a crisis diagnosed.
The Pulse
- The November RBA meeting is 'live' — another rate rise cannot be ruled out until late-October inflation figures land, leaving households and markets in a state of suspended uncertainty.
- Higher borrowing costs are already biting: consumer spending is falling, savings are eroding, and some business sectors are beginning to feel the drag of weakened household demand.
- Despite the pressure, doubtful debts remain well below historical averages and business lending grew 13 percent in the last financial year, suggesting the economy has not yet cracked under the strain.
- Comyn expects housing prices to recover once rates fall, anchored by a structural undersupply that demand alone cannot solve — but warns that Australia's inability to build fast enough remains the deeper problem.
- Beyond rates, Comyn is sounding a longer alarm: regulatory fragmentation, government deficits run during good times, and stalled productivity growth are quietly narrowing Australia's room to manoeuvre when the next shock arrives.
At a moment when Australians are watching their savings thin and their spending shrink, Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn has offered a measured but uncertain reading of the country's economic horizon. He believes the Reserve Bank has likely finished raising interest rates, yet cautions that November's board meeting remains genuinely open — contingent on inflation data that has not yet arrived. His words carry the weight of a man who sees both the immediate pressure on households and the longer structural questions about productivity, housing, and fiscal resilience that will shape the nation's capacity to absorb whatever shocks come next.
Matt Comyn, chief executive of Australia's largest bank, told the ABC's Alan Kohler that while Commonwealth Bank believes the Reserve Bank has finished raising interest rates, the November board meeting is far from settled. Everything depends on quarterly inflation data due at the end of October. The September rate rise was justified, he said, given global pressures including the Middle East conflict and fuel price spikes — but the next move will be dictated entirely by what those figures reveal.
In the meantime, the human cost of higher rates is already visible in CBA's own data. Household spending is down, savings are shrinking, and borrowers carrying heavy mortgage loads are pulling back. Some business sectors are feeling the pressure too. Yet the picture is not uniformly bleak — business lending grew 13 percent across the financial year, and doubtful debts remain well below historical norms, partly because unemployment has held steady.
On housing, Comyn struck a cautiously optimistic note. National prices fell 8.2 percent when rates peaked in 2023, and a further 10 percent drop is forecast this year. But he expects recovery once rates ease, driven by Australia's persistent structural undersupply. Housing represents 57 percent of household wealth, he noted — and the real problem is not a lack of demand but the country's failure to build quickly enough to meet it.
Comyn used the conversation to press a broader argument about productivity. The difference between 2 and 3 percent annual productivity growth compounds enormously over time, he said, and unlocking it requires cheaper energy, better skills, migration, technology, and — critically — far less regulatory friction. He described the layering of Commonwealth and state government approvals as a structural drag, making it harder for new and small businesses to form and succeed.
He also raised concern about fiscal deficits being run during relatively strong economic conditions, warning that this erodes the buffer available when genuine shocks hit. Like RBA Governor Michele Bullock, Comyn sees volatility becoming the new normal — shocks arriving more frequently and with greater force, against a backdrop of ageing demographics and rising service costs that make resilience harder to maintain.
Matt Comyn, who runs Australia's largest bank, sat down with the ABC's Alan Kohler to talk about where interest rates go from here—and his answer was more complicated than a simple yes or no. Commonwealth Bank believes the Reserve Bank has finished raising rates, he said. But the board's November meeting is still very much in play. Another hike remains possible. Everything hinges on the quarterly inflation figures due at the end of October.
"We believe that's the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live," Comyn said. The September increase was justified, he acknowledged, because global pressures—the Middle East conflict, fuel price spikes—had pushed inflation higher. But the bank is watching closely. The next move depends entirely on what the inflation data shows.
What Comyn is seeing in the real world tells its own story. Customers are feeling the weight of higher rates. Spending is down in some households. Savings are shrinking. People exposed to higher borrowing costs and mortgages are pulling back. Some business sectors are starting to hurt too, as consumer and household demand weakens. Yet there are bright spots. Business lending grew 13 percent across the 2026 financial year. Doubtful debts remain low—well below historical averages—largely because unemployment is still holding steady.
On housing, Comyn is optimistic. He expects property prices to recover. When rates peaked in 2023, national house prices fell 8.2 percent. Current predictions suggest a 10 percent drop this year. But if rates fall as expected next year, demand will rise again, he said, especially given Australia's structural shortage of housing. "Housing is a very important asset in Australia. I think it's 57 per cent of household wealth in the country," he noted. The real constraint, he argued, is not demand but supply—the country's inability to build housing productively enough to meet need.
Comyn used the conversation to push a broader economic argument: Australia needs to lift productivity. A 3 percent productivity growth rate versus 2 percent makes an enormous difference over time, he said. That growth comes from housing, cheap energy, skills, migration, and technology—including artificial intelligence. But it also requires removing obstacles. "We need to make it easier for small businesses or new businesses to be created that are successful and productive," he said. "And I think that's very hard in the current context."
He pointed to regulation and approvals as the main culprits. Too many layers. Too much fragmentation between Commonwealth and state governments. "It's much easier to distribute a growing pie than one that isn't," he said. The federal system itself is a problem, he suggested—like having duplicate controls inside a company, making it harder to see the whole picture and spot waste.
Comyn also flagged concern about government deficits. Running deficits during good economic times erodes the fiscal room to maneuver when shocks hit. "We're seeing a big increase in fiscal deficits around the world. I think this is reducing degrees of freedom. This puts a lot of pressure on future generations in particular," he said. He supports higher defence spending but acknowledged the trade-offs are not easy to navigate.
Like RBA Governor Michele Bullock, Comyn has noticed something else: volatility is becoming the norm. Shocks are hitting more frequently and potentially with greater force. Australia faces structural challenges—aging demographics, the cost of delivering services citizens expect—that make absorbing those shocks harder. The path forward requires both immediate decisions on rates and inflation, and longer-term choices about productivity, regulation, and fiscal discipline.
Notable Quotes
We believe that's the last [rate rise], but certainly I think the last meeting of this calendar year is live.— Matt Comyn, Commonwealth Bank CEO
The biggest issue over the long term is our inability to grow productivity in terms of the production of housing.— Matt Comyn, Commonwealth Bank CEO
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