Race for First Private Space Station Heats Up as NASA Prepares to Retire the ISS

Cheaper launches do not make a station cheap to run.
Starship may cut launch costs, but operating a commercial station remains expensive and profitability is uncertain.
Mark

Why does the ISS retirement open the door for companies like Vast?

Mimi

NASA spends up to $4 billion a year on the station, about a third of its human spaceflight budget. It wants to buy services instead of running programmes itself, and to focus on the Moon.

Mark

So the money is the draw.

Mimi

Up to $1.5 billion in NASA funding, due to be awarded in April 2026. Vast, Axiom, Voyager with Airbus, and Blue Origin are all competing for it.

Luke

Worth saying that the $1.5 billion is a ceiling, not a guarantee. The report says up to that amount, and doesn't say how it will be split or how many winners there will be.

Mark

And the launch costs? Bonnet's numbers sound dramatic.

Mimi

$60,000 per kilogram not long ago, and under $200 once Starship is operational in 2030.

Luke

That second figure is a projection from one person, tied to a rocket that is not yet operational. I'd treat it as an expectation.

Mark

Can these companies make money?

Mimi

Hainaut says she isn't sure about long-term profitability. Vast expects 85 percent of crewed mission revenue from state agencies.

Luke

Which is also Vast's own forecast. And the claim of under $100 million per astronaut comes from the company's advisor, so there's no independent check on it here.

  • NASA's aging space station is set to be retired around 2030, leaving a gap that private firms are rushing to fill.
  • Vast, Axiom, Voyager with Airbus, and Blue Origin are racing for a share of up to $1.5 billion in government funding.
  • The April 2026 NASA award is the immediate checkpoint that will decide which contenders can move from design to hardware.
  • Suppliers like Thales Alenia Space are pressed by aggressive timelines and must cut prices while still delivering flight-ready modules.
  • Investors and analysts doubt whether demand beyond government customers will be strong enough to keep these stations profitable.

At a technology summit in Lisbon, a former astronaut described a small, comfort-minded station that his company hopes will open a new chapter after the International Space Station. The ISS, long the shared home of human spaceflight, is expected to be retired around 2030, and governments are beginning to step back from owning such infrastructure, preferring to buy its services instead. Whether these ventures can thrive on the cost of rockets that keep falling, but on customers whose budgets and appetites remain uncertain, is the question that will shape where humanity works in orbit next.

At the Web Summit in Lisbon, Andrew Feustel, a former NASA astronaut now advising the California company Vast, described a compact station designed with comfort in mind. Haven-1, as it is called, is scheduled to launch in May 2026 and is expected to host several crews of four over a three-year life.

Haven-1 is only the opening move in a crowded contest. NASA's International Space Station is due to end its service around 2030, and several companies want to build what comes next. Vast, founded in 2021 by billionaire Jed McCaleb, aims ultimately to replace the station with the larger Haven-2. Axiom Space, Voyager Space with Airbus, and Blue Origin, founded by Jeff Bezos, are all competing for the same prize.

That prize is a NASA budget of up to $1.5 billion for commercial stations, with an award expected in April 2026. Keeping the ISS running costs up to $4 billion a year, a heavy share of the agency's human spaceflight spending. Ugo Bonnet of the Spaceflight Institute observed that space agencies no longer wish to manage such infrastructure themselves.

Suppliers are adapting too. Thales Alenia Space is preparing the first pressurised modules for Axiom's station, which could be operational by 2028, and its executives warn that the old ways of building will not survive faster timelines and tighter prices. Yet cheaper rockets from SpaceX only go so far, and researchers such as Beatrice Hainaut question whether these firms can stay profitable once government demand is no longer the main draw.

At the Web Summit in Lisbon, Andrew Feustel, a former NASA astronaut who now advises the California company Vast, described a spacecraft built with comfort in mind. It is called Haven-1, a mini station scheduled to launch in May 2026. Feustel told AFP it has a three-year lifespan, during which Vast plans to send multiple crews of four to visit it.

Haven-1 is Vast's opening move in a crowded race. NASA's International Space Station is due to come out of service in 2030, and several companies want to build the first commercial station to follow it. Vast was founded in 2021 by billionaire Jed McCaleb. It aims to replace the ISS with Haven-2, a larger version of the first model. Its rivals include Axiom Space, Voyager Space in partnership with Airbus, and Blue Origin, the company founded by Amazon's Jeff Bezos.

The prize is a NASA budget of up to $1.5 billion for developing commercial space stations, which is due to be awarded in April 2026. The ISS is expensive to keep running: NASA spends up to $4 billion a year on it, roughly a third of the agency's annual human spaceflight budget. Ugo Bonnet, director of the Spaceflight Institute, which trains people for commercial human missions, said space agencies no longer want to manage that kind of infrastructure.

NASA's reasons are also strategic. Locked in competition with China, the agency wants to concentrate on crewed missions to the Moon by the end of the decade and, eventually, a base on the lunar surface. For the ISS successor it plans to buy services instead of managing programmes itself, an arrangement that is a real boon for private companies in the space market.

The suppliers are adjusting. Thales Alenia Space, a French-Italian joint venture, is due to deliver the first two pressurised modules for Axiom's planned station, which could be operational as early as 2028. The company also built half the pressurised modules for the ISS. Roberto Angelini, director of its Exploration and Science Domain, said many players are arriving with very aggressive timelines and that things cannot be done the way they were in the past. Its main challenge, he said, is to remain competitive on price.

SpaceX's reusable rockets made these projects thinkable by lowering transport costs. Vast plans to launch Haven-1 on a SpaceX Falcon 9, and Axiom's private mission will carry astronauts in a Crew Dragon capsule. Bonnet noted that sending a kilogram into space cost $60,000 just 15 to 20 years ago. He said that when SpaceX's Starship launcher becomes operational in 2030, the cost will fall below $200 per kilogram.

Cheaper launches do not make a station cheap to run, though. Beatrice Hainaut, a space policy researcher at the Institute for Strategic Research at the Military School, said she is not sure about the companies' long-term profitability. They are counting on rising demand from governments and the private sector. Vast predicts that 85 percent of its crewed mission revenue will come from state agencies and 15 percent from private clients. Feustel said the company wants to be a service provider not only to the US government but to any country that wants to send astronauts up for training and research, and that an astronaut can be put in space on a Vast spacecraft for less than $100 million.

The April 2026 NASA award is the next test. After that, the question is whether these firms can stay price-competitive and profitable beyond what government customers will pay.

The station has a three-year lifespan, and Vast plans to visit it with multiple crews of four.
— Andrew Feustel, former NASA astronaut and Vast advisor
She is not sure about the companies' long-term profitability.
— Beatrice Hainaut, space policy researcher, Institute for Strategic Research
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