Quebec separatists poised for power as PQ surges on identity politics

Quebec voters are heading to the polls on Monday with the Parti Québécois positioned to return to power for the first time in more than a decade—a separatist party that has promised to hold a referendum on independence from Canada within two years. The province, home to roughly nine million people, has not elected a PQ government since the early 2010s, and a victory would reshape the political landscape in ways that extend far beyond Quebec's borders.

The party's resurgence rests almost entirely on the shoulders of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old Oxford-educated lawyer and polyglot who has positioned himself as a generational alternative to François Legault, Quebec's long-serving premier who stepped down earlier this year. Plamondon has become a fixture on TikTok and other platforms where younger voters congregate, but his electoral appeal has little to do with the traditional separatist argument. Polls show that most Quebecers do not actually support independence. Instead, Plamondon has built his campaign on identity politics of a different sort—blaming immigrants for overcrowded schools, rising crime, and housing shortages, while pledging to slash immigration levels and prohibit what he calls "conspicuous" religious symbols worn by teachers and students. He has dismissed critics from the left-leaning Quebec Solidaire party as "woke" and adopted the rhetorical style of hard-right columnists.

This represents a sharp departure from the PQ's historical roots in social democracy, yet it resonates with a significant portion of the electorate. Radio host Patrick Lagacé observed that while most Quebecers traditionally identify with the political left, they have hardened considerably on social questions—immigration, religious accommodation, systemic racism—and no longer see themselves reflected in what they perceive as the left's recent preoccupations. The shift reveals a fracture between Quebec's self-image as a progressive society and the actual drift of public opinion on these particular issues.

The one element that has consistently dragged on Plamondon's popularity is his repeated promise to hold a referendum during his first term as premier. An overwhelming majority of Quebecers oppose such a move, particularly given that Canada is currently locked in a trade war with the United States. In last year's federal election, Quebec voters chose Liberal leader Mark Carney and his "elbows up" stance against the Trump administration over the separatist Bloc Québécois, a clear signal of where the province's priorities lay. Plamondon initially said he would not hold a referendum while Trump remained in power, a tactical retreat that allowed him to shift the campaign's focus back to immigration and away from the constitutional question that most voters wanted to avoid.

The PQ has also benefited from a fragmented right-leaning vote. Beyond Montreal, which remains a reliable Liberal stronghold, the nationalist vote is splitting four ways, with the upstart Parti Conservateur du Québec making significant gains, particularly around Quebec City. Poll analyst Philippe Fournier noted that the PQ's advantage stems partly from the fact that voters opposed to the party cannot agree on an alternative. Current polling puts the PQ at roughly 30 percent—below the threshold typically needed for a majority government, leaving the shape and strength of any mandate uncertain.

If the PQ does form the next government, Plamondon has already signaled his intention to provoke confrontation with Ottawa. He has suggested defunding the office of Quebec's lieutenant-governor, the Crown's representative in the province, and promised legislation to sever Quebec's ties with the monarchy—a symbol that separatists have long viewed as emblematic of French-Canadian oppression. He has also attacked Prime Minister Carney's stated intention to increase immigration, calling it an "abuse of power" that would further damage French-language services in the province.

These moves carry an anachronistic quality, echoing the PQ's confrontational posture from the 1970s when the party was at its ideological height. They are also potentially risky. Carney remains popular in Quebec and is likely to maintain that support as long as the Trump threat looms large enough to dominate voters' concerns. The question facing Plamondon is whether he can sustain a government built on identity grievances while avoiding the constitutional crisis that most Quebecers have explicitly rejected.