The week opens on a hushed American calendar, with bond markets closed for Columbus Day, and then gathers momentum as the third quarter's accounts begin to arrive. Banks, airlines, and health companies will soon reveal how the pandemic-scarred months actually landed on their ledgers, while inflation readings and consumer surveys hint at whether ordinary households are regaining their footing. Across the same days, finance ministers and development officials meet virtually to weigh a global recovery that remains uneven and uncertain. It is a week less about any single surprise than about a soci
Q3 Bank Earnings, Inflation Data and IMF Meetings Headline a Busy Week for Investors
Third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest on Tuesday.
Mark
Why does a bank earnings week matter so much?
Mimi
Citigroup and JPMorgan open the season Tuesday, and Bank of America and Wells Fargo follow Wednesday. Those are the four largest U.S. banks by assets, so they set the tone before the rest report.
Luke
Worth noting that the piece previews what's scheduled. None of the earnings results are in it, so nothing here says how the banks did.
Mark
What about the inflation numbers?
Mimi
September CPI is expected up 1.4% year over year, versus 1.3% in August. Core CPI is seen at 1.8%, about flat with August.
Luke
Those are consensus forecasts, not actual readings. The actual data could differ.
Mark
And Friday?
Mimi
Retail sales are forecast up 0.8% to $542 billion, while excluding autos the gain is seen slowing to 0.3% from 0.7%. Michigan sentiment is expected at 80.8.
Luke
Again, forecasts. The one hard number is last week's 840,000 jobless claims, the lowest since mid-March.
Mark
And the IMF meetings?
Mimi
They run virtually all week, and investors are listening for news.
Luke
The article doesn't say what is expected from them, so that's an open question.
O Pulso
- Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase open the earnings season Tuesday, and the market is reading their results for signs of how deep the pandemic's damage to lending and trading really runs.
- Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo follow in quick succession, so investors are weighing a cluster of big-bank numbers in a single short stretch.
- September consumer prices are expected to edge up to 1.4 percent, with core inflation holding near 1.8 percent, suggesting prices are steady rather than surging.
- Jobless claims at their lowest since mid-March and firm producer prices point toward a recovery that is gaining ground, though the IMF and World Bank meetings remain a source of global uncertainty.
- Friday's sentiment and retail-sales figures will show whether consumers are willing to spend again, a key test of where the recovery is heading.
The week opens on a hushed American calendar, with bond markets closed for Columbus Day, and then gathers momentum as the third quarter's accounts begin to arrive. Banks, airlines, and health companies will soon reveal how the pandemic-scarred months actually landed on their ledgers, while inflation readings and consumer surveys hint at whether ordinary households are regaining their footing. Across the same days, finance ministers and development officials meet virtually to weigh a global recovery that remains uneven and uncertain. It is a week less about any single surprise than about a society taking stock, measuring its money and its mood at once.
The week begins quietly. U.S. bond markets are shut for Columbus Day, and Canadian exchanges are closed for Thanksgiving, but the calendar fills fast. The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank open the same day, held online this year, and they will run all week as officials discuss the global economy.
Tuesday marks the real start of third-quarter earnings season. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, two of the four largest U.S. banks by assets, report first. Bank of America and Wells Fargo follow on Wednesday, alongside Goldman Sachs and a wide range of companies from airlines to health care firms. Thursday and Friday bring more reports from banks, transport companies, and industrial firms, giving investors a steady stream of results to study.
Inflation data anchors the economic calendar. On Tuesday, the September Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 1.4 percent from a year earlier, slightly above August's pace, while core prices are seen roughly flat at 1.8 percent. On Wednesday, the Producer Price Index is forecast to gain 0.2 percent, a slowdown from August's stronger readings.
The labor and consumer picture completes the week. Jobless claims for the week ending October 10 follow a figure of 840,000, the lowest since mid-March. On Friday, consumer sentiment and September retail sales arrive, with sales expected to rise 0.8 percent. Investors will read all of it together, looking for signs of how the recovery is holding up as the week closes.
On Monday, October 12, 2020, U.S. bond markets sit shut for Columbus Day and Canadian exchanges close for Thanksgiving. It is a quiet start to a week that fills up quickly. The annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank also open that day, held virtually this year, and they run all week.
Tuesday is when third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest. Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase report first, and they are two of the four largest U.S. banks by assets. The other two, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, follow on Wednesday. Also reporting Tuesday are BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, Fastenal, First Republic Bank and Johnson & Johnson.
Wednesday brings Goldman Sachs Group, PNC Financial Services Group, United Airlines Holdings, UnitedHealth Group and U.S. Bancorp. Medtronic holds its biennial investor and analyst meeting that day, with CEO Geoff Martha among the speakers. On Thursday, Intuitive Surgical, Morgan Stanley, Truist Financial and Walgreens Boots Alliance hold calls to discuss results. Friday's reports come from Bank of New York Mellon, Citizens Financial Group, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Kansas City Southern, Schlumberger, State Street and VF Corp.
Two inflation readings anchor the economic calendar. On Tuesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September Consumer Price Index. Forecasters expect a 1.4% year-over-year rise, ahead of August's 1.3%. The core measure, which strips out food and energy, is seen at 1.8%, roughly even with August. Tuesday also brings the National Federation of Independent Business's Small Business Optimism Index for September, with a consensus reading of 100.9 against August's 100.2.
On Wednesday the BLS publishes the September Producer Price Index. Economists forecast a 0.2% monthly gain, with the core index also up 0.2%. In August the two measures rose 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.
Thursday's data begins with the Labor Department's weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10. The previous week's figure was 840,000, the lowest since mid-March. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey for October is also due, with consensus at 12, down from September's 17.
Friday closes the week with two consumer-focused releases. The University of Michigan's October Consumer Sentiment Index is expected at 80.8, similar to September's 80.2. The Census Bureau's September retail sales are forecast to rise 0.8% for the month, to $542 billion. Excluding autos, sales are seen up 0.3%, slower than August's 0.7% gain.
Investors will also be listening for news out of the IMF and World Bank meetings. The bank reports, the inflation readings and Friday's consumer data are the main checkpoints for the week.
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