Putin's Kuril Islands visit signals punishment for Japan's Ukraine support

Vladimir Putin stepped onto the island of Iturup last week, and in doing so, he delivered what analysts describe as a carefully calibrated insult to Japan. It was the Russian president's first-ever visit to one of the Kuril Islands, a chain of territory that sits in the waters between Russia and Japan, claimed by both nations and disputed for nearly eighty years. He toured a school, a hospital, industrial facilities. The timing was deliberate: the visit came just two days before August 15, the anniversary of Japan's surrender in World War II—the very moment when Soviet troops seized these islands from a defeated Japan, forcing 17,300 residents to abandon their homes over the following year.

Tokyo's response was immediate and sharp. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called the visit "absolutely unacceptable" on social media, reasserting Japan's claim to what it calls the "Northern Territories." Russia's Foreign Ministry fired back, declaring the islands an "integral part" of Russian territory. But beneath the diplomatic volleys lies a deeper calculation. According to James Brown, a professor of international relations at Temple University's Tokyo campus, Putin's visit was a message—one aimed at punishing Japan for its unwavering support of Ukraine and its deepening ties with NATO members in Europe. "There is a clear desire to punish Japan," Brown told Deutsche Welle. Yet the move also serves a domestic purpose: it generates patriotic fervor among Russians across the political spectrum, a useful tool for any leader seeking to consolidate support.

The territorial dispute between Russia and Japan stretches back to the end of World War II, but it has never been resolved. No formal peace treaty exists between the two nations. For decades, successive Japanese governments have maintained that the Soviet seizure was illegal, a position that has poisoned bilateral relations. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Japan saw an opening. Economic hardship in Russia created an opportunity: perhaps Moscow could be persuaded to return the islands in exchange for financial aid or joint development agreements. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pursued this possibility more aggressively than most, meeting repeatedly with Putin to make the case. None of it worked. In 2020, Russia amended its constitution to explicitly prohibit the ceding of any territory to a foreign power—a legal lock that effectively closed the door on negotiation.

Then came Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Japan's relationship with Moscow deteriorated sharply. Tokyo imposed sanctions alongside the West. Yet Japan remains dependent on Russian energy, a vulnerability that has only deepened given tensions with Iran. This dependency constrains Tokyo's options. Toshimitsu Shigemura, a professor of politics at Waseda University, told Deutsche Welle that Japan has already summoned the Russian ambassador and filed a formal protest, but adding new sanctions would be difficult given the energy situation. "Japan is in a relatively weak position," Shigemura said.

Analysts believe Putin's move is also a test of Prime Minister Takaichi herself. Her domestic poll numbers are softening, and Putin likely calculates that she lacks the political capital to respond with anything more forceful than words. Shigemura suggests that Putin may be coordinating with China and North Korea to weaken Takaichi's standing on security issues—a coordinated pressure campaign against a leader who has taken a firm line in the region. More broadly, Shigemura argues that Russia's revised constitution and the nationalist sentiment cultivated by state propaganda have made the return of the islands "impossible." Even if Putin were to fall from power tomorrow, a successor would have no incentive to reverse course. Brown agrees: the islands were not returned during the Soviet collapse or the economic chaos that followed, and there is no reason to believe any future Russian leader would entertain the idea.

For Japan, the window for resolving this dispute has effectively closed. Putin's visit to Iturup was not a negotiating overture. It was a statement of possession, a reminder that Russia holds the territory and intends to keep it, and a signal that Japan's support for Ukraine comes with a cost. Tokyo has few levers to pull and limited room to maneuver. The islands remain in Russian hands, and barring a seismic shift in Russian politics or a fundamental change in the global order, they are likely to stay there.