Protein trend threatens to drive up infant formula costs, experts warn

A fitness trend and a class of weight-loss drugs are quietly reshaping the market for infant formula, and the people most likely to suffer are families who can least afford it. The culprit is whey protein, the ingredient that makes modern baby formula resemble human breast milk. Over the past year, demand for whey protein has exploded—driven partly by "proteinmaxxing," a movement among health-conscious consumers to maximize protein intake, and partly by the surge in GLP-1 medications like Ozempic, which suppress appetite and push users to seek concentrated protein sources to preserve muscle while losing weight. The result is a supply crunch that has sent prices spiraling.

In July 2025, whey protein concentrate—the 80% pure version used in infant formula—cost €11,733 per metric tonne. By mid-2026, that same ingredient was trading at €25,875. The price has more than doubled in less than a year. For context, this is not a marginal adjustment in a commodity market. This is a fundamental shift in what manufacturers pay for a core ingredient, and according to industry analysts and nutrition experts, those costs are already beginning to flow through to parents buying formula at the supermarket.

The Office for National Statistics confirms what many families already know: infant formula prices have climbed 4.8% over the past year. A 750-gram box that cost £11.55 twelve months ago now sells for £12.11. That may sound modest until you consider that families relying on formula are often those with the least financial flexibility, and that formula is not optional—it is essential. Dr. Vicky Sibson, director of the First Steps Nutrition Trust, a UK public health charity, frames the stakes plainly: "Whey is a major ingredient in infant formula, so significant increases in its price risk increasing the price of formula itself." She notes that a Competition and Markets Authority investigation found manufacturers routinely pass input cost increases directly to consumers, a pattern that held even during the recent cost-of-living crisis.

What makes this particularly alarming is what families are already doing to cope. Research cited by Sibson shows that many parents are watering down formula feeds—diluting the powder with extra water to stretch supplies further. The practice is not harmless. Diluted formula means babies receive fewer calories and less nutrition than they need, with potential consequences for growth and development. Sibson calls the situation "hugely concerning" and points to evidence that manufacturers are protecting profit margins—the CMA found margins between 50% and 75%—rather than absorbing cost pressures themselves.

Manufacturers are responding to rising whey prices by reformulating products. Many are shifting toward D90 demineralised whey powder, an ingredient with 90% of its minerals removed that helps achieve the correct whey-to-casein ratio while supplying both whey proteins and lactose. As producers make this switch en masse, demand for D90 has spiked, driving its price up as well. Jose Saiz, who tracks the European dairy market for Expana, a market intelligence platform, explains that over the past six months alone, "many manufacturers have reformulated their recipes in response to rising ingredient costs." The reformulations are a short-term fix, but they do not solve the underlying problem: manufacturers themselves are now warning that current whey protein prices are becoming "economically unsustainable" at existing retail levels. Industry insiders believe further consumer price increases are inevitable unless raw material costs decline—something that seems unlikely given the durability of both the proteinmaxxing trend and the popularity of weight-loss medications.

Sibson and other experts are calling for government intervention. She points to precedent in countries like Greece, which have imposed mandatory price or profit caps on infant formula. The argument is straightforward: the market is failing the families who depend on it most, manufacturers are not absorbing costs voluntarily, and the human cost—babies receiving inadequate nutrition because parents cannot afford full-strength formula—justifies regulatory action. Whether policymakers will act before prices climb further remains an open question.