Progressive California Democrat Wahab Wins Special Election Despite Pro-Israel Spending

Aisha Wahab stood on the edge of something larger than a special election. On Thursday, as the votes came in from California's 14th congressional district—a stretch of the southeastern San Francisco Bay Area that had raised her—the projections confirmed what her campaign had wagered: that a progressive state senator could beat back millions in attack advertising and claim a seat in Congress.

Wahab, who had grown up in foster care and built a career championing economic and social justice in the state legislature, defeated her moderate Democratic rival Melissa Hernandez in the race to fill the seat left vacant when U.S. Congressman Eric Swalwell resigned in April following allegations of sexual assault, which he denied. The victory makes Wahab the first Afghan American to serve in the U.S. Congress. In a statement, she framed the win as proof that her district "cannot be bought," a direct reference to the financial onslaught she had weathered in the final weeks of the campaign.

That onslaught was substantial. Starting in early August, pro-Israel groups unleashed a coordinated spending blitz. The United Democracy Project, a super PAC affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, spent nearly $2.5 million to boost Hernandez. BOLD America, another group funded by AIPAC, added another $1.9 million to the effort. The total approached $4.4 million—a sum designed to move the needle in a race where Wahab had dominated the June primary with more than 42 percent of the vote to Hernandez's 17 percent.

The spending tightened the race considerably, but it did not break it. What made the effort noteworthy was not just its scale but its strategy. Some of the advertising steered clear of Israel entirely, instead leveling claims about Wahab's record on sex trafficking. She responded with her own video, pointing out that she had authored legislation making trafficking and solicitation of minors a felony offense, and dismissing the attacks as "$5 million of lies." The indirection suggested that pro-Israel groups understood the political terrain they were navigating: in a district where support for Gaza's Palestinians had become a legitimate political position, direct attacks on that stance might backfire.

Wahab's own record on the issue was clear. Last year, she had co-authored a state resolution condemning what it called the "horrific humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza" and calling for an end to the war. At a candidate forum in April, when asked directly whether the treatment of Palestinians constituted genocide, she answered yes. Hernandez, by contrast, offered a more cautious formulation: Israel had the right to defend itself, but the destruction had gone "too far." The distinction mattered in a political moment when roughly a third of American adults, according to an Associated Press poll from July, believed Israel had committed genocide in Gaza—a position backed by United Nations experts and human rights organizations.

Wahab's victory in the special election is not an isolated event. Across the country in the 2026 midterm season, progressive candidates have been overcoming heavy spending from pro-Israel groups. Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed mounted a similar upset in his primary. The pattern suggests that the pro-Israel lobby's traditional financial advantage, while still formidable, no longer guarantees electoral outcomes the way it once did.

During her time in the state legislature, Wahab had focused on bread-and-butter issues: housing affordability, caste-based discrimination. She authored a bill banning caste discrimination that Governor Gavin Newsom ultimately vetoed. Now she will represent California's 14th district for the remainder of Swalwell's term, which ends in January. But the real contest looms in November, when she and Hernandez will face off again for the chance to hold the seat for a full two-year term. The rematch will test whether Wahab's special election victory was a one-time breakthrough or the beginning of a sustained shift in how progressive candidates fare against the machinery of outside spending.