If Flávio only speaks to his own supporters, he will lose
No laboratório sempre instável das alianças eleitorais brasileiras, Ciro Nogueira, presidente do PP, oferece a Flávio Bolsonaro não apenas um nome — Romeu Zema, governador de Minas Gerais — mas um diagnóstico: sem experiência executiva e sem apelo ao centro, a candidatura corre o risco de repetir os erros de 2022. A sugestão é menos um gesto de generosidade do que um mapa de sobrevivência política, entregue com a clareza de quem sabe que eleições se ganham nos indecisos, não nos convencidos.
- Flávio Bolsonaro enfrenta uma vulnerabilidade estrutural: nunca governou nada, e seus adversários não deixarão esse vazio sem exploração.
- Ciro Nogueira recusa ser vice e avisa que o apoio formal do PP está condicionado a uma virada estratégica — Flávio precisa falar ao centro, não apenas ao bolsonarismo consolidado.
- A sombra de 2022 paira sobre a conversa: a escolha de Braga Netto no lugar de Tereza Cristina custou votos femininos e, possivelmente, a eleição — e Ciro não quer ver o erro repetido.
- A sugestão de Eduardo Bolsonaro no Itamaraty é lida como sinal de alarme: um movimento que fecha o círculo quando a vitória exige ampliá-lo.
- O Sudeste indeciso é o campo de batalha real; o Nordeste já está decidido, e Tarcísio de Freitas deve ficar em São Paulo — o tabuleiro, segundo Ciro, já está definido.
Ciro Nogueira tem uma proposta para Flávio Bolsonaro: levar Romeu Zema, governador de Minas Gerais, como vice na chapa presidencial de 2026. A lógica é direta. Dois mandatos à frente de um estado complexo deram a Zema um currículo executivo que Flávio simplesmente não possui — e essa lacuna, em uma campanha, vira munição. Zema funcionaria como contrapeso, um perfil pragmático capaz de atrair eleitores que olham para Flávio e veem apenas o sobrenome.
Mas o endosso vem com condições. O PP ainda não está formalmente na coligação, e Ciro foi claro sobre o motivo: o partido quer ver Flávio se mover em direção ao centro, falar com os eleitores esgotados pela polarização entre bolsonarismo e petismo. São esses indecisos do Sudeste, e não a base já convertida, que decidirão a eleição. O Nordeste votará em Lula independentemente da chapa; a disputa real está em outro lugar.
Ciro também descartou a si mesmo como vice — está de olho no Senado pelo Piauí — e aproveitou para invocar 2022 como lição. Jair Bolsonaro errou ao escolher Braga Netto em vez de Tereza Cristina, virando as costas para o eleitorado feminino num momento em que a eleição ainda era disputável. A vice não é enfeite; é estratégia.
O que mais incomodou Ciro foi a sinalização de Flávio sobre Eduardo Bolsonaro no Ministério das Relações Exteriores. Para ele, é o movimento errado: estreita o círculo quando a vitória exige ampliá-lo. Flávio tem uma vantagem real sobre Lula — a juventude, a possibilidade de olhar para frente enquanto o adversário olha para trás. Mas essa vantagem se dissolve se a campanha se tornar um espelho do bolsonarismo de sempre. O apoio do PP, concluiu Ciro, depende de Flávio entender o que a eleição de fato exige.
Ciro Nogueira, president of the Progressive Party, has a suggestion for Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign: pick Romeu Zema, the governor of Minas Gerais, as his running mate. The reasoning is straightforward, if conditional. Zema brings something Flávio lacks—a track record of actually running a state. Two terms as governor of Minas Gerais have given him concrete accomplishments to point to, a managerial profile that could serve as ballast against the criticism that Flávio has never held executive office. In a conversation with O Globo, Ciro laid out his thinking with the precision of someone who has spent years reading electoral maps.
The 2026 election, Ciro believes, will be decided by undecided voters in the Southeast—a region where Zema's two terms and his reputation as a pragmatist could matter. But there is a caveat embedded in the endorsement: Ciro is not yet formally backing Flávio. The party's support hinges on something larger than vice-presidential selection. Flávio needs to reach toward the center, to speak to voters who are exhausted by the polarization between Bolsonarism and Petism, who want something that feels like a break from the old antagonisms. That is where the real election will be won or lost.
Ciro was emphatic about what he will not do. He will not be Flávio's vice. He has already told Bolsonaro that he is running for Senate in Piauí, and he is out of the running mate conversation entirely. But his refusal came wrapped in a warning drawn from recent history. Flávio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, made a costly mistake in 2022 when he chose General Braga Netto as his running mate instead of Senator Tereza Cristina. That choice, Ciro argued, meant turning away from female voters at a moment when the election was still winnable. The vice-presidential slot is not decorative; it is strategic, and it can shift the entire trajectory of a campaign.
The real problem, in Ciro's view, is not the vice selection itself but the broader direction of Flávio's campaign. Recently, Flávio has suggested that if elected, he might appoint his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro as foreign minister. To Ciro, this is a signal in the wrong direction—a move that tightens the circle rather than widening it. If Flávio wants to win, he cannot simply consolidate the bolsonarist base and hope for the best. The Northeast will vote for Lula regardless of who the vice is; that region is not in play. What matters is the center, the voters who are looking for a different kind of politics, one oriented toward modernization and unity rather than the perpetuation of old fights.
Ciro offered a comparison that underscores his point. Flávio has an advantage over Lula that should not be squandered: youth. Lula, in Ciro's assessment, is always looking backward. But if Flávio spends his campaign speaking only to his own supporters, talking about Eduardo at the Foreign Ministry and other moves that reinforce the bolsonarist identity, he will lose. The math is there if he chooses to see it. The undecided voters of the Southeast are the prize, and they are not looking for more of the same polarization.
Ciro stopped short of guaranteeing the PP's support, even as he positioned himself close to the Bolsonaro family. He also made clear that Tarcísio de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo and a member of the Republicanos party, should focus on his own reelection bid rather than entertaining higher ambitions. Flávio's candidacy is, in Ciro's view, irreversible—the decision has been made and will not be unmade. But whether the PP formally backs it depends on whether Flávio understands what the election actually demands.
Notable Quotes
The best vice, in my opinion, would be Zema, because he has accomplishments and experience. I think this election will be decided in the Southeast.— Ciro Nogueira
If Flávio wants to win the election, he will have to speak to the centrist voter. It's not just about intensifying agendas in the Northeast.— Ciro Nogueira
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
Why does Ciro think Zema specifically solves the problem of Flávio's lack of executive experience?
Because Zema has governed Minas Gerais for two terms. He has concrete things to show—roads built, budgets managed, decisions made. When voters ask "what has this person actually done," Zema has an answer. Flávio doesn't.
But Ciro says he's not sure Zema would even help electorally. So what's the point of suggesting him?
The point is that it's the best available option. Zema might not be a vote-getter, but he's a legitimizer. He makes Flávio look less like a political heir and more like someone serious about governance. That matters to centrist voters.
Ciro keeps talking about the center. Why is that the real battleground?
Because the Northeast goes to Lula no matter what. The South is already bolsonarist. The Southeast—that's where the undecided people are. They're tired of the old fight between Bolsonaro and Lula. They want something that feels new.
What does Ciro think Flávio is doing wrong right now?
Talking about putting Eduardo Bolsonaro in the Foreign Ministry. That's a signal that says: we're going to be the same bolsonarist project, just with a different face. It closes doors instead of opening them.
Is Ciro actually going to support Flávio?
Not yet. He's saying the PP will support him if Flávio changes course—if he reaches toward the center instead of consolidating his base. Right now, Flávio is doing the opposite.
What's the 2022 lesson Ciro keeps returning to?
Bolsonaro chose Braga Netto instead of Tereza Cristina. That meant ignoring women voters. He lost. The vice matters because it sends a signal about who you're trying to reach. Choose wrong and you've already lost before the campaign really starts.