In a country where the next election tends to be fought over security and survival rather than foreign diplomacy, a new poll asks a quieter question: did Britain's decision to ban trade in goods from illegal West Bank settlements change how Israelis voted? The answer, drawn from a survey of voters after their recent general election, is almost not at all, though it reveals something more interesting beneath the surface. Israelis largely accept that settlement policy invites international consequences, yet they resist the measures that would reach into their own pockets, and that tension betwee
Poll: Israelis Split Over Settlements Policy as Sanctions Loom, but UK Trade Ban Not Decisive at Polls
In a country where the next election tends to be fought over security and survival rather than foreign diplomacy, a new poll asks a quieter question: did Britain's decision to ban trade in goods from illegal West Bank settlements change how Israelis voted? The answer, drawn from a survey of voters after their recent general election, is almost not at all, though it reveals something more interesting beneath the surface. Israelis largely accept that settlement policy invites international consequences, yet they resist the measures that would reach into their own pockets, and that tension between principle and personal cost may shape where this quarrel goes next.
A survey of Israeli voters, carried out last month by the research group aChord, set out to measure something unusual: how far Britain's tougher stance on illegal West Bank settlements had reached the people who had just gone to the polls. The answer, for the vote itself, was barely at all.
The backdrop is the September decision by Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband to ban trade in settlement goods and impose wider sanctions. Critics had warned it would push Israelis toward Benjamin Netanyahu. The poll does not support that fear. Three-quarters of Netanyahu-bloc supporters said the measures had no bearing on their vote, and whatever small shifts occurred cancelled each other out. Most Israelis, 76%, had heard of the announcement, and four in five of those understood it applied to the West Bank rather than the whole country.
Foreign relations were not what drove people to the ballot box. Among Change-bloc supporters, 60% said relations with the West mattered to them, yet the issue ranked fifth of six motives. The real divide lay in settlement policy itself. Some 71% of Change voters wanted the government to adapt its approach to avoid escalating sanctions, while only 14% of Netanyahu supporters agreed. Across the whole sample, a plurality of 50% favoured adjustment.
Personal cost, however, changed minds. When sanctions were framed as higher interest rates or trouble moving money abroad, support for continuing the policy fell to 36%. Individual sanctions on violent settlers found majority backing, 52%, but 70% of Netanyahu supporters rejected foreign sanctions in any form.
The trade ban remained unpopular, with 63% opposed, many fearing it would eventually reach beyond the settlements. Hannah Weisfeld of the British-Jewish group Yachad argued the findings show Israelis understand that without a change in settlement policy, outside pressure will keep growing, and urged the UK and its allies to keep acting against the occupation. The poll hints that measures touching ordinary Israelis' finances may move opinion further than trade restrictions ever will.
A survey of Israeli voters, carried out last month by the Israeli social research group aChord, has produced an unusual measurement: how much Britain's tougher line on illegal West Bank settlements registered with the people who just voted in a general election. The answer, on the vote itself, is barely at all.
The background is the decision in September by the UK foreign secretary, Ed Miliband, to ban trade in goods from illegal settlements and to impose wider sanctions on them. The move drew fierce criticism, with some arguing it would push Israeli voters into the arms of Benjamin Netanyahu. The poll does not bear that out. Three-quarters of supporters of the bloc backing Netanyahu said UK sanctions and trade-ban policies had no effect on their vote. To the small extent anyone's vote was changed, it moved in both directions, leaving no detectable net effect.
Awareness was high. Just over three-quarters of all respondents, 76%, had heard of the UK announcement, although 18% had caught only the broad headline. Of those who knew of it, four-fifths understood that it applied to the West Bank and not to the whole of Israel. The survey also asked whether Israelis saw the British stance as a response to Israel's actions or as hostility to Israel, even antisemitism.
Foreign relations were not what drove most people to the ballot box. For 60% of supporters of the Change bloc, which backs Gadi Eisenkot, relations with the west were important or very important in deciding their vote, yet they ranked only fifth among six offered motives. Among the Netanyahu bloc, 30% said the same.
The divide opens on policy itself. Some 71% of Change bloc voters said the government should adapt its settlements policy to avoid escalating sanctions. Only 14% of Netanyahu bloc voters agreed, and most said the government should carry on whatever the price. Across the whole sample, a plurality of 50% said settlement and construction policy in the West Bank should be adjusted to avoid sanctions and international isolation. Support for change was strongest among supporters of the Arab parties.
Personal cost appears to matter most. Only 36% of all respondents agreed the settlement policy should continue if sanctions on banks financing construction in illegal settlements meant higher interest rates, trouble transferring money abroad, or problems using credit cards overseas. The poll suggests the more people expect to be hurt personally, the more they oppose the policy.
On individual sanctions, a majority of 52% back them against violent settlers, provided they target only those acting violently. But 70% of Netanyahu bloc supporters oppose foreign sanctions in every circumstance.
The trade ban itself is far less popular. Some 63% of all respondents oppose banning imports of settlement goods, while 26% support it, either outright or if told it would not reach goods from outside the settlements. Many fear the measure would eventually be extended across Israel.
Hannah Weisfeld, director of the British-Jewish organisation Yachad, said the findings show Israelis recognise that without a shift in settlement policy, the international community is likely to create outside incentives for one. She argued this underlines the importance of the UK and other allies acting against the occupation. The poll's own pattern suggests that financial measures touching ordinary Israelis, such as bank-linked sanctions, may move opinion more than trade bans do.
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Politics & Governance