In the weeks after the 2026 midterms, a YouGov poll taken for the risk consultancy Eurasia Group suggests that American voters have grown wary of politicians who backed the US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February and has cost thousands of Iranian lives. Where a candidate's support for the war might once have been a credential, it now more often works as a reason to withhold a vote, and the public's sharpest concerns are the rising price of daily life and the question of who holds the power to end a war. Such moments tend to reveal what a democracy expects of its representatives, and her
Poll Finds Americans Three Times More Likely to Shun Than Back Candidates Who Backed Iran War
The US-Israel war on Iran has killed thousands of people in Iran, according to the report.
A candidate's support for the war put voters off three times more than it won them
Mark
The headline number is 44 percent less likely versus 13 percent more likely. Why does that matter?
Mimi
It's the three-to-one gap. Backing the war cost candidates far more than it earned them, and another 26 percent said it wouldn't change their vote.
Mark
Prices came up too.
Mimi
Fifty-six percent said avoiding higher prices should come before Trump's military goals in Iran. Only 22 percent said the opposite.
Luke
Worth saying who paid for this poll. It was conducted on behalf of Eurasia Group, and the analyst interpreting it, Jonathan Guyer, works there.
Mark
Fair. And the war powers question?
Mimi
Fifty-three percent want Congress to decide when the war ends; 29 percent want the president. Trump launched the war without congressional authorisation, which raised constitutional concerns.
Luke
But the poll shows preference, not cause. It doesn't prove the war drove Republican losses. Prices are also in the mix, and the article doesn't separate them.
Mark
What about Republicans themselves?
Mimi
They were the only group more favourable to pro-war candidates, yet Guyer says about a third found it appealing and 40 percent shrugged.
Luke
Those are his figures as relayed. The sample size and margin of error aren't given here, so I'd hold the precision loosely.
Mark
And 2028?
Mimi
Guyer expects foreign policy and support for Israel to be a dividing line. That's his forecast, not a result.
El Pulso
- Forty-four percent of voters say they are less likely to back a candidate who supported the Iran war, while only thirteen percent say they are more likely.
- Surging prices, which the war has helped drive, now outweigh Trump's military goals for most Americans, with fifty-six percent putting cost-of-living first.
- A majority of fifty-three percent insists Congress, not the president, should decide when the fighting ends, sharpening a constitutional dispute over an unauthorised war.
- Republicans are split as Vance, Carlson and Greene turn against the war, while Democrats face pressure from voters who want firmer action to rein in the president.
- Analysts expect Israel policy and the war to become a central dividing line, with the 2028 presidential race likely to test whether the anti-war mood endures.
In the weeks after the 2026 midterms, a YouGov poll taken for the risk consultancy Eurasia Group suggests that American voters have grown wary of politicians who backed the US-Israel war on Iran, which began in February and has cost thousands of Iranian lives. Where a candidate's support for the war might once have been a credential, it now more often works as a reason to withhold a vote, and the public's sharpest concerns are the rising price of daily life and the question of who holds the power to end a war. Such moments tend to reveal what a democracy expects of its representatives, and here the expectation seems to be that Congress should once again act as a check on the executive. Whether that expectation hardens into lasting political habit, or fades as the fighting recedes from view, will shape the contests still to come, not least the presidential race of 2028.
A YouGov poll completed on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections found that Americans were far more likely to turn away from candidates who backed the US-Israel war on Iran than to rally behind them. Forty-four percent said they were less likely to support such a candidate, while only thirteen percent said they were more likely. Another quarter said the war would make little difference to their vote.
Money sits close to the centre of this unease. Fifty-six percent said avoiding higher domestic prices matters more than achieving Trump's military goals in Iran, and rising costs, which the war has contributed to, were a leading issue in the November elections. Asked who should decide when the fighting ends, 53 percent said Congress, against 29 percent who named the president. The war, launched by the US and Israel on February 28 without congressional authorisation, has killed thousands of people in Iran.
The results fit a larger story. Republicans suffered a major defeat, Democrats regained both chambers of Congress, and Texas offices once considered safe for conservatives changed hands. Inside both parties the war has become a source of argument, with Vice President JD Vance blaming the party's losses on it and commentators such as Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene calling it a betrayal of Trump's promise to end foreign conflicts.
Jonathan Guyer of Eurasia Group expects foreign policy, and especially American support for Israel, to become a defining line in future campaigns, particularly in 2028. Whether voters' hesitation becomes a lasting judgement on the war or fades with time remains an open question.
A YouGov poll completed on the eve of the 2026 midterm elections, and released on Monday, found that Americans were far more likely to turn away from candidates who backed the US-Israel war on Iran than to rally to them. Forty-four percent of respondents said they were less likely to support a candidate who backed the war. Just 13 percent said they were more likely. That works out to a candidate's support for the war being more than three times as likely to put voters off as to win them over. Another 26 percent said the war would not make much difference to their vote.
Money was part of the picture. Fifty-six percent of those surveyed said the United States should put avoiding higher domestic prices ahead of achieving President Donald Trump's military goals in Iran. Twenty-two percent said the reverse, that the administration should prioritise the war over higher costs. Surging prices, which the war has contributed to, were a top issue in the November 3 midterms.
The poll also asked who should decide when the war ends. A majority, 53 percent, said Congress should have the final say, while 29 percent said the president should. The US and Israel jointly launched the war on February 28, and Trump's decision to proceed without congressional authorisation has raised constitutional concerns. The war has killed thousands of people in Iran.
Jonathan Guyer, programme director at the Institute for Global Affairs at Eurasia Group, the risk consultancy on whose behalf the poll was conducted, told Al Jazeera the results show Americans want a more assertive Congress. He pointed to the economic tradeoff as one important story, and to Congress's record as another: why lawmakers, over the last year and the last decade, have not played a bigger role as a backstop on reckless wars launched by presidents. The numbers, he said, show the public wants Congress to hold power to account.
The election results fit that picture. Trump's Republican Party suffered one of the most significant electoral setbacks in modern US history, with Democrats reclaiming both chambers of Congress by strong margins. They also flipped key offices in states such as Texas, once seen as a conservative stronghold. The results have sharpened a debate over the war inside both parties, often setting hawkish establishment figures against newcomers who oppose foreign intervention and support for Israel. Analysts argue Democratic voters may now expect their leadership to take firmer steps to rein in the president and end the fighting.
On Monday, Trump said that "Iran militarily is effectively over," though he declined to rule out further military action. A US naval and land blockade around Iran remains in effect.
Guyer expects foreign policy, and US support for Israel in particular, to become a key dividing line in future races, especially the 2028 presidential election. He said this opens a lane for figures such as Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed and the wing of the Democratic Party represented by New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who hold strong positions on the war and America's role in the world that traditional Democrats have largely been silent on.
The argument is also playing out on the right. After the midterms, Vice President JD Vance shared a lengthy social media post blaming his party's implosion on the war. Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene have criticised it as a betrayal of Trump's promise to end conflicts abroad. Republicans were the only group in the poll more likely to back a candidate who supported the war, but Guyer says that support is softening: about a third called it appealing, and 40 percent shrugged and said it made no difference.
Citas Notables
The public really wants Congress to play a bigger role and expects lawmakers to hold power to account.— Jonathan Guyer, Eurasia Group
Iran militarily is effectively over.— President Donald Trump, on Monday
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