On the 87th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed parliament not with historical mourning but with forward-facing alarm: Russian intelligence, he said, points to a deliberate campaign of hybrid strikes—drones and missiles disguised as accidents—aimed at fracturing NATO's collective will from within. The threat is not conquest but corrosion, a patient strategy to make Article 5 feel like a promise no one intends to keep. As Ukraine endures escalating bombardment and winter approaches, the eastern flank of the alliance faces a test designed less to de
Poland warns of Russian 'hybrid strikes' on NATO allies as Tusk calls winter 'critical moment'
We are not seeking war, but if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response.
Mark
So Tusk is saying Russia will deliberately send drones and missiles into NATO territory, but claim they're accidents. That's the strategy?
Mimi
That's what the intelligence suggests, yes. The idea is to create a pattern of incidents that are technically deniable—no formal declaration of war, just accidents—but that test whether NATO will actually respond as a unified alliance.
Luke
But here's the thing: Tusk didn't name which intelligence agencies told him this. He said it was "very consistent and convincing," but we don't know if that's Polish intelligence, CIA, NATO, or some combination. That matters for how confident we should be.
Mark
Why would Russia do that instead of just attacking directly?
Mimi
Because a direct attack triggers Article 5 automatically—all of NATO responds. But if you can make it look accidental, you create ambiguity. Some NATO members might hesitate. You're testing whether the alliance will hold.
Luke
And Tusk's worried that some Western politicians are already looking for reasons not to invoke Article 5. He mentioned parties "gaining in strength" but didn't name them. That's a real concern, but it's also vague.
Mark
He talked about winter being critical. Why winter specifically?
Mimi
Russia's escalating drone attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure—power plants, railways, warehouses. Winter makes that worse. Ukraine will be under maximum pressure. And Tusk thinks that's when Russia will also test NATO's eastern flank, betting the alliance is distracted or divided.
Luke
The timeline matters too. Tusk said Russia won't negotiate "at least until the end of winter." So we're looking at months of this. But again, that's his assessment. We don't have independent confirmation of Russia's actual intentions.
Mark
What about Poland's own defenses? He mentioned spending 5 percent of GDP on defense.
Mimi
Poland is genuinely one of the most militarized countries in Europe now. They've got 44 billion euros from the EU defense fund—more than any other member. They're building a serious army.
Luke
But Tusk's point was that even that isn't enough if NATO doesn't hold. If Article 5 becomes theoretical instead of practical, Poland's strength alone doesn't protect it. That's the real fear underneath all this.
Der Puls
- Polish intelligence, described as 'very consistent and convincing,' assesses that Russia will deliberately fire drones and missiles into NATO territory while claiming each incident is accidental—engineering ambiguity to paralyze the alliance's response.
- The coming autumn and winter are framed as the most dangerous window yet, with Russia intensifying strikes on six Ukrainian cities, destroying warehouses and rail infrastructure in a bid to collapse Ukraine's economy before the cold sets in.
- Moscow's deeper target is psychological: to demonstrate that Article 5 is theoretical rather than operational, and to embolden political forces in Western Europe already searching for reasons not to defend Poland, Latvia, or Lithuania.
- Tusk called for absolute parliamentary unity on border and airspace decisions, warning that opposition rhetoric hostile to the EU, to allies, or to Ukrainians is not dissent—it is the execution of Russia's strategy.
- Poland is spending nearly 5 percent of GDP on defense and secured more EU defense funding than any other member state, but Tusk insisted that military strength alone cannot substitute for national and allied resolve.
On the 87th anniversary of the Soviet invasion of Poland, Prime Minister Donald Tusk addressed parliament not with historical mourning but with forward-facing alarm: Russian intelligence, he said, points to a deliberate campaign of hybrid strikes—drones and missiles disguised as accidents—aimed at fracturing NATO's collective will from within. The threat is not conquest but corrosion, a patient strategy to make Article 5 feel like a promise no one intends to keep. As Ukraine endures escalating bombardment and winter approaches, the eastern flank of the alliance faces a test designed less to destroy than to divide.
Donald Tusk chose the 87th anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion to deliver a warning that carried the weight of settled intelligence rather than speculation. Standing before the Polish parliament, he said Russia is planning hybrid strikes—drones, missiles, weapons of deniable origin—against NATO countries on the eastern flank that support Ukraine. When those projectiles cross borders and cause damage, Moscow will call them accidents. The goal is not to seize territory but to erode confidence: to test whether NATO will invoke Article 5 over something that can be framed as an incident, and to convince member states that the alliance's mutual defense guarantee is more rhetorical than real.
Tusk was precise about the timeline. Autumn and winter, he said, will be the most critical period of Russia's full-scale aggression. Ukraine is already absorbing strikes of extraordinary frequency—six major cities targeted, logistics networks damaged, warehouses destroyed. Russia believes this winter will bring Ukraine to a point of dire crisis, and that conviction, Tusk argued, is what will drive the provocations against NATO's eastern members. Few countries are yet equipped to counter the jet-powered drones Russia is deploying at scale.
The stakes for Poland were stated plainly. A drone or projectile could land on Polish soil, cause real damage, and be officially dismissed as an accident—leaving NATO with no clear trigger for response. Tusk acknowledged that some political forces gaining influence across Europe are already looking for exactly that kind of excuse: we won't die for Poland; we won't die for Latvia or Lithuania. His answer was to demand unity without exception. Poland has committed nearly 5 percent of GDP to defense, secured more from the EU's defense fund than any other member state, and is building one of the continent's strongest armies. But he warned that military capacity means little without political cohesion—and that stoking hostility toward the EU, toward allies, or toward Ukrainians is not opposition politics. It is Russia's strategy, executed from within.
The intelligence informing Tusk's address was not attributed to specific agencies, though Poland's security services chief had met with CIA director John Ratcliffe days earlier. What Tusk made clear was that Russia sees no reason to pursue serious negotiations before winter's end—and that the provocations ahead will be designed not to start a war, but to prove that the alliance meant to prevent one cannot hold together when tested.
Donald Tusk stood before the Polish parliament on a day marked by historical weight—the 87th anniversary of the 1939 Soviet invasion—and delivered a warning that felt less like speculation than settled intelligence. Russia, he said, is planning hybrid strikes using drones and missiles against countries that support Ukraine, including Poland. The assessment came from intelligence agencies he did not name, but described as "very consistent and convincing."
The threat, as Tusk outlined it, operates on a logic of deniability. Russian projectiles—drones, missiles, other weapons—will likely cross into NATO territory on the eastern flank. Some may cause damage. And when they do, Moscow will claim accident. The goal is not conquest but corrosion: to test whether NATO members will actually invoke Article 5, the alliance's collective defense clause, over what can be framed as an incident rather than an act of war. Tusk warned that Russia expects to use these recurring provocations to paint NATO as helpless, to convince member states that the alliance's mutual defense guarantee is "more theoretical than practical," and to plant doubt about whether anyone will truly die for Latvia or Lithuania.
Tusk's language was direct about what he saw coming. The autumn and winter ahead would be "the most critical moment" in Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine. Russia is increasing attacks using jet-powered drones, weapons few countries are yet equipped to counter effectively. Ukraine faces constant strikes of high frequency and intensity—six major cities targeted, warehouses destroyed, railway infrastructure damaged. Russia's objective is to destroy Ukraine's economy and logistics on the largest possible scale. And as that pressure mounts on Kyiv, Tusk suggested, Moscow will test NATO's resolve in defending its own eastern members.
He was explicit about the stakes for Poland itself. "There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank, and could even cause damage, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any response from NATO." The aim, he said, is to weaken NATO's integrity and convince member states that the alliance's core commitment is hollow. Poland, as a border country, would likely need allied loyalty under Article 5 more than Portugal or Ireland. Yet Tusk acknowledged that not all Western politicians are eager to prove they will come to Poland's aid. Some political forces, "currently gaining in strength and influence in European countries," are simply looking for an excuse: we won't die for Poland; we won't die for Latvia or Lithuania.
Tusk's response was to call for absolute unity at home. Poland has spent nearly 5 percent of its GDP on defense—almost twice Germany's share, twice France's. It is building one of Europe's strongest armies and secured 44 billion euros from the EU's defense fund, more than any other member state. Polish borders are the best marked on the continent. But even the largest army is not enough, he said, if the nation is not ready. He appealed to parliament without exception: wherever the issue concerns Poland's borders, airspace, or the safety of homes, they must speak with one voice, take joint decisions, not hesitate. The nation will hold them all accountable.
He also warned opposition parties that inciting hostility toward the European Union, toward allies, toward Ukrainians is simply implementing Russia's strategy. And he ended with a pledge: "We are not seeking war, but if anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies."
The intelligence behind Tusk's warning came from somewhere. Poland's security services minister, Tomasz Siemoniak, met with CIA director John Ratcliffe the previous week, days after a much-discussed trip to Russia. Poland's defense minister, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, was planning to travel to the United States for urgent talks with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Poland has a history of citing its own intelligence agencies in response to security incidents—airspace provocations, arrests of suspected Russian saboteurs. But Tusk did not specify which agencies had produced this assessment or how recent the intelligence was. What he did say was that Russia is not prepared or willing to engage in serious discussions about ending its aggression against Ukraine "at least until the end of winter." Moscow is convinced this winter will be a time of dire crisis for Ukraine. That conviction, Tusk suggested, is what will drive the provocations ahead.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
There is a real risk that drones or other types of projectiles could be launched into the territory of one or more NATO countries on the eastern flank, and could even cause damage, and the official narrative will be that this is an accident.— Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister
Russia is convinced that this winter will be a time of dire crisis for Ukraine and is not prepared to engage in serious discussions about ending its aggression at least until the end of winter.— Donald Tusk, Polish Prime Minister
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