They take the money and vote PT anyway—that's just how it works here
Fonteles claims Piauí voters prioritize PT loyalty over federal aid, with the state giving Lula 74% support in the first round and the governor winning with 57%. The governor criticizes the federal government's ICMS fuel tax reduction, claiming it cost Piauí over R$100 million monthly and represents a major breach of federative agreements.
- Piauí gave Lula 74% support in the first round, the strongest proportional victory for the PT candidate in the country
- The federal ICMS fuel tax cut cost Piauí over R$100 million monthly, more than 10% of the state budget
- Fonteles won his gubernatorial race with 57% in the first round and projects 80,000 jobs created over four years
Piauí's newly elected PT governor Rafael Fonteles predicts Lula will exceed 80% support in his state, arguing that federal assistance programs won't sway voters away from the PT despite fiscal pressures on state budgets.
Rafael Fonteles sat down days before the second round of Brazil's 2022 presidential election confident in what he was seeing on the ground in Piauí. The newly elected governor of the state—who had just won his own race with 57 percent of the vote in the first round—believed his region would deliver even stronger numbers for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva than it already had. Piauí had given Lula 74 percent support in the initial voting, the strongest proportional victory for the PT candidate anywhere in the country. Now, heading into the runoff against Jair Bolsonaro, Fonteles expected that margin to climb past 80 percent.
At 37, Fonteles represented a new generation of PT leadership, and he spoke with the clarity of someone who understood his state's political texture. The federal government had been trying to shore up its popularity through spending—raising the Auxílio Brasil cash transfer to 600 reais and creating a new form of consigned credit worth 2,000 reais. Fonteles dismissed the strategy outright. "Here people take the 600 reais, they take the 2,000 reais, and they vote 13," he said, using the PT's ballot number. The implication was stark: money alone would not move Piauí voters away from the left.
But Fonteles's confidence rested on something deeper than electoral arithmetic. He had spent seven years as secretary of finance under Wellington Dias, the outgoing governor who had just been elected to the Senate and was being discussed as a possible minister in a Lula government. That experience had given Fonteles a clear view of what was breaking the relationship between the states and the federal government. The Bolsonaro administration had slashed the ICMS tax on fuel without consulting the governors—a move that cost Piauí alone more than 100 million reais each month, eroding more than 10 percent of the state's budget. "It was the biggest breach of the federative pact this country has ever seen," Fonteles said. The damage went beyond money. It signaled that the federal government would not honor the agreements that held the system together.
Fonteles believed a Lula government would reverse course. Tax reform had stalled under Bolsonaro. The federative pact needed renegotiation. These were not abstract concerns—they were the foundation of state governance, and Piauí had been hollowed out by federal decisions made without regard for the consequences. Fonteles saw Lula's victory as essential to restoring that balance.
The governor's own ambitions for Piauí were substantial. He projected creating 80,000 jobs over the next four years—a historic figure for the state. He wanted to move Piauí up the national education rankings, currently sitting in ninth place, and to invest heavily in digitizing state government services. These were not modest goals, and they depended on having a federal government willing to work with the states rather than against them.
During the campaign, Fonteles had faced pressure from Ciro Nogueira, the federal minister of civil affairs, who had thrown his weight behind Fonteles's opponent, Silvio Mendes. Nogueira had worked hard for his candidate, though notably not by tying him to Bolsonaro—a choice Fonteles found telling. "The minister is called an illusionist here because he made a big effort to elect his candidate, but not to elect the president," Fonteles observed. The implication was that even within the government coalition, there was a recognition that Bolsonaro was a liability in Piauí.
Fonteles also expressed hope that Wellington Dias would join a Lula cabinet. Having a senator from Piauí in the federal government would be valuable; having a minister would be better still. It was a way of saying that Piauí's interests needed representation at the highest levels, that the state had been neglected and needed someone inside the room where decisions were made. The election, from Fonteles's perspective, was not just about choosing a president. It was about whether the federal system itself would function fairly, whether states would have a voice, and whether the agreements that bound the country together would be honored.
Notable Quotes
Here people take the 600 reais, they take the 2,000 reais, and they vote 13— Rafael Fonteles, governor-elect of Piauí
It was the biggest breach of the federative pact this country has ever seen— Rafael Fonteles, on the federal fuel tax reduction
The Hearth Conversation Another angle on the story
You're saying voters in Piauí will take federal money and vote PT anyway. That seems to contradict how most political scientists think about cash transfers and voting behavior.
It does, but Piauí is different. The state has been voting PT for years. This isn't about converting swing voters with money—it's about a baseline loyalty that runs deeper than a monthly payment. The federal aid is welcome, but it doesn't change the fundamental relationship.
So what does change it? What would make Piauí voters abandon the PT?
Probably the same thing that would move any region: if the PT stopped delivering on the things that matter structurally. Tax reform. A functioning federative pact. Jobs. The money is nice, but it's not the foundation.
You mention the ICMS fuel tax cut as a betrayal. But wasn't that popular with consumers?
It was popular with people buying gas. But it cost Piauí over 100 million reais a month—more than 10 percent of the state budget. That money has to come from somewhere. Schools, roads, health. The federal government made a choice to help consumers at the expense of state governments, and states like Piauí paid the price.
Fonteles is betting heavily on Lula delivering tax reform and federative renegotiation. What if Lula wins but doesn't deliver on those things?
Then Fonteles will have a problem. He's staking his governorship on the idea that a PT president will prioritize state interests. If that doesn't happen, the loyalty he's describing might not survive a second term.
Is Wellington Dias becoming a minister important to that calculation?
Very. It means Piauí has someone inside the room. It means the state isn't just hoping the federal government will listen—it has a voice at the table. That matters for everything Fonteles is promising: the 80,000 jobs, the education rankings, the digital government.