A defence chief has warned that the Philippines may be unable to enlist any new soldiers next year, and that warning sits uneasily beside a government that has promised, in large numbers and firm language, to rebuild its armed forces. The ambition is a 1.9 trillion peso plan running to 2034, meant to let the country project power across waters it claims in the South China Sea. Whether words about sovereignty can be turned into ships, aircraft and people depends on money that has not yet been shown on paper, and that gap is where the question now rests.
Philippine Military 'Massively Underfunded' as Defence Chief Warns of No Recruits Next Year
There could be no military recruits next year
A defence chief has warned that the Philippines may be unable to enlist any new soldiers next year, and that warning sits uneasily beside a government that has promised, in large numbers and firm language, to rebuild its armed forces. The ambition is a 1.9 trillion peso plan running to 2034, meant to let the country project power across waters it claims in the South China Sea. Whether words about sovereignty can be turned into ships, aircraft and people depends on money that has not yet been shown on paper, and that gap is where the question now rests.
Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr has issued a blunt warning: because of budget cuts, the Philippine military may take on no new recruits next year. It is an uncomfortable message for a government that has spent two years promising a more capable armed force.
The ambition carries a price tag. In 2024 President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr approved a revised plan of 1.9 trillion pesos, roughly US$30 billion, to acquire newer assets through 2034. The aim is to let the military project power into parts of the South China Sea that Manila regards as its own, in line with its focus on archipelagic defence. In July, Marcos vowed in his State of the Nation Address to do all necessary to uphold the 2016 arbitral award that rejected China's nine-dash line.
Critics say the rhetoric outruns the funding. Analyst Manuel Mogato called the pledge lip service, arguing the president promised to prioritise modernisation but provided no money for new hardware next year. By his estimate, the military would need at least 100 billion pesos a year to finish modernising by 2034. That is his own assessment, not an official target, and the details of next year's allocation and the cuts remain unclear.
The two warnings address different halves of the same problem: Teodoro worries about people, Mogato about ships and aircraft. Both shape whether the military can act on the government's stated intentions. The answer will come with the next budget figures for modernisation and recruitment.
Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jnr has delivered a blunt warning about the state of the Philippine armed forces: because of budget cuts, there could be no military recruits next year. The caution lands at an awkward moment for a government that has spent the past two years promising to build a more capable military.
The promise has a number attached. In 2024, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr approved a revised plan worth 1.9 trillion Philippine pesos, about US$30 billion, to acquire newer military assets through 2034. The programme is meant to strengthen the military's ability to project power into the parts of the South China Sea that Manila considers its territory, and it fits the country's emphasis on archipelagic defence.
The political language around that effort has been firm. In his State of the Nation Address in July, Marcos said he would do all that is necessary to continue upholding the 2016 arbitral award. That ruling, issued by a tribunal in The Hague, negated China's nine-dash line, which overlaps with the Philippines' claims in the contested waterway.
The gap between that rhetoric and the budget is what has drawn criticism. Manuel Mogato, a defence and security analyst, described Marcos's pledge as mere lip service. In his reading, the president promised to prioritise modernisation but did not provide money for new military hardware for next year.
Mogato also put a figure on what he believes is needed. By his estimate, the yearly budget should be at least 100 billion pesos if the military is to complete its modernisation by 2034. That is his assessment of the requirement rather than an official target, and the reporting here does not detail what next year's allocation actually contains or how the cuts break down.
The two warnings point at different parts of the same problem. Teodoro's concerns about recruitment concern people: whether the armed forces can bring in new personnel at all. Mogato's concerns hardware: whether the ships, aircraft and other assets envisioned in the 1.9 trillion peso plan will be paid for on schedule. Both bear on whether the military can do what the government says it intends in the South China Sea.
What to watch is the allocation itself. The next budget figures for modernisation and recruitment will show whether the defence secretary's warning proves accurate, and whether the 2034 timeline remains realistic.
Citações Notáveis
Marcos promised to prioritise modernisation but gave no money for new military hardware for next year.— Manuel Mogato, defence and security analyst
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Leia o original em South China Morning Post ↗
War & Conflict