In the cold early days of November, Alaska's Senate race sits in the quiet suspense of counting, where a former congresswoman, Mary Peltola, holds a narrow lead over the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. The slow arithmetic is not a sign of chaos but of a state that gives every mailed ballot its time and, when no one reaches a majority, lets voters' second choices decide. It is a moment that reflects a broader national mood, where frustration over prices and a fractured political climate are reshaping familiar contests. If the lead holds, it would mark a historic first for Alaska Natives in t
Peltola Widens Lead Over Sullivan as Alaska's Uncalled Senate Race Heads Toward Ranked-Choice Count
The only Senate contest in the country still uncalled
Mark
Why is this one race still open when everything else has been called?
Mimi
Two reasons. Alaska gives mail ballots time to arrive and be counted, and it uses ranked-choice voting, which adds a tabulation if nobody gets a majority.
Mark
Peltola is at 49.8 percent. That's so close to 50.
Mimi
It is, and she leads by nearly four points. If she crosses 50 as more ballots come in, no ranked-choice round is needed.
Luke
Worth noting those results are incomplete. The Times says she's on track to win, but that's an analysis, not a call.
Mark
What's the story with the two minor candidates?
Mimi
Democrats recruited Gerald Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan to dilute the senator's vote. Dan J. Sullivan has a name close to the incumbent's. Together they have about 4 percent.
Luke
And the plan's effect is uneven. The Times found that among Dan J. Sullivan's first-choice voters, more picked Peltola second than the senator. That's a finding from one analysis of a partial count, so I'd hold it loosely.
Mark
What does the Sullivan campaign say?
Mimi
Spokesman Nate Adams said they're waiting for every ballot to be counted.
Luke
Which isn't a concession, but it also isn't a claim of a path. We don't know what the remaining ballots look like beyond what the Times analysis suggests.
Der Puls
- Peltola stands at 49.8 percent, just short of the majority that would end the wait and separate her from her rival.
- Alaska's mail-ballot window and ranked-choice rules have stretched the count, leaving the race uncalled while every vote is still tallied.
- Two minor candidates, one a Republican and one bearing a near-identical name to the senator, have quietly drawn about 4 percent, reshaping the math.
- Sullivan's camp refuses to concede, insisting it will wait for every ballot and see what the next round of counting brings.
- Analysts expect the ranked-choice tabulation next week to decide the outcome, and the trajectory points toward a Peltola victory.
In the cold early days of November, Alaska's Senate race sits in the quiet suspense of counting, where a former congresswoman, Mary Peltola, holds a narrow lead over the incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. The slow arithmetic is not a sign of chaos but of a state that gives every mailed ballot its time and, when no one reaches a majority, lets voters' second choices decide. It is a moment that reflects a broader national mood, where frustration over prices and a fractured political climate are reshaping familiar contests. If the lead holds, it would mark a historic first for Alaska Natives in the Senate and a notable turn in a state that has slowly been drifting from its former certainties.
On Friday night, Alaska released another batch of votes, and Mary Peltola, the Democrat and former congresswoman, stood at 49.8 percent. She was nearly four points ahead of Senator Dan Sullivan, the two-term Republican incumbent, in results that are still incomplete. It is the only Senate race in the country still uncalled.
The New York Times analysis suggests she is on track to prevail, though she sits just short of a majority. If no one clears 50 percent, Alaska's ranked-choice system will run next week: the last-place candidate is eliminated, and those voters' next choices are redistributed until two remain. Democrats had recruited two minor candidates, a Republican and a man named Dan J. Sullivan, to split the senator's support, and among voters who ranked that second Sullivan first, more chose Peltola next than the incumbent.
Sullivan's spokesman said the campaign is waiting for every ballot to be counted. The wider backdrop favors Democrats, who have won 55 Senate seats amid voter anger over high prices. Peltola, a centrist who campaigned on "fish, family and freedom," would be Alaska's first Native American senator and the first Democrat elected from the state in nearly two decades.
On Friday night, Alaska released its latest batch of votes, and Mary Peltola, the Democrat and former congresswoman, stood at 49.8 percent. That put her ahead of Senator Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican two-term incumbent, by nearly four percentage points in results that remain incomplete. The race was still uncalled, the only Senate contest in the country in that position.
The New York Times analysis says Ms. Peltola is on track to eventually prevail. Because she sits just short of a majority in the first-choice count, the outcome may turn on Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation, which would be run next week if neither candidate clears 50 percent outright.
Two things account for the wait. Alaska allows time for mail ballots to be received and counted, and the state uses a ranked-choice system that adds a step when no one wins a majority. Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If nobody tops 50 percent of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those voters' second choices are redistributed. That repeats until two candidates remain, and the one with more votes wins.
Four candidates were on the ballot after a nonpartisan primary in August. Besides Ms. Peltola and Mr. Sullivan, there were Gerald L. Heikes, a Republican, and Dan J. Sullivan, an unaffiliated candidate whose name closely resembles the senator's. Together, Mr. Heikes and Dan J. Sullivan have taken about 4 percent so far.
Democrats had recruited both men onto the ballot to dilute Senator Sullivan's vote share. The Times analysis found that among voters who ranked Dan J. Sullivan first, more chose Ms. Peltola as their second choice than chose the senator.
The senator's camp is not conceding. After Friday night's release, his spokesman, Nate Adams, said they were still waiting for every ballot to be counted and would see what happens from there.
The broader backdrop favors Democrats. Riding voter frustration over high prices in President Trump's second term, the party has won 55 Senate seats in the midterms, the largest majority held by either party since Barack Obama's first term. Mr. Trump's war in Iran and his tariff fight with Canada hurt Alaska, where gasoline prices were especially high. Mr. Sullivan chose to campaign alongside the president despite his poor approval ratings, hoping to energize conservative Republicans. Mr. Trump carried Alaska by about 14 points in 2024, though the state has drifted gradually left in presidential elections over the past quarter-century.
Ms. Peltola, a centrist whose slogan was "fish, family and freedom," would be the first Alaska Native elected to the Senate and the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alaska in nearly two decades. Her win would lift Democrats to 56 seats, more than the party has captured in any election since Mr. Obama won the presidency in 2008. The ranked-choice count next week, if needed, should settle it.
Bemerkenswerte Zitate
We're still waiting for every ballot to be counted. And we'll see what happens from there.— Nate Adams, spokesman for Senator Dan S. Sullivan
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