Pakistan holds fire as Houthis tighten grip on Red Sea chokepoint

The Houthis have taken the Red Sea port city of Mocha and are tightening their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most critical shipping passages. The strait, which sits between Yemen and the African coast of Djibouti and Eritrea, has earned its grim nickname—the Gate of Tears—for the treacherous waters that make navigation perilous. For the Iran-backed militia, control of this chokepoint represents a major strategic prize, one that threatens to disrupt global commerce and reshape the balance of power in the Middle East.

The escalation has been swift and violent. Over the past week, fighting across Yemen has spilled beyond the country's borders into Saudi Arabia, where Houthi attacks have targeted oil installations and military facilities. On Tuesday alone, the group struck an airbase in Khamis Mushait and oil infrastructure in nearby cities, wounding 73 people in what officials described as one of the largest attacks on the kingdom since the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began in February. Meanwhile, Yemen's internationally recognised government has accused the Houthis of an artillery attack that killed three children, adding to the mounting toll of civilian casualties.

Pakistan's response has been measured but pointed. On Thursday, Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan stated that while no military action was currently under discussion, Pakistan would act when circumstances demanded it. This carefully worded position reflects the weight of the Makkah agreement, a joint defence pact signed last month between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Under its terms, an armed attack on any one of the three nations is considered an attack on all of them. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif underscored the seriousness of this commitment, telling Pakistani television that unprovoked aggression or spillover into Saudi territory would make the agreement operational. "There is no ambiguity or doubt," he said.

Behind the scenes, Pakistan has been more forceful. According to regional sources, Islamabad conveyed a direct warning to Iran over the past 24 hours, urging Tehran to rein in its Houthi allies before the crisis spirals into a broader regional conflict. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that Pakistan delivered this message on Tuesday. Tehran's response was blunt: Iran does not control the Houthis. Yet Iranian sources told a different story, claiming that Tehran had instructed the Houthis to carry out attacks on Saudi Arabia and had promised additional funding and weapons. Several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders had travelled to Yemen to help coordinate the strikes, they said.

The diplomatic calculus is delicate. Pakistan has spent years balancing its relationships with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, and this warning represents a significant shift in tone. A senior regional diplomat told Reuters that Islamabad was attempting to restrain the Houthis before escalation reached a point where Saudi Arabia could demand more active Pakistani involvement. "Pakistan has an agreement with Saudi Arabia, but I am hopeful the situation will not reach the point where Pakistan has to practically step in," the diplomat said. "It will pursue a diplomatic solution for now."

Yet the military machinery is being readied. Saudi officials have met with senior Pakistani and Turkish military representatives in Riyadh to coordinate their response. The three countries have agreed that their troops will not enter Yemen and that any response would be launched from Saudi territory. Pakistani sources stressed that their military pact with Riyadh is defensive and limited to protecting Saudi territory—Pakistani forces could provide military, technical, ground, or air support within Saudi Arabia, but would not take part in combat operations on foreign soil.

Iran has rejected accusations that it controls the Houthis. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated that the group acts independently and takes orders from no one, accusing the United States of driving regional instability through its military presence and hegemonistic policies. He called on Washington to withdraw its military involvement if it genuinely sought peace in the region. The irony is sharp: by targeting Gulf security in an attempt to pressure Washington over its blockade of Iranian ports, Tehran risks achieving the opposite of its intended effect, driving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey, and other US-aligned states into closer security coordination rather than fracturing their ties.

What happens next depends on whether Pakistan's warning to Iran takes hold. If the Houthis continue their attacks and the situation escalates further, the Makkah agreement could transform from a theoretical commitment into an active military alliance, pulling Pakistan into a conflict it has so far managed to observe from the margins. For now, Islamabad is holding fire, but the window for diplomacy is narrowing.