Oil surges past $91 as Middle East tensions escalate; India cushioned by Russian imports

Crude oil prices climbed to $91.84 per barrel on Saturday as military tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified across the Middle East. Brent crude reached that level while West Texas Intermediate settled at $89.62, marking gains of 24.55 percent and 32 percent respectively since the conflict escalated. For the first time since April 2024, Brent crude crossed the $90 threshold, a milestone that typically signals market anxiety about supply disruptions and reignites concerns about inflation filtering through to consumers worldwide.

The geopolitical backdrop driving these moves was stark. President Trump claimed Iran's military infrastructure had been systematically dismantled, stating the country now possessed no functioning air force or air defense systems. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded by telling NBC News that his government had abandoned any pursuit of negotiations and was preparing for a ground invasion. The rhetoric from both sides suggested the conflict was moving beyond airstrikes into more dangerous territory, and oil markets reacted accordingly.

To put current prices in perspective, they remain well below the $139 per barrel that Brent crude reached when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Yet the trajectory was unmistakable: oil was climbing as geopolitical risk accumulated, and traders were pricing in the possibility of further supply shocks emanating from one of the world's most critical energy regions.

India, however, appeared positioned to weather the storm. A senior government official explained that the country had deliberately built redundancy into its energy supply chains, reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz—the chokepoint through which much Middle Eastern oil flows. India maintained adequate reserves of crude oil, refined petroleum products, and liquefied petroleum gas. More significantly, Indian oil companies had already begun sourcing imports from geographies outside the Gulf region, a strategic pivot that had accelerated dramatically since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The numbers told the story of this shift. In 2022, Russia accounted for just 0.2 percent of India's crude oil imports. By February 2026, that figure had climbed to 20 percent of total imports, translating to 1.04 million barrels per day flowing from Russian fields into Indian refineries. This diversification meant that even if Middle Eastern supplies tightened further, India had alternative sources to draw upon.

The government had also taken direct action to prevent consumer-facing shortages. Refineries across the country received orders to maximize liquefied petroleum gas production and prioritize domestic supply, a measure designed to prevent cooking fuel scarcity as Middle East disruptions rippled through global markets. Officials pushed back against reports suggesting the MRPL refinery had shut down, insisting instead that the facility was well-stocked and operating normally.

The contrast was instructive: while oil prices surged globally and energy security dominated headlines, India's policymakers had spent years building buffers. The country was not immune to the price shock—higher crude costs would eventually affect everything from transportation to manufacturing—but it had substantially reduced its vulnerability to the specific risk now materializing in the Middle East. Whether that cushion would prove sufficient if the conflict widened remained an open question, but for the moment, New Delhi appeared to have positioned itself better than most.