In the early hours of Wednesday, U.S. military strikes on Iran sent oil prices sharply higher, reviving anxieties that had briefly quieted since the conflict's February origins. The Strait of Hormuz — that ancient chokepoint through which so much of the world's energy flows — once again reminded markets how tightly geopolitics and commerce are bound together. Across Asia, the response was not uniform but fractured, each market reflecting its own particular exposure to risk, technology, and the shifting tides of great-power rivalry.
Oil surges 3% on US-Iran tensions as Asian markets show mixed signals
Oil climbed as traders repriced geopolitical risk
Mark
So oil jumped 3% on news of U.S. strikes on Iran. That's a meaningful move. How much of that was the geopolitical shock versus traders just repositioning?
Mimi
The timing matters. Oil had actually fallen back to pre-war levels in recent weeks, so there was room for it to move up. The strikes gave traders a concrete reason to reprice risk.
Luke
But we should note—the source doesn't tell us whether this was a one-day spike or the start of a sustained move. We know what happened Wednesday morning, not what happened by Wednesday close or Thursday.
Mark
Fair point. What about the Asian markets? They seemed all over the place.
Mimi
They were. South Korea got hit hard—the Kospi down 5.6%—because Samsung and SK Hynix are huge there and they're already under pressure over AI valuations. Hong Kong went the other way, up 2.9%, partly because of that Chinese AI startup Zhipu surging 14%.
Luke
Which is interesting because Zhipu's lock-up period was expiring. Normally that's a sell signal. But China National Radio reported that 70% of cornerstone investors are staying put. That's a single source, though—we don't have independent confirmation of those numbers.
Mark
So the market is betting on stability there?
Mimi
Or at least, investors who had the most skin in the game are signaling they're not bailing. Zhipu is up 1,300% since January, so there's a lot of paper gains to protect.
Luke
The other thing worth noting: we don't know if the geopolitical move caused the tech selloff or if it just coincided with it. The source mentions that AI valuations were already under question. The Iran strikes might have been the excuse, not the cause.
Mark
So what's the real story here?
Mimi
Markets are nervous on multiple fronts—geopolitical risk, AI overvaluation, and they're reacting differently depending on what sector and region you're looking at. There's no unified signal.
Luke
And we won't know the real impact until we see how this plays out over days and weeks, not hours.
El Pulso
- U.S. strikes on Iran following attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz sent Brent crude surging 3.2% to $76.54 a barrel, erasing weeks of gradual price retreat in a single session.
- South Korea's Kospi bore the sharpest wound, plunging 5.6% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix led a brutal selloff in semiconductor and AI-linked stocks already wobbling under valuation pressure.
- Hong Kong defied the regional gloom, climbing 2.9% as Chinese AI startup Zhipu soared 14% after nearly 70% of its cornerstone investors pledged to hold shares despite a looming lock-up expiration.
- On Wall Street, the Nasdaq fell 1.2% with AMD down 6.5%, Intel shedding 9.7%, and Rivian collapsing 18.1% after announcing a dilutive share offering — a market already questioning AI's promised returns now facing geopolitical headwinds too.
- Analysts warn that further escalation in the U.S.-Iran standoff could deepen the pressure on equity valuations, particularly in technology sectors where the gap between investment and proven profit remains uncomfortably wide.
In the early hours of Wednesday, U.S. military strikes on Iran sent oil prices sharply higher, reviving anxieties that had briefly quieted since the conflict's February origins. The Strait of Hormuz — that ancient chokepoint through which so much of the world's energy flows — once again reminded markets how tightly geopolitics and commerce are bound together. Across Asia, the response was not uniform but fractured, each market reflecting its own particular exposure to risk, technology, and the shifting tides of great-power rivalry.
Oil markets lurched upward Wednesday morning as traders processed news of fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran, itself a response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude climbed 3.2% to $76.54 a barrel and American crude matched that gain at $72.72 — a sharp reversal from the gradual drift back to pre-conflict price levels that had characterized recent weeks.
Asia's response was anything but uniform. Tokyo's Nikkei slipped a modest 1.2%, while South Korea's Kospi proved far more exposed, shedding 5.6% as Samsung Electronics fell 6.7% and SK Hynix closed down 3.6%. The Kospi's descent was striking given it had briefly cleared 9,000 just last month before waves of selling in major tech names pulled it lower. Taiwan edged up 0.6%, Shanghai dipped 0.3%, and Australia and India each lost 0.5%.
Hong Kong stood apart, rising 2.9% on the strength of a remarkable move in Zhipu, a Chinese AI startup whose shares jumped 14%. The surge came despite — or perhaps because of — the imminent expiration of a six-month lock-up for cornerstone investors from its January debut. A late-Tuesday report revealed that nearly 70% of those investors had committed to holding, defusing fears of forced selling. Since its Hong Kong listing, Zhipu has gained more than 1,300%.
The geopolitical shock landed on markets already wrestling with whether AI valuations have run ahead of the productivity gains and profits that vast chip and data center investments are expected to eventually deliver. That unease was visible on Wall Street too: the Nasdaq fell 1.2%, with AMD down 6.5%, Intel losing 9.7%, and Rivian plunging 18.1% after announcing a dilutive share offering. As one analyst noted, any further deterioration in U.S.-Iran tensions risks compounding the stress already bearing down on technology stocks — a sector that can ill afford another reason for doubt.
Oil markets jolted higher Wednesday morning as traders absorbed news of fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran, a response to attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed 3.2% to $76.54 a barrel, while American crude added the same percentage to reach $72.72. The moves marked a sharp reversal from recent weeks, when both grades had drifted back to the price levels that prevailed before the conflict with Iran erupted in late February.
Across Asia, the reaction was uneven. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index fell 1.2% to 67,426, a modest decline in the face of geopolitical risk. South Korea's Kospi proved far more vulnerable, shedding 5.6% to 7,226 as major semiconductor and AI-related stocks came under fresh pressure. Samsung Electronics dropped 6.7% early in the session, extending losses from the previous day, while SK Hynix surrendered early gains to close down 3.6%. The South Korean index has been a study in volatility this year—it briefly topped 9,000 last month before waves of heavy selling in big tech names dragged it lower.
Elsewhere in the region, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.9% to 24,178, buoyed partly by a remarkable surge in Zhipu, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup. The company's shares jumped 14% on Wednesday, a striking move given that the six-month lock-up period for cornerstone investors in its January trading debut was set to expire this week. That expiration typically triggers concerns about forced selling, but China National Radio reported late Tuesday that nearly 70% of those cornerstone investors have committed to holding their positions. Since its Hong Kong debut in early January, Zhipu has seen its share price climb more than 1,300%. Taiwan's Taiex edged up 0.6%, while Shanghai's Composite index declined 0.3% to 3,978. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.5%, and India's Sensex lost the same amount.
The geopolitical flare-up arrives at a moment when markets are already wrestling with questions about whether artificial intelligence valuations have outpaced the actual productivity gains and profits likely to materialize from massive investments in chip production and data centers. Analysts noted that the uncertainty introduced by U.S.-Iran tensions will probably dominate market direction in the hours ahead. As Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote observed, any further deterioration in the situation could weigh on equity valuations while adding stress to technology stocks already under scrutiny.
On Wall Street, the pressure on tech stocks was evident. The Nasdaq composite fell 1.2% to 25,818, dragged down by semiconductor and AI-related names. Advanced Micro Devices sank 6.5%, Intel shed 9.7%, and Micron Technology lost 4.7%. SpaceX, which owns the xAI business, fell 6.8% in its first day of trading after being added to the Nasdaq 100 index. Rivian Automotive dropped 18.1% after announcing a secondary offering of 75 million shares, a move that dilutes existing shareholders' ownership stakes. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,503, though most individual stocks within the index rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.2% from its record close to 52,925.
Currency markets showed modest movement. The U.S. dollar strengthened to 162.27 Japanese yen from 162.11, while the euro climbed to $1.1421 from $1.1414. The divergence in Asian market performance—with oil-sensitive economies and tech-heavy indices responding differently to the same geopolitical shock—underscores how fragmented global markets have become, with investors weighing multiple competing risks at once.
Citas Notables
Geopolitical headlines will likely determine market sentiment over the coming hours. A further deterioration in the situation could weigh further on equity valuations along with rising stress in technology.— Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Swissquote
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